Gallup recently conducted a poll in Yemen examining issues related to governance which revealed a concerning difference between the opinions of respondents in the former North and former South which were unified in 1990. On a number of items, ordinary citizens in the North were shown to have much higher trust in national institutions. For example, major differences were seen in levels of trust in the national government and local police with 59% of northerners indicating that they trusted the national government while 50% said they trusted the police. On the other hand, only 29% of southerners trusted these two institutions.

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Two recent pieces in the NY Times and in Foreign Affairs have highlighted the challenges that Hamas has been facing from religious extremists in Gaza over recent months. They both note the armed confrontation with Jund Ansar Allah as well as criticisms by some that Hamas has not fully implemented the shari’a. Although some of its more radical supporters have attempted to institute certain dress restrictions for women and girls or other elements of Islamic law, senior officials have routinely overturned the edict.

These two pieces highlight one of the greatest challenges for Hamas—and for any religious party—to translate religious rhetoric into actual policies. It may seem counterintuitive that Hamas would be unsupportive of implementing religious law, but this issue lies at the heart of the current dilemma for Hamas.

Since its formation, Hamas’ base has consisted of individuals who are more supportive of religious rule as well as those who take a more militant approach toward Israel. However, Hamas’ victory in the 2006 election was the result of being able to expand this base to win the support of more moderate Palestinians as well. Thus, while some have attributed Hamas’ refusal to implement the shari’a as an attempt to appear more moderate in the eyes of external actors, likely the reason has much more to do with domestic support for the party.

The basic problem for Hamas lies in the differences in support for the shari’a in theory compared to in practice. In opinion polls, calls for the implementation of the shari’a tend to be popular. The connotation of the word suggests the correct way or path, which few individuals would not support. This positive association is so strong that even some largely secular regimes claim that the shari’a is the basis for all laws.

Yet, when elements of the shari’a have been implemented, it has not been overly popular with ordinary citizens. For example, after Muslim Brotherhood candidates in Jordan performed well in the 1989 election, they sought to implement parts of the shari’a. One such change limited the circumstances in which males could interact with females in public space. One implication was that fathers could no longer watch their daughters play sports since unrelated females were also present. After strong public resistance, this law was soon overturned.

Given its campaign promises for implementing laws in accordance with the shari’a, Hamas faces a critical challenge in managing its supporters. If it continues to resist calls for its implementation, then likely many members of its traditional base will lose faith in the movement and found new groups or parties more committed to the full implementation of the shari’a. On the other hand, if Hamas does implement the shari’a, more moderate supporters will likely become less supportive given that they are more supportive of the shari’a in theory than in practice. Thus, its future success as a party lies largely in its ability to resolve this dilemma.

Link: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65417/barak-mendelsohn/hamas-and-its-discontents

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/08/14/world/AP-ML-Palestinians-Gaza-Shootout.html

A recent poll by Stan Greenberg has revealed that support for Hamas is relatively low in both Gaza and the West Bank. Within Gaza, 42% of respondents indicated that they disapproved strongly while a further 16% said that they disapprove of Hamas. In the West Bank, attitudes towards Hamas were somewhat less extreme, with only 16% of respondents stating that they strongly disapprove of Hamas and 41% saying that they disapproved.

The general interpretation tends to be that Hamas has lost popularity due to its record in office. After all, campaigning is much different than governing. Hamas won support in the 2006 election largely due to Fatah’s corruption and its rejection of the peace process. However, the outcome of Hamas’ rule in Gaza have lessened the popularity of these positions. Most important, the devastation of the Israeli attack on Gaza demonstrated the drawbacks of Hamas’ approach towards the peace process. Continued war and destruction is not the desired outcome for most ordinary Palestinians. Additionally, there is evidence to suggest that Hamas has been involved in corruption itself, especially in the aftermath of the conflict in Gaza. For example, Hamas forces seized UN food aid in order to oversee its preferential distribution to its supporters. Somewhat weakened on these two issues, it is unclear how well Hamas would fare in a future election.

