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William H. Tobey

William H. Tobey

Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Contact:
Telephone: 617-496-0518
Fax: 617-495-8963
Email: william_tobey@hks.harvard.edu

 

 

By Date

 

2014 (continued)

Wikipedia Commons

February 24, 2014

"The NPT: The Center Can Hold"

Op-Ed, International Relations and Security Network

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been remarkably successful in restraining the nuclear ambitions of most states, writes William Tobey. If it is to succeed in the future, he says, the ‘best’ must uphold their convictions while the ‘worst’ must recognize that proliferation is ultimately a dead end.

 

 

December 2013

"Planning for Success at the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit"

Policy Brief

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In the dead of night on July 28, 2012, three senior citizens, including an 82-year-old Catholic nun, Sister Megan Rice, broke into the Y-12 National Security Complex near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, site of the US Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF). This self-proclaimed “Fort Knox of uranium” is America’s central repository for weapons-grade uranium.

....The security failings revealed by the nun and her fellow protesters are legion. The protesters were on the site for over an hour and 20 minutes, trekking about seven-tenths of a mile as the crow flies, but far longer as they traversed a steep ridge. They pierced fences equipped with sophisticated sensors. Yet the Y-12 Protective Force failed to spot them until they enjoyed unimpeded access to the exterior of the HEUMF forabout 20 minutes. Had these individuals been well-armed, well-equipped terrorists, instead of Bible-toting peace protesters, the incident would have been far more dire.

 

 

AP

February 5, 2014

"Failure in Syria Will Doom Iran Nuclear Deal"

Op-Ed, Foreign Policy

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The world's nuclear weapons proliferators watch each other. They look for warnings and opportunities in how their peers are treated. Iran halted its nuclear weapons development after Saddam was toppled for several years. Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi also got cold feet.

Later, Tehran watched the tepid international responses to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test and to a secret Syrian plutonium production reactor (which Israel destroyed as it neared completion in 2007), and apparently decided that the rewards outweighed the risks associated with constructing a covert uranium enrichment facility near Qom.

What are the Mullahs watching now? Syria, where the Obama administration's policy is failing.

 

 

International Panel on Fissile Materials

January 13, 2014

"The Nuclear Terrorism Threat"

Presentation

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Pavel S. Zolotarev

In these slides, William H. Tobey and Pavel Zolotarev provide an updated summary of the threat of nuclear terrorism, based in part on the new U.S.-Russian report, Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism. This was presented at the Meeting of the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit ‘Sherpas’, hosted by the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pattaya, Thailand, on January 13, 2014.

 

2013

November 13, 2013

"Testing a Nuclear Deal with Tehran"

Op-Ed, Foreign Policy

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Before ink had been put to paper -- let alone dried -- on an interim nuclear bargain with Iran Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced it as "the deal of the century" for Tehran , noting that Iran would not have to dismantle even one centrifuge. If a deal is culminated, others will no doubt defend it, arguing that Iran's enrichment program is a fait accompli; that we can hope only to contain it, not to end it, or even to roll it back.

 

 

October 13, 2013

"Stopping Nuclear Terrorism"

Op-Ed, Moscow Times, issue 5233

By Pavel S. Zolotarev and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Earlier this year, an 83-year-old Catholic nun, Sister Megan Rice, was convicted of breaking into the Y-12 National Security Complex near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where the U.S. stores weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium. Sister Rice and two senior citizen companions cut through three fences before vandalizing the outside of the storage site. Fortunately, they were peace activists and not terrorists bent on causing mayhem, but this appalling lapse proves that no nation can be complacent about securing its nuclear materials.

 

 

Shari Nijman

Oct 7, 2013

"The Nuclear Terrorism Threat – And Next Steps to Reduce the Danger"

Presentation

By Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom and William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Matthew Bunn and Will Tobey spoke with Piet de Klerk, the Dutch Sherpa organizing the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit, on October 7 at a United Nations event sponsored by the Dutch mission to the UN. In these slides, Bunn and Tobey provide an updated summary of the threat of nuclear terrorism and recommendations for next steps to reduce the threat, based in part on the new U.S.-Russian report, Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism.

 

 

October 2, 2013

"Steps to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism"

Paper

By Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Kuznetsov Valentin, Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom, Yuri Morozov, Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Viktor I. Yesin and Pavel S. Zolotarev

The 2011 “U.S. - Russia Joint Threat Assessment” offered both specific conclusions about the nature of the threat and general observations about how it might be addressed. This report builds on that foundation and analyzes the existing framework for action, cites gaps and deficiencies, and makes specific recommendations for improvement.

 

 

September 30, 2013

"Transcending Mutual Deterrence in the U.S.-Russian Relationship"

Paper

By Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Kuznetsov Valentin, Yuri Morozov, Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Viktor I. Yesin and Pavel S. Zolotarev

Even as this paper was being written and edited, U.S.-Russian relations have warmed and chilled. Today, as we are about to go to press, marks a particularly chilly period in recent history, with the cancellation of a planned Moscow Summit in September 2013. To some, this cold spell might signal an inapt moment to consider issues related to transcending mutual deterrence. Such a view would overlook the aims of the paper, which attempts to assess the central and enduring interests of the United States and Russia, the extent to which they coincide or conflict, and whether or not in light of these interests mutual deterrence should remain a fundamental feature of the relationship.

 

 

May 14, 2013

"Cuts to Nuclear Security Will Make Us Less Safe"

Op-Ed, Politico

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

At the 2010 Washington Nuclear Security Summit, President Barack Obama hosted the largest gathering of foreign leaders on U.S. soil since the Truman administration. He sought to bolster international efforts to protect nuclear material and to prevent terrorists from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The president cites these initiatives among his highest national security priorities. Why then would his latest budget slash the most important programs to secure and to dispose of highly enriched uranium and plutonium — precisely the work he rallied foreign leaders to support?

 

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