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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

 

By Date

 

2015

July 24, 2015

"The Iran Deal and the ‘Problem of Conjecture’"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In making the case for his nuclear-arms-control deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran, President Obama has confronted Congress with a stark choice. "There really are only two alternatives here," he declared at last week's press conference. "Either the issue of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon is resolved diplomatically through a negotiation or it's resolved through force, through war."

This binary argument is so central to his administration's case that the president provided a second formulation: Without the deal, he said, "we risk even more war in the Middle East, and other countries in the region would feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear programs, threatening a nuclear arms race in the most volatile region in the world."

 

 

July 3, 2015

"The nasty Greek outcomes that democracy precludes"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In Anthony Burgess’s dystopian novel A Clockwork Orange, written in the invented language “Nadsat,” the degenerate hooligan Alex ultimately resolves to settle down. “Tomorrow is all like sweet flowers and the turning vonny earth,” wrote Burgess, “and your old droog Alex all on his oddy knocky seeking like a mate.” Burgess’s US publisher thought this ending too happy, and axed the final chapter.

 

 

International Monetary Fund

June 1, 2015

"More Keynesian than Keynes"

Op-Ed, Project Syndicate

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

CAMBRIDGE – Like most people who create an “ism,” John Maynard Keynes quickly found his followers running ahead of him. “You are more Keynesian than I am,” he once told a young American economist. Now it is the turn of his biographer, Robert Skidelsky, to become distinctly more Keynesian than Keynes.

 

 

May 19, 2015

"The Economic Consequences of Mr. Osborne"

Op-Ed, Project Syndicate

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

CAMBRIDGE – “If the facts change,” John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have said, “I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?” It is a question his latter-day disciples should be asking themselves now.

 

 

May 11, 2015

"The Rise and Fall of Krugmania in the UK"

Op-Ed, The Huffington Post

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

It is already conventional to name the former party leaders Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage as the biggest losers of the British general election, closely followed by all the opinion pollsters and the narcissistic comedian Russell Brand. But this is to understate the abject defeat suffered by some Keynesian economists, and in particular the Nobel prize winning former Princeton professor Paul Krugman.

 

 

May 3, 2015

"I'll take the high road to London"

Op-Ed, The Sunday Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

‘The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees,” declared Dr Johnson, “is the high road that leads him to England!”

It is very doubtful that either Alex Salmond or the Scottish National party’s new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, would agree. Nevertheless, if Salmond wakes up on May 8 as the newly elected MP for the Aberdeenshire constituency of Gordon, the prospect that will greet him will indeed be the high road to England.

 

 

Wikimedia Commons

Friday, February 13, 2015

"The meaning of the Minsk agreement"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The world loves a peace agreement. The beauty of any deal like the Ukraine ceasefire agreed in the early hours of Thursday morning is that it can be presented in two equally interesting ways. Either it is “Camp David”, a transcendent moment of reconciliation between sworn enemies. Or it is “Munich”, a lapse back into the appeasement of dictators.

 

2014

(Sipa via AP Images)

November 26, 2014

"K of the Castle"

Op-Ed, TLS (Times Literary Supplement)

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Niall Ferguson writes about Henry Kissinger's most recent book, World Order.

Henry Kissinger does not dwell in detail on Obama’s record of strategic incoherence in this magisterial meditation on the international system. Yet it is not too difficult to read between the lines that this book has been inspired at least partly by dismay at the amateurism of the past six years and dread of the risks inherent in the strategy-less approach.

 

 

October 28, 2014

"The Return of Volatility Is Mainly About Monetary Policy"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Four weeks ago I was in London at a conference organized by one of the biggest U.S. banks. The program included a session with the dread title, “2014, The Death of Volatility?” As it followed a rash of similar presentations and articles this year—“The Strange Death of Volatility,” “The Day Volatility Died” and the like—I knew from experience that a spike in volatility was imminent. And sure enough, since the end of last month, financial markets around the world have gone from gliding up an escalator to riding a bucking bronco.

 

 

September 21, 2014

"Scotland’s No echoes Europe’s Yes to grand coalitions"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The union is saved. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist first minister, has resigned. All the ink spilled on the benefits and costs of an independent Scotland can be consigned to counterfactual history. The only pressing question is the significance – and consequences – of the No vote.

 

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