Sub-Saharan African countries have in recent years been recording considerable economic progress. They are projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2010 compared with 1.3 percent for industrialized countries and 2.5 percent for developing countries, excluding India and China. But climate change threats to ruin their hope for further prosperity.

According to the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change, released today (September 15, 2009), a two-degree Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels could permanently reduce Africa’s annual per capita consumption by 4–5 percent.

Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions have been modest because of its low levels of industrial output. Yet they are like likely to suffer disproportionately from climate change. The report calls on industrialized countries to lead the way and help developing countries chart low-carbon economic paths.

Nearly two thirds of Africa is either dry land or desert. Water stress is already being felt. Today 20 African countries experience severe water scarcity and another 12 will be added in the next 25 years. Lake Chad (shared by Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger), for example, has lost shrunk by 80 percent over the last three decades.

Africa’s projected increase in rainfall variability will worsen its current food crises. Production of crops such as wheat is also projected to decline. These impacts are emerging at a time when much of Africa has lost its traditional crops. It is equally difficult to breed crops for a rapidly-changing climate.

A two-degree Celsius increase in temperate could wipe out up to 15 percent of Africa’s species, destroying the very biological resources needed to adapt to climate change. This would also affect non-agricultural sectors such as tourism that are dependent on the diversity of wildlife.

Climate change will also have direct impacts on human health by altering the patters of the spread of infectious diseases. It is now estimated that nearly 900 million people in Africa will be exposed to malaria by 2030 due to climate change.

But behind this seemingly dismal outlook lies a unique opportunity for Africa to lead the way in adopting low-carbon growth strategies. They are not too heavily committed to high-carbon  economies like their industrial counterparts. They therefore need to complete their demand for historical justice with the design of climate-smart policies.

They can build climate-smart economies that take advantage of the vast amounts scientific and technological knowledge that is currently available. It is estimated that growth in such knowledge is doubling every 14 months.

Building climate-smart economies will involve taking deliberate steps in at least four key areas: infrastructure; technical education; business development; and international diplomacy.

Climate-smart infrastructure is essential for adapting to climate change. The continent can lead the way in investing in renewable energy. Eastern Africa, for example, can generate over 2,500 Megawatts (MW) of electricity from geothermal energy using existing technologies, compared to the current world output of 8,100 MW.

Creating climate-smart infrastructure will require greater investment in higher technical training. They can build on current efforts to create telecommunications universities under line ministries as has been done in Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya. Ministries of agriculture, environment, water, energy, and transportation could play key roles in training local experts to climate-smart infrastructure.

Advances in new fields such as nanotechnology are offering new products that could help reduce the ecological impact of human activity. For example, Thai technologists have developed new fabrics that repel water and the associated dirt. Such fabrics require less frequent washing and only detergent industries seem to be afraid of them.

None of this will be achieved unless Africa can effectively harness the world’s available scientific and technical knowledge and put it to practical use. Africa’s higher education enrolment stands at about 5 percent, compared with nearly 50 percent in the industrialized countries.  The challenge is not simply to increase access to university education, but to ensure that institutions of higher learning can serve as engines of sustainable development, especially in their localities.

Finally, advancing climate-smart growth strategies will demand new diplomatic leadership. African ministries of foreign affairs will need to strengthen their capacity to engage in science and technology diplomacy. The choice, location, and staffing of their missions will need to reflect the urgency to identify and negotiate more technology-based agreements with other countries.

African will need to respond regionally through a broad range of measures aimed at sustaining human health, agriculture, energy, water supply, tourism, and many other vital sectors. Most of Africa’s states lack the flexibility to respond to major ecological upheavals. They need room to manoeuvre and can achieve it by integrating their economies into regional groupings.

A look into the future of climate change reveals disruptions that will take on wartime proportions. Responses must therefore match the challenges. Leaders who do not take climate change seriously will be punished by ecologically-enlightened followers. The best way to avert political turmoil is to act in time and treat the situation as a state of emergency. That means now.

