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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

 

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May 21, 2012

"London's Last Waltz"

Op-Ed, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Niall Ferguson writes that those planning to come to London for the Olympics should read Joseph Roth’s Radetzky March. For London today, he says, resembles nowhere more closely than fin-de-siècle Vienna—in good ways, but also in bad.

 

 

AP Photo

May 2, 2012

"Merkel Can Achieve Fiscal Union in Europe"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Pierpaolo Barbieri, Former Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program, 2011–2013

"Europe's monetary union is neither the joint checking account of a dysfunctional family nor a latter-day gold standard. It was always meant to be a staging post on the road to a federal Europe. Today the biggest threat to its survival is no longer the economic consequences of austerity; it is the political consequences, in the form of populist, anti-European, usually xenophobic fringe parties. Almost everywhere but Germany, such parties are gaining support."

 

 

April 30, 2012

"African Game Change"

Op-Ed, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"In the years that lie before us, a great struggle will play out south of the Sahara: a struggle between man and Malthus. According to the Rev. Thomas Malthus’s famous principle—sometimes called the Malthusian trap—population grows geometrically, but the supply of food increases arithmetically. Viewed in those terms, many African countries today seem doomed to misery and vice," writes Belfer Center International Council member Niall Ferguson, "So is Africa heading over a demographic waterfall? Maybe not....Two things are changing the continent’s prospects. The first is the surging demand for the natural resources that are so abundant in Africa....The other game changer is mobile telephony....cellphones are giving poor Africans access to basic financial services for the first time."

 

 

AP Photo

May 17, 2010

"The End of the Euro"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Just when it seemed safe to start using the word "recovery," a Greek crisis is threatening the world economy, and the very existence of the world's second-biggest currency."

 

 

AP Photo

February 11, 2010

"A Greek Crisis is Coming to America"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"...[T]he idiosyncrasies of the eurozone should not distract us from the general nature of the fiscal crisis that is now afflicting most western economies. Call it the fractal geometry of debt: the problem is essentially the same from Iceland to Ireland to Britain to the US. It just comes in widely differing sizes."

 

 

AP Photo

January/February 2010

"What 'Chimerica' Hath Wrought"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, American Interest

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"For a time, [Chimerica] was a symbiotic relationship that seemed like a marriage made in heaven. Put simply, one half did the saving, the other half the spending. Comparing net national savings as a proportion of Gross National Income, American savings declined from above 5 percent in the mid 1990s to virtually zero by 2005, while Chinese savings surged from below 30 percent to nearly 45 percent. This divergence in saving patterns allowed a tremendous explosion of debt in the United States, for one effect of the Asian "savings glut" was to make it much cheaper for households to borrow money than would otherwise have been the case."

 

 

AP Photo

December 2, 2009

"How to Take Moral Hazard out of Banking"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"As Dubai World's default shows, the financial crisis is far from over. Surprise, surprise, among the creditors with the biggest exposure is Royal Bank of Scotland - a reminder that reckless lending by supersized banks was a global phenomenon. Taxpayers are entitled to ask for a radical reform of banking regulation to ensure they will never again have to foot huge bills for financial folly. So far, there is only one credible proposal."

 

 

AP Photo

November 16, 2009

"The Great Wallop"

Op-Ed, New York Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Moritz Schularick

"A few years ago we came up with the term "Chimerica" to describe the combination of the Chinese and American economies, which together had become the key driver of the global economy," says Niall Ferguson member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "Correcting the economic imbalance between the United States and China - the dissolution of Chimerica - is now indispensable if equilibrium is to be restored to the world economy."

 

April 30, 2012

"African Game Change"

Op-Ed, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"In the years that lie before us, a great struggle will play out south of the Sahara: a struggle between man and Malthus. According to the Rev. Thomas Malthus’s famous principle—sometimes called the Malthusian trap—population grows geometrically, but the supply of food increases arithmetically. Viewed in those terms, many African countries today seem doomed to misery and vice," writes Belfer Center International Council member Niall Ferguson, "So is Africa heading over a demographic waterfall? Maybe not....Two things are changing the continent’s prospects. The first is the surging demand for the natural resources that are so abundant in Africa....The other game changer is mobile telephony....cellphones are giving poor Africans access to basic financial services for the first time."

 

 

AP Photo

May 17, 2010

"The End of the Euro"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Just when it seemed safe to start using the word "recovery," a Greek crisis is threatening the world economy, and the very existence of the world's second-biggest currency."

 

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