“I think we got the Recovery Act right.”

Lawrence Summers, on leave from the Belfer Center’s board of directors to serve as director of the National Economic Council, was quoted in “Why won’t Obama give you a job?” which the Washington Post published on November 8, 2009.

For the full article, go to: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/06/AR2009110601900.html

“The administration earlier this year forecast that the economy would grow next year by 3.5 percent, then by 4 percent, then by 4.5 percent after that. I think that’s highly unlikely to happen. My guess is that the economy will grow in real terms at closer to 2 percent a year for the next few years.”

Niall Ferguson, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, was interviewed on “The Charlie Rose Show” on November 3, 2009.

For the full interview, go to: http://www.charlierose.com/guest/view/247

Economy Snaps Long Slump
Wall Street Journal
October 30
Quoted: Jeffrey Frankel
Topic: U.S. economic recovery

The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter after shrinking for four consecutive quarters, marking an apparent end to the worst recession since World War II. But the recovery is expected to be slow and painful, as companies shed jobs and credit remains tight.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the quarter ended in September, a rise that leaned heavily on government spending. Some of the largest components of growth came from spending on cars and house building — two areas propped up by federal programs. …

The beginnings and ends of U.S. recessions are declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit research group that defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” The group says the current downturn started in December 2007, and it isn’t likely to declare an end for some time. Still, Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard professor and a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, says the recession is likely over.

“My best guess is that we will end up declaring the trough [of the recession] was in the middle of the year sometime,” he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125681908931715735.html

“The dramatic failings of business leadership, which contributed significantly to the worst recession in 60 years, have led (as has been widely reported) to much soul-searching at business schools around the world.”

Ben Heineman, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center, wrote “A Budapest B-School Teaches Leadership at the Crossroads,” which the Harvard Business Review published on September 29, 2009.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.org/publication/19585/

“We used to be—six months ago, when the president took office, we were talking about whether recession would become depression. Today, we are talking about when recession is going to end. That is a tribute to the strength of the policies that have been put in place and the expectation that they are going to have growing impact.”

Lawrence Summers, on leave from the Belfer Center’s board of directors to serve as director of the National Economic Council, was interviewed on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on August 2, 2009

For the full interview, go to: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/02/ftn/main5205127.shtml?tag=contentBody;featuredPost-PE
_______

“We’re certainly in a very different place than we were. Six months ago, the economy was in a nosedive, people were talking about the possibility of another depression, the statistics all suggested a vertical decline. None of that is the situation right now. We’re certainly starting to see a turnaround, a turnaround in production that leads most professional forecasters to expect that if you look at economic output over the next six months, it’s actually likely to start to increase.”

Summers was also interviewed on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on August 2, 2009.

For the full interview, go to: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32241917/ns/meet_the_press/print/1/displaymode/1098/

“There’s a difference between having an expansion and an economy that has recovered.”

Lawrence Summers, on leave from the Belfer Center’s board of directors to serve as director of the National Economic Council, was quoted in “The Recession is Over,” which Newsweek published in the issue dated Aug. 3, 2009.

For the full article, go to: http://www.newsweek.com/id/208633

“Onward, then, to the toughest economic challenge Summers faces today: the recession. Here, Summers turns sombre: ‘I don’t think the worst is over … It’s very likely that more jobs will be lost. It would not be surprising if GDP has not yet reached its low. What does appear to be true is that the sense of panic in the markets and freefall in the economy has subsided and one does not have the sense of a situation as out of control as a few months ago.’”
…

“Summers is not easily seduced but he seems thrilled by the demands of his current job. ‘It is certainly incredible, as intellectually challenging as anything I’ve ever done … What makes it so challenging and exciting, as well as exhausting, is the range of subjects.’”

Lawrence Summers, on leave from the Belfer Center’s board of directors to serve as director of the National Economic Council, was profiled in “Lunch with the FT: Larry Summers,” which the Financial Times published on July 11, 2009.

For the full profile, go to: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6ac06592-6ce0-11de-af56-00144feabdc0.html

“I think it is a more likely scenario that we are seeing the favourable effects of the fiscal stimulus,” he said. “That, for a while, will offset the general diminished trend we have seen over the past two quarters, but it is a one-shot thing.”

Martin Feldstein, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, was quoted in “US Sees Light at End of the Tunnel,” which the Financial Times published on June 4, 2009.

For the full article, go to:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67c9e424-5068-11de-9530-00144feabdc0.html

“The policy mistake has already been made - to adopt the fiscal policy of a world war to fight a recession. In the absence of credible commitments to end the chronic US structural deficit, there will be further upward pressure on interest rates, despite the glut of global savings.’

Niall Ferguson, a member of the Belfer Center’s board of directors, wrote “A History Lesson for Economists in Thrall to Keynes,” which the Financial Times published on May 30, 2009.

For the full oped, go to: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19129/

“The Commerce Department this morning announced its advance estimate of last quarter’s real GDP. As expected, the estimate shows that GDP fell in the first quarter of 2009 — by a hefty 6.1 per cent at an annual rate. An implication is that the recession has just tied the post-war record for longevity.”

Jeffrey Frankel, a faculty affiliate of the Belfer Center and the James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard Kennedy School, wrote “Recession is Now Tied for Longest Since the Great Depression,” which he posted on his weblog on April 29, 2009.

For the full piece, go to: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/analysis/frankel/?p=193