Calestous Juma teaches at Harvard Kennedy School and was a major contributor to the World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change
calestous_juma@harvard.edu

STI-Less

It is no secret that Africa’s history has been marked by a development process in which the vast majority of citizens have not shared in the benefits of science, technology and innovation (STI).

This is now changing as Africa’s leaders increasingly embrace STI as prerequisites for human development, global competitiveness and ecological management.

Africa is fast becoming a continent with deep and diverse capabilities. The AU, to its credit, has provided valuable political guidance for applying STI to efforts geared to dramatically transform Africa’s overall economy. But success will also require rigorous coordination through Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs), as well as effective actions by local communities in each country.

RECs offer an excellent vehicle for mobilizing, sharing and using biotechnologies. In some regions, such forward-leaning activities will emerge without prompting. In others, such activities will need to be carefully nurtured. In every case, however, what will undoubtedly be needed are a pool of talented and skilled people and a commitment from institutions – both new and old – to be willing to foment change.

Focusing on Priorities

Food security, nutrition, health care and environmental sustainability are among Africa’s biggest challenges. Regional biotechnology efforts have a role to play in each of these areas. These roles can be successfully implemented through what the authors of Freedom to Innovate call “long-term biotechnology missions”. Clustering can take place around priority fields of biotechnology that have the highest potential for economic return and that will likely add value to regional and institutional centres where expertise currently exists.

Health biotechnology, for example, is concentrated in southern Africa. Strengths in bio-pharmaceutical research and development are to be found primarily in northern Africa. Animal biotechnology has strong roots in east Africa. Crop biotechnology is located largely in western Africa, and forest biotechnology in central Africa.

Africa’s ability to effectively use existing and emerging biotechnologies will depend largely on the level of investment made in building human, physical, institutional and societal capacities that are responsive to Africa’s needs. More specifically, RECs will need to concentrate on creating and reforming existing knowledge-based institutions, especially universities, to enable African institutions of higher education to gain the skills they need to effectively diffuse new technologies throughout the economy. Development cooperation, in turn, will need to alter its focus from its historic dependence on relief models (focusing largely on short-term needs) to competence building (which can only take place over the long term).

Simply put, investing in key capabilities designed to promote STI must be an integral part of Africa’s effort to utilize its resources and improve the social and economic well-being of all its citizens.

Responding to Needs

Africa should engage in policies to develop and expand national and regional human resources development strategies. These policies include: (1) the development of a continent-wide biotechnology curriculum – or curriculum guidelines – focusing on areas of study with the potential to generate high economic returns both in different regions and the continent as a whole; (2) support for the creation of a consortium of universities mandated to develop and offer regional biotechnology training courses; and (3) an emphasis on female recruitment in the biosciences as well as engineering.

To take advantage of the opportunities that are likely to arise from biotechnology, Africa also needs to develop and expand programmes designed to upgrade and maintain strategically important infrastructure. At the same time, linkages must be established with both domestic and foreign research networks. All African countries, from the richest to the poorest, must identify biotechnology priority areas with the potential for regional research and development (R&D) and product development, and then integrate these priorities into African regionalization processes and policies.

To improve commercialization and business capacity, Africa must support the following initiatives: (1) foster R&D cooperative partnerships at the local, regional and international levels; (2) create policy instruments that nurture business incubation and development; (3) build and sustain markets for economic growth; and (4) promote the role of technology in general and biotechnology in particular as part of a larger strategy for small- and medium-sized enterprise development.

The following mechanisms can – and should – be instituted to increase funding for biotechnology R&D in Africa: (1) raise overall national R&D budgets; (2) devise special funding mechanisms, including innovation funds and sectoral funding mechanisms under governmental ministries, some of which would generate funds that would be set aside for biotechnology research and development; (3) create targeted African funding schemes for facility renovations and expansions; (5) reform tax laws to promote research and innovation in biotechnology; and (6) enact national lotteries with a portion of the revenues obligated for universities and laboratories.

