William H. Tobey

February 5, 2013

"Squandering opportunity on Mischief Reef"

Op-Ed, Foreign Policy

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Incredibly, territorial disputes between China and its neighbors over uninhabited islands threaten to become a flashpoint threatening peace in East Asia. While tensions have since cooled a bit, the Economist recently warned that "China and Japan are sliding towards war." Last August, large, angry, and violent protests broke out in dozens of Chinese cities against a decision by the Japanese government to buy several of the disputed islands (called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China) from a Japanese private citizen. Again this month, China sortied aircraft and ships near the islands, and Japan scrambled fighters in response.

May 2011

Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options

Report

By Fred McGoldrick, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Fred McGoldrick authored a report, entitled "Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options" that provides an informed analysis and set of recommendations on how to strengthen restraints on the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies in a manner that would be acceptable to all Nuclear Suppliers Group members, and would be credible to the major exporting states and industry.

May 2011

Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options

Report

By Fred McGoldrick, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Fred McGoldrick authored a report, entitled "Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options" that provides an informed analysis and set of recommendations on how to strengthen restraints on the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies in a manner that would be acceptable to all Nuclear Suppliers Group members, and would be credible to the major exporting states and industry.

AP Images

November 23, 2010

"Peninsula of Fear"

Op-Ed, City Journal

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"The Yongbyon revelations have prompted intense debate within policy circles about North Korea's capabilities and intentions-for instance, about whether North Korea was able to build the new enrichment facility without foreign help and about what it intends to do with this plant and more broadly, with its nuclear program. Some hope that Pyongyang wants to use the facility as a bargaining chip and that it may scale back its program to get sanctions lifted and secure normal relations with the U.S. and other nations. But more officials take the pessimistic view that Pyongyang unveiled the new facility to persuade Washington and its allies to accept North Korea as a member of the nuclear-weapons club."

AP Images

February 4, 2010

"Iran unfolds its fist to slap us in the face"

Op-Ed, Boston Globe

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"Neither Russia nor China sees a nuclear armed Iran as a threat. All other things being equal, they might prefer Tehran's ayatollahs not to control nuclear weapons, but all other things are not equal. Beijing wants access to oil and gas. Moscow wants to rebuild a geostrategic position in the Middle East, sell conventional arms and nuclear reactors to Iran, and foster a regional power capable of standing up to the United States.

If key administration assumptions about Iran have proven false, what now?"

Summer 2011

"After Fukushima: How Should Nuclear Regulators Respond?"

Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter

By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

With the nuclear crisis at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi reactor continuing more than a month after the initial damage and radiation leaks, several Center experts responded to the question of what actions should be taken now by nuclear regulators around the world.

May 2011

Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options

Report

By Fred McGoldrick, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Fred McGoldrick authored a report, entitled "Limiting Transfers of Enrichment and Reprocessing Technology: Issues, Constraints, Options" that provides an informed analysis and set of recommendations on how to strengthen restraints on the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies in a manner that would be acceptable to all Nuclear Suppliers Group members, and would be credible to the major exporting states and industry.

March 18, 2013

"North Korea’s Nuclear Test of China"

Op-Ed

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The most recent North Korean nuclear detonation is as much a test of China’s foreign policy as it was of the DPRK’s ability to induce atomic fission. It exposes outdated assumptions and policies, and the pernicious effects of China’s mushrooming foreign trade and investment in North Korea. Beijing’s relations with Pyongyang are guided by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which still thinks of the 1950 conflict as “the war to resist America and aid Korea.” The policy that China and North Korea should be as close as “lips and teeth” is a relic of the Cold War. The notion that North Korea could or should somehow act as a “buffer state” in an era of air power and massive Chinese trade with the South is equally archaic. Click the link below for the full text of this article:

AP Images

November 24, 2010

"Why We're Always Fooled by North Korea"

Op-Ed, Wall Street Journal

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"This nuclear revelation is not an intelligence failure. Over the past decade, intelligence analysts have consistently predicted North Korea's path to nuclear weapons and noted the increasing evidence of its missile and nuclear proliferation. The failure has been that of policy makers and pundits who denigrated the analysis, ignored it, or clung to the fallacy that North Korea would abide by a denuclearization deal."

AP Images

November 23, 2010

"Peninsula of Fear"

Op-Ed, City Journal

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"The Yongbyon revelations have prompted intense debate within policy circles about North Korea's capabilities and intentions-for instance, about whether North Korea was able to build the new enrichment facility without foreign help and about what it intends to do with this plant and more broadly, with its nuclear program. Some hope that Pyongyang wants to use the facility as a bargaining chip and that it may scale back its program to get sanctions lifted and secure normal relations with the U.S. and other nations. But more officials take the pessimistic view that Pyongyang unveiled the new facility to persuade Washington and its allies to accept North Korea as a member of the nuclear-weapons club."