Mailing address
Littauer
April 6, 2009
"Scaling Dynamics in Energy Technologies: Historical Evidence & Implications"
Presentation
Historical patterns of growth across a range of energy technologies are used to explore "scaling". Scaling is used to describe a particular form of growth that is (i) both rapid and substantive, taking into account the overall size of the energy system, and (ii) occurs at multiple levels from the technical unit and/or plant to the industry as a whole (e.g., from a wind turbine or wind farm to total installed wind capacity or manufacturing output). Scaling dynamics are assessed in historical time series data on vehicles, jet aircraft, refineries, and power plants (nuclear, coal, gas, wind). In those cases for which S-shaped growth is clearly evidenced, logistic function parameters are used to compare scaling across different technologies.
