The capture of the Saudi-oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden by Somali pirates illustrates both the Persian Gulf countries’ dependence upon maritime commerce and their inability secure the regional shipping lines upon which they are so dependent. Naval forces from India, Russia, and the United States have moved into the region to address the pirate threat, but even they have not been able to put a stop to it. Perhaps it is time for countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council to invest in their own joint naval force capable of policing the region’s shipping lanes.  While the assistance of the U.S. and Russia in policing regional waters has undoubtedly been helpful in addressing the current problem, can the GCC count on those contries to maintain an enduring regional presence in the future?   Cooperating on regional maritime security issues could also have powerful symbolic value, as it would demonstrate that Gulf countries are capable of addressing mutual security concerns and are not content with outsourcing their security needs.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/washington/20military.html

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/world/africa/20pirate.html?ref=world

In a bold move, pirates emanating from Somalia’s lawless coast executed a bold hijacking of a Saudi oil supertanker carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude, a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s daily output. The pirate raid was unprecedented in that it was the farthest that the pirates have ever struck, 450 nautical miles southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. This represents the pirates’ increasing ambition and the flaunting of the multinational maritime fleet that has been sent to stop them. The ransom enterprise in Somalia is estimated to bring in $30 million in this year alone. The pirates are capitalizing on the hope that the international community will lose its desire to be Somalia’s police force. However, if the international community fails to take decisive action, we may see the formation of a 21st century Barbary coast.

International piracy is not new, in fact the United States in 1784, then a new country with little naval protection, paid a yearly tribute to the swashbuckling pirates off the coast of  Northern Africa to ensure that US trade would not be impeded.

However, the Barbary pirates’ greed proved to be too much, capturing and enslaving up to a million people from France, Italy, Spain, Hol­land, Great Britain, the Americas, and even Iceland, between 1500 and 1800. Perhaps one of the largest unacknowledged slave trades in history.

Although a key difference between the Somali pirates and the Barbary Coast pirates is that the Somali pirates rarely enslave their captives, and generally return them unhurt after ransom has been paid. Also, the former Barbary pirates had their own states, whereas in Somalia, pirates function not in complicity with the state, but in the absence thereof.

Link: http://news.aol.com/article/somali-pirates-hijack supertanker/250596

In India’s Western state of Maharashtra State, police announced the arrest of a terrorist cell  alleged to have successfully planned and carried out a September bombing in the small city of Malegaon where several died. For India, which has several active insurgencies, and is the victim of many high profile terrorist attacks, this news should not be unusual, except, perhaps that the suspected perpetrators were all Hindu.

In the Hindu majority country, religious strife between the various confessional groups is not new, however, the formation of Hindu nationalist terrorist cells is. Among those arrested was an officer in the Indian army, and a Hindu nun with links to India’s former governing party, and now major opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party. This incident comes on the heels of two previous terrorist incidents where individuals tied to right-wing Hindu groups died in what the police suspect were bomb making factories.

While India has been alert to Islamic and Sikh fanaticism for some time, the Hindu phenomenon is unexpected, and quite a new dynamic. Bal Thackeray, the leader of an extreme Hindu group, wrote in the group’s weekly newsletter in June, that, ”Hindus should defend themselves from Islamist attacks by forming their own squads of suicide bombers.” And ended the the tract with a call for the long slumbering Hindu community to rise and form indigenous Hindu pseudo-Al-Qaeda cells (my term) tasked with striking the Muslim community.

India, no stranger to struggles amongst its different citizens, has been experiencing a rise in communal clashes recently, involving Christians, Muslims, and members of different castes. India is rising; becoming a rising regional and global power. However, if it wishes to maintain its position in the eyes of the world by its claim of being the world’s largest democracy, it  will have to take a firm stance with the rise of this new extremism.

Link: http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=17740721″>http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=17740721

Algeria, in contrast to many other North African countries, had engaged in a distinct Arabization policy after its disastrous war of liberation from France. The guiding idea for the victorious rebels was to turn back the clock, and reverse the impact of over 130 years of enforced French language and cultural training on a captive and sometimes not so captive population. The Algerian war of liberation bequeathed to Algeria the dubious title of “The Country of a Million and a Half Martyrs.”

