Annie Tracy Samuel
Research Fellow, International Security Program
Contact:
Telephone: 617-496-2569
Fax: 617-496-0606
Email: annie_tracy_samuel@hks.harvard.edu
Website: http://scholar.harvard.edu/annietracysamuel
AP Photo
August 4, 2012
"Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War — Part 2"
Op-Ed, Fair Observer
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Like the 1980 Iraqi invasion, an attack will be viewed in Iran as part of a pattern of Western subversion and aggression that links together British and Russian economic exploitation, occupation during World War II, the coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq in 1953, and years of support for the Shah's repressive regime. For those in Iran who question the standard narrative of concerted and constant Western aggression, an attack on Iranian territory will dispel any doubt and engender the next generations of Iranians who subscribe to that view."
AP Photo
July 28, 2012
"Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War — Part 1"
Op-Ed, Fair Observer
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"While the regime may increase its strength in the wake of an attack, it may also be able to capitalize on an attack to eliminate its internal enemies. That is precisely what happened following the 1980 Iraqi invasion. Ayatollah Khomeini and his allies used the war to strengthen their control over the state along the war-making state-making nexus, following the pattern of revolutionary elites in other countries. Their main rival for power within the Islamic Republic was the secular leaning constituency led by President Abolhassan Banisadr, who had tried to gain the support of the regular armed forces and to steer the war effort in his role as commander in chief. To minimize Banisadr's power, Khomeini sent his own representatives to oversee the armed forces, which eroded their support for the president, and built up a competing powerbase in the IRGC."
AP Photo
June 27, 2012
"The Syrian Uprising: The View from Tehran"
Journal Article, Tel Aviv Notes, issue 12, volume 6
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Though the inconsistency of Iranian support for popular protest everywhere but Syria (and Iran itself) is apparent, it is hardly remarkable. Throughout the last 18 months of tumultuous events in the region, governments have struggled to calibrate their interests and align them with the values and beliefs used to justify their actions."
May 2012
"Perceptions and Narratives of Security: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Iran-Iraq War"
Discussion Paper
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This paper explores the importance of the Iran-Iraq War for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) by analyzing how the Guards have used the war to present their positions on Iran's national security.
AP Photo
March 28, 2012
"Why Negotiating with Iran is Israel's Best Strategy"
Op-Ed, GlobalPost
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"...[S]anctions and threats are strengthening the power of Iranian hardliners and the Revolutionary Guards, the forces that present the gravest danger to Israel. A policy that is centered on pressure will increase the likelihood that Iran will decide it needs a nuclear weapon and that it cannot reduce its enmity toward Israel and the United States. Such a policy will likely make Israel less secure."
AP Photo
February 21, 2012
"Ask the Experts: What Would Iran Do With a Bomb?"
Op-Ed, Politics, Power, and Preventive Action, A Council on Foreign Relations Blog
By Micah Zenko, Former Research Assistant to Graham Allison, 2003–2006; Former Research Associate, Project on Managing The Atom, 2006–2008, Kyle Beardsley, Sarah Kreps, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007–2008, Matthew Kroenig, Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2007–2008, Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program and Todd Sechser, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2004–2006
"Iran's leaders, like those in other states, want to remain in power. They want the regime in which they have invested and which serves their interests to endure. Foreign policy, in addition to safeguarding Iran's borders and national integrity, is a means for safeguarding the regime. Possession of a nuclear weapon will likely make Iran more impervious to attack and may make Iran bolder in its support for armed groups. However, possessing a nuclear weapon will is not likely to alter Iran's paramount foreign policy goals of national and regime security."
December 2011
"Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War"
Policy Brief
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This policy brief seeks to contribute to and inform the debate concerning a possible attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The presumed aim of such an attack would be to weaken the Islamic Republic, particularly by hindering its ability to build a nuclear weapon. However, the history of the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980 calls into question the contention that an attack will weaken the regime in Tehran. This policy brief examines Iran's reactions to the Iraqi invasion in order to shed light on Iran's possible reactions to a U.S. or Israeli attack.
AP Photo
Fall 2011
"Guest Editor's Forward"
Journal Article, Sharqiyya
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"The past year has been one of tremendous change in the Middle East and North Africa. The transformations that have come in the wake of momentous upheavals—now commonly known as the Arab Spring—have a wide and varying significance. For many people in the region, the past year has been one of daring, fearless action in pursuit of far-reaching political change. Their demands induced fear among the long-time, autocratic rulers, which has resulted either in the abdication of long-clung-to power or in brutal resistance and violence against masses of unarmed, pro-democracy protesters. World leaders have found themselves scrambling to protect various vital interests while struggling not to end up on the wrong side of history."
AP Photo
October 14, 2011
"Going Rogue in Iran?"
Op-Ed, CNN.com
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"If we accept the charges made in the complaint and take Arbabsiar's words at face-value, we know that two Quds Force officers unsuccessfully and sloppily arranged, through intermediaries they thought to be associates of a Mexican drug cartel, to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, D.C. There is no evidence in the complaint to support the claim that other elements of the Iranian government knew about, approved of, or ordered this plot."
