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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

 

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October 28, 2014

"The Return of Volatility Is Mainly About Monetary Policy"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Four weeks ago I was in London at a conference organized by one of the biggest U.S. banks. The program included a session with the dread title, “2014, The Death of Volatility?” As it followed a rash of similar presentations and articles this year—“The Strange Death of Volatility,” “The Day Volatility Died” and the like—I knew from experience that a spike in volatility was imminent. And sure enough, since the end of last month, financial markets around the world have gone from gliding up an escalator to riding a bucking bronco.

 

 

September 21, 2014

"Scotland’s No echoes Europe’s Yes to grand coalitions"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The union is saved. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist first minister, has resigned. All the ink spilled on the benefits and costs of an independent Scotland can be consigned to counterfactual history. The only pressing question is the significance – and consequences – of the No vote.

 

 

AP Images

August 1, 2014

"War: In History's Shadow"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

A century has passed since the guns of August 1914 ended the era of European predominance with a deafening bang. Could such a catastrophe recur in our time?

Niall Ferguson writes: "The sequence of events since the Malaysian jet MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine is remarkably similar to the one that followed the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914. Now, as then, the crisis begins with an act of state-sponsored terrorism. Now, as then, Russia sides with the troublemakers. Even the request by the Dutch government for access to the site where so many of their nationals perished is reminiscent of the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia. Now, as then, ownership of a seemingly unimportant region of eastern Europe is disputed."

 

 

AP

June 22, 2014

"What Would the Iron Lady Do?"

Op-Ed, The Sunday Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

Far from being the mere dogmatist many thought her, Thatcher was a realist
whose boldness won the Cold War. Niall Ferguson explains how her strategy
would counter the greatest threat of the 21st century — the rise of Islamism.
 

 

BBC-2

February 23, 2014

Why Obama Must Stop History Repeating Itself

Op-Ed, The Sunday Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

It is hard indeed to romanticise the First World War. Those khaki uniforms have none of the glamour of the redcoats worn by British soldiersback in 1775 or 1815. Good luck to anyone who wants to re-enact the effects of a machinegun on advancing infantry or the impact of a howitzershell on a trench.

 

 

AP Images

February 21, 2014

"Niall Ferguson: America's Global Retreat"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Never mind the Fed's taper, it's the U.S. geopolitical taper that is stirring world anxiety. From Ukraine to Syria to the Pacific, a hands-off foreign policy invites more trouble.

 

 

November 6, 2013

U.S. and China Both Need Economic Rehab

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Moritz Schularick

Nearly seven years have passed since we coined the word Chimerica in these pages to characterize the symbiotic relationship between China and America. Few today would dispute that op-ed's original point: that the unbalanced economic relationship between China and America posed a threat to global financial stability. Without the flow of Chinese savings into U.S. dollars, as a result of Beijing's large-scale currency intervention and reserve accumulation, American interest rates would surely have been higher and the housing bubble would have inflated less.

 

 

June 3, 2013

"The E.U.'s Feeble War on Unemployment"

Op-Ed, The New York Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Pierpaolo Barbieri, Former Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program, 2011–2013

"Banking regulation may not be the most voter-friendly topic. Yet the reality is that the best way to create employment in the periphery is by ending the fragmentation of the financial system that continues to plague Europe. As long as Greek, Portuguese, Spanish or Italian entrepreneurs need to pay a premium of between 4 and 6 percent above what their German counterparts pay on bank loans, how can they possibly start new businesses?"

 

 

November 30, 2012

"Turning Points"

Op-Ed, The New York Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

We yearn for turning points, writes Niall Ferguson. "Just as economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions, so journalists have surely reported nine out of the last five revolutions. Every election is hailed as epoch-making. Every president is expected to have a new foreign policy 'doctrine.' A minor redesign of a cellular phone is hailed by the devotees of the Apple cult as a 'paradigm shift.'"

 

 

October 15, 2012

"What Biden Doesn't Want You to Know"

Op-Ed, The Daily Beast

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Current veep Joe Biden certainly sought to play last Thursday’s vice-presidential debate for laughs. Embarrassingly for Democrats, the laughs were mainly his own. Guffawing, chortling—all but slapping his thighs and wiping away the tears—Biden might equally well have been arguing about the relative merits of whiskey and poteen in a hostelry with a name like 'The Shamrock'" writes Niall Ferguson.

 

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