After the war of independence ended with the Evian Accords in March of 1962, and culminated with the French President Charles de Gaulle proclaiming Algerian independence on July 3, of that year. The Algerian conflict was considered to be the birthplace of systematic torture techniques used by French counter insurgency forces against a civilian population. It has been further alleged that special operatives from the French Army formed a so-called “French School,” whereby French Intelligence agents taught their Chilean and Argentinean counterparts on the finer points of torture and disappearances, which were expansively used during those countries’ dirty wars against leftists. In Algeria, torture was utilized, not to gain short term intelligence, but to systematically break the morale of the populace.

The fissures that the Algerian conflict caused in French society have been blamed for everything from the riots in the North African banlieues (suburbs) outside of Paris during 2005, and torture techniques directed against suspected insurgents in Abu Gharib. Even President Bush has been keen to pick up on analogies with the Iraq war. There is still much study that needs to be conducted to fully understood the migration paths of torture techniques emanating from Algeria to South America, and the alleged role that they had in the formation of the then named School of the Americas, now the “Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation.”

Roger Trinquier, the principal French Theorist of modern counter-insurgency warfare, made his imprint on the French Army in its Algerian operations. The influence of Trinquer’s theories on modern warfare techniques cannot be understated. His robust support of stripping prisoner of war status from those who are accused of terrorist actions, and the right to subject them to torture, has had a not insignificant impact on modern Western armies.

The Algerian conflict defined a whole generation, presaging the introspection that the Vietnam war induced in many American students and young people.  Many notables such as Albert Camus, Jean-Paul Sartre, and Franz Fanon cut their literary teeth on the Algerian conflict. In fact, Fanon developed his  psychopathology theory of colonialism based on his time in Algeria during this tumultuous period.

After the French departed, the Algerian revolutionary leadership sought to erase the vestiges of French rule by orienting the culture to the Arab world, and Islam. This process was called Ta’reeb (lit. to become Arab or Arabization). However, Algeria did not have enough local teachers to teach Arabic or Islam, so the leadership imported many teachers from Egypt and many other Arab countries that supported the more austere form of Islamic belief, which was something new to Algerian culture. Add to that potent mix, high unemployment, and a geriatric and autocratic leadership, the stage was set for the Algerian civil war to break out in 1991 after the Government canceled the first election round when the Islamist backed parties made a particularly strong showing. The conflict is still festering in the hinterlands despite the surrender of the main opposition group, the Islamic Salvation Front, in 2002. In this conflict between government forces and various Islamist factions, up to 200,000 lives have been estimated to have been lost. The article explains the creation of two Algerias, and how these two Algerias have split the society. One looks towards France, and is militantly secular; the other gazes to Saudi Arabia, and seeks to return to its Arab/Islamic origins. The Algerian leadership, in attempting to undercut the allure of the radical element to the young, is introducing some elements of French education into the society and educational system.

Link:http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/23/africa/23algeria.php?page=1

The Saudi Monarch, King Abdullah, in Washington D.C. for the emergency economic summit convened to deal with the global financial crisis, pledged to invest up to $400 Billion in the Saudi oil sector over the coming years.

Link: http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/bbdp/saudi-king-400-billion-investment-in-oil/249513

In a recent meeting with the Central Command Chief, Gen. David Petreaus, Pakistani Prime Minister, Asif Ali Zardari, urged the General to halt all drone-or in Army parlance, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)- attacks in Pakistani territory. This comes on the heels of a sharp Pakistani outcry over a US military raid on Sept. 3rd, that resulted in the alleged deaths of 20 Pakistani villagers in the village of Musa Nika, near the Afghan border. US military officials claimed that they were in hot pursuit of Taliban elements who regularly use the restive frontier region to launch cross border attacks on NATO forces. In further escalation of the deteriorating US-Pakistani relationship, Pakistani Intelligence officials on Sept. 15, 2008, claimed to have repelled an attempted US cross-border raid by gunfire from Pakistani troops.

Drone use has increased throughout the Afghan theater, in part to counter Pakistani anger over US troop incursions, as well as limit NATO troop exposure to resurgent Taliban attacks, which increased by 30%, when compared to the same time last year. The Bush Administration has deployed a network of pilot-less drones along the Afghan-Pakistani border, tasked with tracking and assassinating high value targets. However, the Bush Administration is facing the unsavory potential of having its drones challenged by US-supplied Pakistani F-16s, as Pakistani Army Chief, Pervez Kiyani, vowed to defend the country against US incursions ”at all costs.”

