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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

 

 

By Publication Type

 

AP Photo

May 17, 2010

"The End of the Euro"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Just when it seemed safe to start using the word "recovery," a Greek crisis is threatening the world economy, and the very existence of the world's second-biggest currency."

 

 

AP Photo

January/February 2010

"What 'Chimerica' Hath Wrought"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, American Interest

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"For a time, [Chimerica] was a symbiotic relationship that seemed like a marriage made in heaven. Put simply, one half did the saving, the other half the spending. Comparing net national savings as a proportion of Gross National Income, American savings declined from above 5 percent in the mid 1990s to virtually zero by 2005, while Chinese savings surged from below 30 percent to nearly 45 percent. This divergence in saving patterns allowed a tremendous explosion of debt in the United States, for one effect of the Asian "savings glut" was to make it much cheaper for households to borrow money than would otherwise have been the case."

 

 

AP Photo

December 7, 2009

"An Empire at Risk"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Military experts talk as if the president's decision about whether to send an additional 40,000 troops to Afghanistan is a make-or-break moment. In reality, his indecision about the deficit could matter much more for the country's long-term national security. Call the United States what you like-superpower, hegemon, or empire-but its ability to manage its finances is closely tied to its ability to remain the predominant global military power."

 

 

AP Photo

November 16, 2009

"The Year the World Really Changed"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Newsweek

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"...1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier."

 

 

iStock Photo

December 2008

"Wall Street Lays Another Egg"

Magazine or Newspaper Article, Vanity Fair

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Not so long ago, the dollar stood for a sum of gold, and bankers knew the people they lent to. The author charts the emergence of an abstract, even absurd world-call it Planet Finance-where mathematical models ignored both history and human nature, and value had no meaning."

 

April 18, 2014

"A Populism Spurned By The Downturn's Discontents"

Op-Ed, Financial Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Political backlash usually follows economic crisis. Everyone knows how the Great Depression fuelled support for extremists on both the left and right. Less well known is the way the original Great Depression – the one that began in 1873 and involved a quarter-century of deflation – led to a wave of populism on both sides of the Atlantic. Could this history be repeating itself?

 

 

BBC-2

February 23, 2014

Why Obama Must Stop History Repeating Itself

Op-Ed, The Sunday Times

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

It is hard indeed to romanticise the First World War. Those khaki uniforms have none of the glamour of the redcoats worn by British soldiersback in 1775 or 1815. Good luck to anyone who wants to re-enact the effects of a machinegun on advancing infantry or the impact of a howitzershell on a trench.

 

 

AP Images

February 21, 2014

"Niall Ferguson: America's Global Retreat"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Never mind the Fed's taper, it's the U.S. geopolitical taper that is stirring world anxiety. From Ukraine to Syria to the Pacific, a hands-off foreign policy invites more trouble.

 

 

(AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)

December 26, 2013

"Mexico's Economic Reform Breakout"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Pierpaolo Barbieri, Former Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program, 2011–2013 and Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

For much of the last decade, Mexico and Brazil were a study in contrasts. "Brazil Takes Off" was a typical magazine cover, depicting Rio's huge statue of Christ literally blasting off. The equivalent story for Mexico was "The War Next Door: Why Mexico's Drug Violence is America's Problem Too."

In the past two years, however, the roles have been reversed. Riots in São Paulo and the downfall of billionaire Eike Batista have badly dented Brazil's glamorous image. Meanwhile, a succession of bold moves by Mexico's charismatic new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, have finally awakened foreign observers to the fact that Mexico is Latin America's new "country of the future."

 

 

November 6, 2013

U.S. and China Both Need Economic Rehab

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By Niall Ferguson, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Moritz Schularick

Nearly seven years have passed since we coined the word Chimerica in these pages to characterize the symbiotic relationship between China and America. Few today would dispute that op-ed's original point: that the unbalanced economic relationship between China and America posed a threat to global financial stability. Without the flow of Chinese savings into U.S. dollars, as a result of Beijing's large-scale currency intervention and reserve accumulation, American interest rates would surely have been higher and the housing bubble would have inflated less.

 

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