“The Chimerican era is drawing to a close. Given the bursting of the debt and housing bubbles, Americans will have to kick their addiction to cheap money and easy credit. The Chinese authorities understand that heavily indebted American consumers cannot be relied on to return as buyers of Chinese goods on the scale of the period up to 2007.”

Niall Ferguson, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, and Moritz Schularich co-wrote “The Great Wallop,” which the New York Times published on November 16, 2009.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.org/publication/19696/

Sino-US climate talks helpful, but too late for Copenhagen
Xinhua (China)
November 14
Quoted: Robert Stavins
Topic: China-U.S. climate negotiations

Sino-U.S. exchanges on climate issues will boost global negotiations in the long run, but are unlikely to facilitate a substantial climate change deal at Copenhagen talks in December, say experts in the run-up to U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to China. …

Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, said the meeting of Hu and Obama would certainly facilitate mutual understanding on climate change issues. …

But it appeared that U.S. Congress was unlikely to complete climate legislation by the time of Copenhagen, due to great political challenges in the midst of a recession with high unemployment and other domestic priorities, Stavins told Xinhua in an e-mail interview.

“There have been dramatic changes in the political climate for climate change policy in the U.S. since President Obama took office. The timing, however, is difficult for Copenhagen,” Stavins said.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/14/content_12455539.htm

“…1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier.”

Niall Ferguson, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, wrote “The Year that Really Changed the World,” which Newsweek published in the November 16, 2009 issue.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.org/publication/19687/

“China’s policy of keeping the renminbi weak means that the US dollar must decline more rapidly against the euro, yen and other currencies to achieve the same overall trade-weighted fall of the dollar. China’s weak renminbi policy therefore not only prevents remedying China’s large current account surplus but also reduces Europe’s exports.”

Martin Feldstein, a member of the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board and the Belfer Center’s board of directors, wrote “Why the Renminbi has to Rise to Address Imbalances,” which the Financial Times published on October 30, 2009

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.org/publication/19665/

Feldstein also wrote “The Global Impact of America’s Health Care Debate,” which the Daily News Egypt published.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19666/

China, India Forge Alternative to UN Climate Treaty

Bloomberg

October 22

Quoted: Robert Stavins, Harvard Environmental Economics Program

Topic: Global climate treaty

China and India’s joint plan to cut greenhouse-gas emissions gives the developing world an alternative to the climate treaty that wealthier nations want them to sign in Copenhagen, analysts said. …

Copenhagen may produce only an agreement on principles in which richer nations take responsibility for emissions already in the atmosphere and developing countries for future pollution, said Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in an interview.

“Some people will look at that and say ‘well that’s not really so much, it’s only principles,’” Stavins said. “However it will place us probably six months or a year or two years from now where we’re more likely to have a better agreement.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a9vFLhuIfyI0

“I have rarely seen better coordination, between China and the United States in particular.”
- Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
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“For the foreseeable future the US will be growing at a much lower rate while China is in fact growing at a much faster rate.”
- Niall Ferguson, member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors
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“President Obama has offered to talk unconditionally. He’s not asked for anything to be done about the Iranian government before our negotiators get to the table in Geneva, and we’ll see if engagement does change Iranian behavior. I, frankly, am skeptical.”

Nicholas Burns, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, was interviewed in “Iran to Sit down with Six World Powers in Geneva” on NPR’s “Morning Edition” on September 30, 2009.

For the full interview, go to:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113333286
______

“At home, the president’s conservative critics charge that his engagement policy has been naive, arguing the United States should return to a more confrontational strategy based on military force.  They could not be more mistaken.”

Burns also wrote “Obama’s Opportunity in Iran,” which the Boston Globe published on October 1, 2009.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19606/

“China realizes that it faces a significant energy problem that could have severe impacts on their economy.”

Henry Lee, director of the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and a member of the Center’s board of directors, was interviewed on “China Pledges Climate Change Action,” which the BBC aired on September 23, 2009.

For the full interview, go to: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/news/2009/09/090923_climate_wt_sl.shtml

China’s Active Climate Policy Thread of Hope to Copenhagen Talks
China Radio International online
September 23
Quoted: Kelly Sims Gallagher and Robert Stavins, Belfer Center
Topic: China’s environmental policy

Kelly Gallagher, senior associate of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, said, “China’s new plan to set a domestic greenhouse gases intensity target is very intriguing.”

“It’s clear from President Hu’s speech that serious consideration is now being given to domestic policy in China. Let’s hope that the U.S. Senate is equally serious,” Gallagher, who also teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, told Xinhua in an email interview. …

U.S. President Barack Obama also addressed the summit prior to Hu’s speech. Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, said there was a remarkable consistency between the remarks of the two presidents on global climate change policy.

“Obama’s offer to work constructively with his colleagues at the G20 (meeting in the U.S. city of Pittsburgh) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies fits perfectly with Hu’s call for ‘achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes’,” said Stavins, professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

“China and the U.S. are the two most important nations in terms of the global climate, so progressive actions by these two countries are key,” he told Xinhua in an email interview.

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