From Afghanistan to Yemen, it is easy to see why the Bush administration has relied so much on drones. Each one costs only $4.2 million; when compared to the price of one F-22; you can build more than 40. No families, no sleep, no pension, and no funerals. To get a glimpse of its successes, a Predator drone tracked and killed an al-Qaeda leader, Abu Ali al-Harithi, when he was traveling in the Yemeni desert. And during his last hours, a Predator tracked Iraqi insurgency leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. An apt comparison is that a drone are akin to a satellite, but does not need a fixed orbit,  and is equipped with infrared sensors and deadly hell fire missiles at its side.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced previously that based on the relative gains made in Iraq-in a large part due to drones-, NATO commanders are hoping to “re-create” the Iraq effort and “replicate it in Afghanistan with additional assets.” President Zardari, in response to the stepped up use of drones, stated that the US focus should be on “enhanced coordination and intelligence sharing” rather than unilateral, and what he considers to be counter productive, military solutions to the “International War on Terror” effort.

Under the Army’s nearly $200 billion Future Combat Systems, Artificial Intelligence capable drones over the world’s battlefields will soon become a reality. Although many moral quandaries are raised by the use of robot pilots with a mandate to track, and perhaps eventually, strike at targets without any human oversight. The army foresees a future with autonomous drones crisscrossing the globe, enhanced with facial recognition software to be able to observe wanted terrorists. However, as the public outcry against subjecting American troops to wearisome wars grows stronger, and nations complain of US cross border special forces’ raids, we can expect the use of these robot warriors to only increase.

Link:http://blogs.abcnews.com/worldview/2008/11/zardari-to-cent.html

The IAEA’s ex post investigation of the Syrian nuclear site bombed by Israel last September remains inconclusive in terms of whether or not the site housed a nuclear reactor. Traces of uranium were found, however. That the site remained hidden from the IAEA for so long and that the agency’s director is now calling on individual countries to share their satellite intelligence on the site indicates that the body is currently incapable of reliably fulfilling its mandate. As almost a dozen Middle Eastern countries have declared their interest in developing civilian nuclear programs, the Syrian case raises serious questions about whether the IAEA will be able ensure that civilian nuclear programs do not contribute to clandestine weapons programs.

Link: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/11/17/news/ML-Nuclear-Syria.php

According to a recent article in the International Herald Tribune, the upside for some Emiratis as they face the global financial downturn could be the chance to reclaim the culture lost by the influx of foreigners during the recent boom.

With 69 percent of the population of the Middle East under 29 - and their jobless rates at twice the world average -  The National argues, with data and commentary from the Middle East Youth Initiative that the Obama administration should look to improving education and employment opportunities for young people.

Brazil, the silent giant of South America, known more for its bright future, than sharp words-as compared with its erstwhile friendly regional rival, Venezuela, is positioning itself to join the ranks of the major oil producers. Recently, the largest discovery of oil in the Western Hemisphere for a generation, was discovered 180 miles of its coast. This, along with other large-scale, back-to-back, oil finds, has caused Brazil to reinvent itself from being a net oil importer, to inquiring about OPEC membership criteria.

Brazil’s new oil find is some of the most challenging oil to produce, requiring advanced technology and specialized skills, something that the national oil company, Petroleo Brazileiro (Petrobras), has in abundance. But Brazil is a shining anomaly in a region that has other mature oil producers losing their gloss. Mexico’s national oil company, PEMEX, is losing the production battle, while Mexico is facing going from a net oil exporter- approximately 1.6 million barrels per day, to an importer within the next decade.

Venezuela’s national oil company, PDVSA, under the stewardship of President Hugo Chavez, is slipping. It went from 3.1 million barrels per day in 1999, to 2.6 million barrels in 2007. The production drop is at least partly attributed to the drag of the social welfare spending which Chavez champions, instead of oil field reinvestment.

Petrobras, however, has invested heavily in its deep water drilling expertise and technological skills, which has thus, so far, enabled it to navigate past the ills afflicting the other Latin American national oil companies. If Brazil exercises the mature leadership that has garnered it accolades from the international community since the end of its brutal military dictatorship in 1985, it will be an example to all of South America. It will illustrate that the poor governance that results from the “oil curse,” is not necessarily preordained.

Link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0dcb6f1c-8906-11dd-a179-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1