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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

 

By Publication Type

 

AP Photo

May 17, 2010

"The End of the Euro"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Just when it seemed safe to start using the word "recovery," a Greek crisis is threatening the world economy, and the very existence of the world's second-biggest currency."

 

 

AP Photo

January/February 2010

"What 'Chimerica' Hath Wrought"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, American Interest

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"For a time, [Chimerica] was a symbiotic relationship that seemed like a marriage made in heaven. Put simply, one half did the saving, the other half the spending. Comparing net national savings as a proportion of Gross National Income, American savings declined from above 5 percent in the mid 1990s to virtually zero by 2005, while Chinese savings surged from below 30 percent to nearly 45 percent. This divergence in saving patterns allowed a tremendous explosion of debt in the United States, for one effect of the Asian "savings glut" was to make it much cheaper for households to borrow money than would otherwise have been the case."

 

 

AP Photo

December 7, 2009

"An Empire at Risk"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Military experts talk as if the president's decision about whether to send an additional 40,000 troops to Afghanistan is a make-or-break moment. In reality, his indecision about the deficit could matter much more for the country's long-term national security. Call the United States what you like-superpower, hegemon, or empire-but its ability to manage its finances is closely tied to its ability to remain the predominant global military power."

 

 

AP Photo

November 16, 2009

"The Year the World Really Changed"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"...1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier."

 

 

iStock Photo

December 2008

"Wall Street Lays Another Egg"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Vanity Fair

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Not so long ago, the dollar stood for a sum of gold, and bankers knew the people they lent to. The author charts the emergence of an abstract, even absurd world-call it Planet Finance-where mathematical models ignored both history and human nature, and value had no meaning."

 

May 11, 2015

"The Rise and Fall of Krugmania in the UK"

Op-Ed, The Huffington Post

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

It is already conventional to name the former party leaders Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage as the biggest losers of the British general election, closely followed by all the opinion pollsters and the narcissistic comedian Russell Brand. But this is to understate the abject defeat suffered by some Keynesian economists, and in particular the Nobel prize winning former Princeton professor Paul Krugman.

 

 

May 3, 2015

"I'll take the high road to London"

Op-Ed, The Sunday Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

‘The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees,” declared Dr Johnson, “is the high road that leads him to England!”

It is very doubtful that either Alex Salmond or the Scottish National party’s new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, would agree. Nevertheless, if Salmond wakes up on May 8 as the newly elected MP for the Aberdeenshire constituency of Gordon, the prospect that will greet him will indeed be the high road to England.

 

 

Wikimedia Commons

Friday, February 13, 2015

"The meaning of the Minsk agreement"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The world loves a peace agreement. The beauty of any deal like the Ukraine ceasefire agreed in the early hours of Thursday morning is that it can be presented in two equally interesting ways. Either it is “Camp David”, a transcendent moment of reconciliation between sworn enemies. Or it is “Munich”, a lapse back into the appeasement of dictators.

 

 

(Sipa via AP Images)

November 26, 2014

"K of the Castle"

Op-Ed, TLS (Times Literary Supplement)

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Niall Ferguson writes about Henry Kissinger's most recent book, World Order.

Henry Kissinger does not dwell in detail on Obama’s record of strategic incoherence in this magisterial meditation on the international system. Yet it is not too difficult to read between the lines that this book has been inspired at least partly by dismay at the amateurism of the past six years and dread of the risks inherent in the strategy-less approach.

 

 

October 28, 2014

"The Return of Volatility Is Mainly About Monetary Policy"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Four weeks ago I was in London at a conference organized by one of the biggest U.S. banks. The program included a session with the dread title, “2014, The Death of Volatility?” As it followed a rash of similar presentations and articles this year—“The Strange Death of Volatility,” “The Day Volatility Died” and the like—I knew from experience that a spike in volatility was imminent. And sure enough, since the end of last month, financial markets around the world have gone from gliding up an escalator to riding a bucking bronco.

 

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