Michael Beckley
Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Winter 2012/13
"Correspondence: Debating China's Rise and U.S. Decline"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Associate, International Security Program and Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson responds to Michael Beckley's winter 2011/12 International Security article, "China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure."
AP Photo
March 2012
"China and Pakistan: Fair-Weather Friends"
Journal Article, Yale Journal of International Affairs, issue 1, volume VII
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Two assumptions dominate current debates on US foreign policy toward Pakistan. First, Pakistan shares a robust "all-weather" friendship with China centered on core national interests. Second, Pakistan's ability to turn to China in times of need insulates it from US pressure and renders hardline US policies counterproductive. Both of these assumptions are mistaken.
Spring 2012
Excerpt from “China’s Century” Why America’s Edge Will Endure”
Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
“Change is inevitable, but it is often incremental and non-linear. In the coming decades, China may surge out of its unimpressive condition and close the gap with the United States," writes Belfer Center ISP fellow Michael Beckley, "[however] the trends suggest that the United States’ economic, technological, and military lead over China will be an enduring feature of international relations, not a passing moment in time, but a deeply embedded condition that will persist well into this century.”
AP Photo
February 29, 2012
"How Big a Competitive Threat Is China, Really?"
Op-Ed, Harvard Business Review
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
"Is China becoming a serious economic competitor to the United States? Is China, in effect, a giant Japan?...For many reasons, China is unlikely to repeat Japan's success. Most important, China is developing in a far more challenging international environment than Japan faced in the second half of the 20th century. As a result, its economy will remain more compatible than competitive with America's for the foreseeable future."
AP Photo
January 2012
"To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia"
Policy Brief
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
"China narrowed the gap in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and will likely overtake the United States as the world's largest economy sometime between 2015 and 2040. What matters for national power, however, is not gross wealth, but net wealth—the wealth left over after people are clothed and fed. China's 1.3 billion people produce a large volume of output, but they also consume most of it immediately, leaving little left over for national purposes."
Imaginechina via AP Images
Winter 2011/12
"China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 36
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
The current hype that China is overtaking the United States is wrong. China is rising, but it is not catching up. Globalization and hegemony, often considered burdens, are actually helping the United States maintain its edge by allowing it to reap financial advantages and manipulate the international system to its benefit. The United States should therefore continue to prop up the global economy and pursue a robust diplomatic and military presence abroad.
AP Photo
December 14, 2011
"Don't Worry, America: China is Rising But Not Catching Up"
Op-Ed, Christian Science Monitor
By Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
"But China is not an emerging superpower in the mold of the Soviet Union, nor is it a great power like early-twentieth century Germany. It is a large developing country and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Americans, therefore, should not fear China. But neither should they shy away from competing with this rising power for influence in Asia."
