Graham Allison

July 31, 1985

Of Hawks, Doves - and, Now, Owls

Op-Ed, New York Times

By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Albert Carnesale, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Forty years ago, one bomb devastated Hiroshima. Today, there are more than 50,000 nuclear weapons, and a nuclear war could destroy civilization. Avoiding war has become a necessity. How? Hawks have had their say; doves, theirs. Now, listen to the owls.

May 6, 1981

The U.S.- Japan "Pie"

Op-Ed, New York Times

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki's predecessor, Masayoshi Ohira, coined the phrase "productive partnership" to define the relationship between Japan and the United States. Mr. Suzuki's current visit to this country, and the agreement last week to restrict Japan's automobile exports to the United States, provide an appropriate opportunity to consider the questions: productive of what? for whom? Autos aside, the answer for Japan seems clear. The American-Japanese relationship provides Japan with basic security guarantees essential to its self-defense, a framework of international order within which Japan can continue to develop as a major independent power, and vital economic markets. For the United States, the question appears tougher. Still, assuming competent management of our side of the partnershipe, Americans enjoy at least three major categories of benefits.

December 21, 1980

An Intelligence Agenda

Op-Ed, New York Times

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

The central test of a national intelligence service is how well its analyses and estimates inform policy-makers of probable developments abroad. More than any other, it is this test that the United States intelligence community is failing today.

Consider the case of Iran. Through l978 and 1979, American intelligence profoundly misassessed the revolutionary forces opposing the Shah. For example, in August l978, a Central Intelligence Agency estimate concluded: 'Iran is not in a revolutionary or even prerevolutionary situation.' The intelligence community's failure to illuminate these events exasperated President Carter, provoking him to send a memorandum to the C.I.A. declaring: 'I am not satisfied with the quality of political intelligence.'

Beneath the surface of this case, one finds characteristic failings of the current community in the three key elements of performance: collection, analysis, and service to policy-makers.

Should the West Keep the Soviet Economy From Toppling?The West Won't Be Wasting Its Money, Say the Reform-for-Aid Plan's Authors

Op-Ed, Washington Post

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

THE DEEPENING economic crisis in the Soviet Union has brought Soviet and Western leaders to a historic fork in the road: Reform the Soviet system or watch it collapse into chaos.

April 30, 2001

"U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports: Mini-Case and Paradigm"

Paper

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Drawing on the Caspian Studies Program's ongoing research, my colleague Emily Van Buskirk and I prepared a case on U.S. policy on Caspian energy development and exports for a Kennedy School course I teach with Ambassador Robert Blackwill. Using the case, our sixty students examined central questions including: What is the most effective way to promote the development of Caspian energy resources? What is the proper role of government in large-scale capital projects? Where does the Caspian Basin rank in the hierarchy of U.S. national interests?

AP Photo

April 2010

Nuclear Terrorism Fact Sheet

Policy Memo

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

This nuclear terrorism fact sheet answers the key questions surrounding the issue, including how much highly enriched uranium it would take to make a nuclear device (25 kg). It details recent instances of stolen nuclear materials and break-ins at nuclear facilities.

April 7, 2010

Nuclear Terrorism Threat Assessment

Presentation

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

This presentation answers five key questions about the severity of the threat of nuclear terrorism.

June 6, 2003

Graham Allison Awarded Medal From Kazakhstan

Press Release

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

On Harvard’s Commencement Day, following the Kennedy School’s diploma ceremony, Ambassador Kanat Saudabayev of Kazakhstan presented Dr. Graham Allison, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Chair of the Caspian Studies Program, with a special award from the President of Kazakhstan. The medal, called the Order of Dostik, or friendship, was bestowed on Dr. Allison by President Nursultan Nazarbayev for his work in the early 1990s to remove nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan and for his current support for students from Kazakhstan at the Kennedy School.

March 24, 2003

Are We Prepared for the Unthinkable? Graham Allison on Smallpox

Press Release

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Imagine you work in the governor’s office and are awakened with the news that three people in Washington, DC have just been diagnosed with smallpox. No one yet knows how they contracted the disease; but one of the afflicted had, on his way home from a business trip, stopped for the night in your state, where he visited clients, rode on public transportation, ate in a restaurant, and had a drink at a popular night spot. You learn that only 250 health workers in your state have been vaccinated against smallpox and are trained to inoculate others, while another 5,000 medical workers need to be vaccinated in order to implement your state’s response plan. The federal government can deliver the additional vaccine you need to get the job done, along with enough doses to vaccinate every resident in your state, but it will take a few days. Meanwhile, news of the smallpox infections is expected to leak to the press within hours. Decisions need to be made—now. What would you advise the governor to do? And, what would you advise your family to do?

January 20, 2003

Graham Allison to Speak on "Preventing Nuclear Terrorism" at US-Russia Security Program on January 20, 2003

Press Release

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Graham Allison to Speak on "Preventing Nuclear Terrorism" at US-Russia Security Program on January 20, 2003