Governing biotechnology

Africa should embrace a strategic vision in which consumer protection goes hand-in-hand with the development of the biotechnology itself. Stakeholder partnerships, public awareness campaigns and well-publicized innovation competitions must be created to broaden citizen understanding and appreciation of biotechnology issues.

Emphasis should be placed on minimizing the risks associated with biotechnologies while reducing their negative impacts. Equally important, consideration should be given to the long-term implications of failing to adopt new biotechnologies. The essential point is for Africa to develop and harmonize regulations governing such critical issues as regional integration, biotechnology R&D, biosafety (including field and clinical trials) and trade in biotechnology.

Africa’s regulatory agencies need more transparency and greater scientific capacity in order to better assess biotechnology-related risks and to be able to regulate the technology’s development quickly, safely and effectively.

There is an overall need to harmonize legislation and regulations based on good practices in international organizations, continental agencies and individual countries – all within the context and prevailing responsibilities of the RECs. The pursuit of such strategies could lead to regulatory frameworks and technology development that both protect the interests of consumers and allow for the rapid development of biotechnology. Organizations such as the African Academy of Sciences (AAS) and TWAS are well positioned to provide valuable assistance and advice in guiding this process.

The Pan-African Parliament (PAP) is another institution that could help harmonize biotechnology regulations in ways that could serve the interests of both biotechnology advocates and citizens. But for PAP to be truly effective, it must strengthen its engagement with other institutions dedicated to regional and continental biotechnology initiatives. Such efforts would require PAP to upgrade its advisory capabilities, issue evidence-based policy studies and provide its own committees with technology monitoring capabilities.

Strategic considerations

Africa needs to strategically promote the application of modern biotechnology for the purposes of regional economic integration and trade. The measures that are necessary to achieve this goal include fostering the emergence of regional innovation systems in which biotechnology-related “local innovation areas” can play a pivotal role. Accomplishing this task will entail a diversity of complementary measures that include upgrading regional capacities and forging international partnerships. The ultimate goal is to promote cities or regions in which research institutes, universities and businesses can be clustered for improved efficiencies and innovation.

Funding such initiatives will involve adopting a wide range of measures aimed at generating sufficient financial resources, which would include the launch of “innovation funds”. Existing funding sources such as international and regional development banks could also play a key part in helping to commercialize products and services created by the biotechnology-related local innovation areas. Emphasis will need to be placed on technology prospecting to identify existing biotechnologies worldwide and to commercialize biotechnologies in Africa.

The RECs must begin to uncover opportunities for biotechnology specialization and for fostering the development of the regional networking of biotechnology R&D centres that have successfully developed cross-cutting specializations in this field. More generally, Africa must facilitate North-South and South-South collaboration, as well as mobilize the expertise of its diaspora, as part of a larger effort to promote economic development.

Long-term initiatives for the development of biotechnology in Africa must go hand-in-hand with broader strategies to strengthen and advance regional economies. Africa should therefore facilitate the process of regional integration and foster technological innovation as primary forces for promoting advances in biotechnology R&D. The economic payoff will likely be substantial.

Local innovation areas hold the promise of creating competitive, biotechnology-driven African economies that benefit from geographical concentrations of innovators – universities, research institutes and technology-based business firms. Countries, through their RECs, need to identify biotechnology-related fields of local relevance, and facilitate local initiatives for innovation and development so that clustering of local institutions can occur.

A great deal of potential lies in developing North-South and South-South collaboration to support biotechnology R&D and capacity-building in African regional innovation communities and local innovation areas. The RECs therefore need to identify ways of improving cooperation with other regions (particularly Asia and Latin America) to effectively address issues pertaining to biotechnology.

The AU, despite its recent success, must also strengthen its capacity to provide political guidance to member states on the role of science, technology and innovation in development. At the same time, the AU must work to extend the autonomy and expertise of regional integration agencies and local authorities. Such a comprehensive strategy provides a reasonable roadmap for turning Africa’s vision of a high-tech future, led by biotechnology and other cutting-edge technologies, into a reality.

What is true for biotechnology is true in general. Vision without action is empty; action without vision is blind.