This interpretation, however, is overly simplistic. Even while in opposition, according to a poll done by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, support for Hamas was considerably lower than Fatah in late 2005. In fact, support was at that time was very similar to what Greenberg’s poll revealed. Shortly before the 2006 election, stated support for Hamas stood at 27.7% while stated support for Fatah was 45.0%. In the recent poll, Greenberg found that support for Hamas was 28% while support for Fatah was 45%.While elections are not likely at least until after a unity government is formed, Hamas finds itself at a familiar disadvantage that it was able to overcome in the last election when it won 44.5% of the vote. This time, however, Hamas has its own record in power to defend which makes it uncertain if it could overcome a similar deficit once again. Nevertheless, given the similarity between the numbers, it would be a mistake to assume that Hamas is down for the count.

Link: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1251804506032&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Link: http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2005/p18e1.html

Homeland Security expert, Dr. James Carafano, has an unique idea for nations contemplating defensive measures against the audacious pirates in the Horn of Africa: Lasers.

Most people are familiar with directed energy weapons through the legacies of such epic cinema productions as Star Wars and Buck Rogers. After the real-time pursuit of these weapons, Reagan administration opponents argued that the much maligned Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) program epitomized everything that was wrong with defense acquisitions.

Fascination with the potential offensive and defensive capability of focused light beams is said to have originated from the Roman siege of Syracuse in 212 B.C.  Ancient writings tell of how Archimedes constructed a hexagonal mirror, as part of a complex that included more distant quadrangular mirrors, manipulated by a network of hinges. This complex concentrated the sun’s light to an intensity that incinerated objects an arrow’s flight away. With this device, Archimedes is credited with setting fire to the entire Roman fleet, thus saving his homeland.

In more recent times, renowned (but now mostly forgotten) scientist, Nicola Tesla, presented a detailed schema for directed energy weaponry that he considered to be “teleforce” weapons. The press sensationalized his plans with the moniker, “the Death Ray.”  His detailed research was published in 1937 under the title,”The Art of Projecting Concentrated Non-dispersive Energy through the Natural Media.” Tesla enthusiastically explained that:

[The nozzle would] send concentrated beams of particles through the free air, of such tremendous energy that they will bring down a fleet of 10,000 enemy airplanes at a distance of 200 miles from a defending nation’s border and will cause armies to drop dead in their tracks.

But much like the scientists who labored on Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative, Telsa innocently dreamt that his horrendous device would be the catalyst that would make war obsolete, and lead all rational stakeholders to the path of world peace. He attempted to sell his device to the American and European defense establishments, but found no buyers. For many subsequent decades, directed energy weapon research languished due to the inability to construct a power generation device more portable than a stationary nuclear power plant, and the nearly game-ending inability to prevent “blooming,” that is the plasma breakdown that air - as a conductor – experiences in collision with incredibly massive amounts of high intensity thermal energy.

While hopes for yesteryear’s larger-than-life projects survive most frequently in the hearts of die-hard enthusiasts, current research focuses on more immediate, practical applications that might not exclude currently ongoing conflicts. This new generation of weapons may include devices produced by Ionatron, a US-based publicly traded company that developed the Joint IED Neutralizer (JIN) to safely neutralize IEDs in war zones. Even with extremely successful tests that destroyed 90% of the IEDs, bureaucratic red tape delayed the launch of this remarkable, arguably defensive, tool. The US military has also created a multimillion dollar research-and-develop program to develop nonlethal energy weapons for use in international hot spots.

The Pulsed Energy Projectile system (PEP), while apparently not yet deployed, has already drawn ire from human rights activists due to its ability to introduce intense pain from distances of 2-km using microwaves. Not limited to combat scenarios, the PEP was intended to quell riots, and to induce maximum pain, without subsequent tissue damage.

Click here to see it being tested on US soldiers simulating a civil disturbance.

While the current directed energy weapon systems are a vastly scaled down version than those envisioned in science fiction films, or even the imagination of early 20th century scientists such as Tesla, their application on some scale seems a matter of certainty. Whether they can stop determined pirates is another matter.

Link: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/12/analyst-use-las/

On May 5, 2009, Senator Bob Graham, two-term Governor of Florida, US Senate member for 18 years, and former Belfer Center Senior Fellow,  gave a talk  called “From 9/11 to Obama: US Relations with the Muslim World” at the Dubai School of Government. In his talk, Senator Graham discussed the nature of US relations with the Arab world in the Obama Era, a relationship, he said, that would now be marked with pragmatism, hope, and mutual respect.

For more information on the talk, read this article in Zawya.

For more information from DSG and to access the presentation’s multimedia, click here.

A recent NY Times article highlighted Syria’s return from isolation.Noting that only a year ago it was being “vilified as a dangerous pariah,” today Syria is being thought of as a potential key to regional stability.Much of this change is the result of a new approach by the U.S. in light of the failure of the Bush administration’s policies toward Syria.

Nevertheless, some in the U.S. have argued against this softer approach claiming that Syria’s behavior has not changed and therefore it should not be rewarded in this manner.Those individuals, however, should take clear note of the words of a senior Syrian analyst close to the regime.He states, “There are some here who miss the Bush administration, because at least with them you knew where you stood. With Obama, the American demands have not really changed, but there is an impression of a new era and an expectation of new results from us.”

In other words, the policy goals have changed little, but the words and tone used to communicate U.S. demands have greatly changed.The tough rhetoric of the Bush years only led to an entrenchment in the Syrian position.While some inside Syria are trying to portray this change in U.S. policy as a victory for Syria, the regime is clearly feeling greater pressure than before to alter its behavior. It is a welcome relief that the new U.S. administration understands the value of diplomacy and the benefits that this approach can bring.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/world/middleeast/27syria.html?ref=middleeast

The recent bombings in Yemen are a stark reminder of the dangers facing the US on the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen is on the verge of becoming—if it has not already—a failed state. While the central government is still nominally in control, there have been numerous challenges to it in recent years. Given the geostrategic importance of Yemen and the threat of any failed state to US national security, it is imperative that US policy makers do not lose sight of this country amidst the ongoing challenges in the region.

Yemen, the historic homeland of the Bin Laden family, is one of the poorest societies on earth and by far the poorest country in the Arab world. The vast majority of the population still lives in rural areas in traditional communities.

At present, Yemen is facing three primary challenges, any of which could potentially bring down the state. The first is the rise of religious extremists who have been perpetrating terrorist attacks in recent years. Yemen recently arrested twelve Islamists in connection with the attacks and their nature is reminiscent of numerous other terrorist attacks in Yemen on tourists as well as the US embassy bombing last year. Using terrorist tactics, these extremists—who are suspected to be affiliated with al-Qaeda—are seeking to expel all foreign influences and bring religious rule to Yemen.

The second challenge is the ongoing war in the northern Sa’ada province. In this case, rebels loyal to members of the al-Houthi clan have been challenging the regime’s rule since the summer of 2004. While the regime declared an end to fighting last July (as it has numerous times in the past), resentment runs high and renewed fighting could break out at any time. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that jihadist groups from other provinces have been congregating in Sa’ada and new fighting could break out at any point.

Third, opposition supporters based in the former South Yemen (P.D.R. Yemen) have been holding massive protests and strikes against the government. The opposition Joint Meetings Party (JMP), which includes the Islamist Islah party and numerous leftist parties, is seeking greater access to power and a more equitable electoral process among other demands. Given that the South seceded in 1994 leading to a civil war won by the North, the threat of a renewed conflict is very real.

Also of note is the recent announcement that parliamentary elections—due to be held next month—would be delayed for two years. The JMP had sought concessions from the regime including significant revisions to the electoral law prior to the elections. However, no changes were agreed upon in time for the scheduled elections leading to an agreement between the regime and the opposition to delay the elections, thereby giving more time to undertake electoral reform.

Given the regime’s insistence on holding elections as scheduled for the previous year and its general disregard for the opposition, it is clear that it fears the opposition has made real gains. Nevertheless, given the regime’s past behavior, it is unclear if the delay will lead to promised reform or is simply a delaying tactic to try to co-opt enough opposition leaders prior to new elections to guarantee the JMP’s official participation. If the regime is in fact pursuing the second strategy, it is likely that popular protests will resurface in the near future given the unmet popular demand for political reform.

In sum, Yemen is facing significant challenges and it is unclear if it has the ability to overcome them. In a state as weak as Yemen, one such challenge might be enough to bring down the state, meaning it faces a significant risk of complete collapse. While there may appear to be more pressing demands for US attention in the region, the potential of state failure in Yemen represents a very significant threat to US national security in the years to come.

As such, it is critical that the US work to strengthen the central government. Yet, simply increasing the regime’s capacity is insufficient. Rather, the US must seek to improve conditions for Yemenis throughout the country. Much of the current resentment is the result of failed development strategies, including the failure of the discovery of oil a decade ago to bring any significant improvements in the quality of life for ordinary people. Additionally, it is important to encourage the government to meet some of the opposition’s demands for political reform to allow Yemenis a greater voice in the system leading to hope for better governance in the future.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/world/middleeast/16yemen.html?ref=middleeast

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/world/middleeast/17briefs-ARRESTSINATT_BRF.html?ref=middleeast

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7949961.stm

Check out DI Fellow Justin Dargin’s thoughts on Egypt’s current proposal to tax energy-free zones in the latest issue of MEED.

File Download: “Cairo reviews free zone tax.” (PDF)

A recent Haaretz article reports that Fatah’s political leadership has told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that unity talks will be aimed primarily at forming a caretaker government to pave the way for fresh elections. Assuming that this government recognizes Israel, it appears that the US is generally supportive of this effort.

Yet, what would result from fresh elections? A recent public opinion poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey research indicates that Hamas only trails Fatah by 7% in the Palestinian Territories. However, polls tend to underestimate support for Hamas due to the fact that supporters of smaller Islamist groups such as Islamic Jihad are likely to vote for Hamas. This means that Hamas will receive another 5% or so of support in fresh elections. As such, the two parties appear to remain deadlocked with around 20% of the population being undecided.

While fresh elections could prove surprising, at present there is little reason to believe that the overall outcome would be vastly different from 2006. If the electoral system remains the same, Hamas is likely to hold on to its parliamentary majority and there is a real chance Hamas might win the presidency if Marwan Barghouti is not released from prison. Without significant movement on the peace process or another major development, fresh elections would likely to lead to a continuation of the current political stalemate. If US leaders are pinning their hope that this will result in a Fatah-dominated government that can work towards peace, then this seems like nothing more than wishful thinking.

Link: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1070450.html

Link: http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2009/p31epressrelease.html

A recent report published in the Lancet medical journal showed that “the trend for stunting among Palestinian children is increasing, and that there is a concern about the long-term effects.” The report shows that there are pockets in northern Gaza where the level of stunted growth among children reaches thirty percent. Stunting, which is caused by chronic malnutrition and affecting cognitive development and physical health, poses a serious threat to normal childhood development and may cause severe health problems for children in the future. The report’s conclusions that the main reasons for the ailing Palestinian health system are the occupation, the recent conflict in Gaza, and inter-Palestinian fighting stress the need for an honest assessment of the health situation within the context of broader Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

Thus, the Israeli government’s dismissal of the report as “propaganda in the guise of a medical report” is disheartening. Measuring stunted growth among children represents objective health data collection. Regardless of partisan persuasions, the percentage of Palestinian children who now suffer from stunted growth remains ten percent. Dismissing the report as one-sided does not change the medical facts on the ground, which clearly indicate that the Palestinian population in Gaza is facing a dangerous and worsening health situation, one that certainly has implications on any future prospects for peace.

Link: http://www.thelancet.com/series/health-in-the-occupied-palestinian-territory

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7924199.stm