Mailing address
One Brattle Square 510
79 John F. Kennedy Street
Mailbox 134
Cambridge, MA, 02138
Terence Roehrig
Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Contact:
Telephone: 617-384-8064
Fax: 617-496-0606
Email: terence_roehrig@hks.harvard.edu
Experience
Terence Roehrig's research focuses on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for Japan and South Korea and extended deterrence. He is Professor of National Security Affairs and the Director of the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College. He is co-author with Uk Heo of a forthcoming book, South Korea's Rise in the World: Power, Economic Development, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge University Press), and is a past president of the Association of Korean Political Studies.
AP Photo
May 2013
"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Future Strategy and Doctrine"
Policy Brief
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
A nuclear North Korea makes it crucial that all countries in Northeast Asia work hard at maintaining a stable security environment that avoids the dangers of a crisis while encouraging North Korea to adopt a nuclear strategy that retains its "no first use" pledge, a strong command and control system, and a stable nuclear weapons posture. Given its relationship with North Korea, China is best positioned to encourage DPRK leaders in these directions.
April 18, 2013
"Dealing with North Korea—What Comes Next?"
Op-Ed, Diplomat
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"A military strike against North Korean nuclear facilities would be very dangerous, possibly setting off a chain of events that could wreck the peninsula. South Korea has made absolutely clear that it will retaliate if North Korea initiates some type of provocation but a direct military strike to eliminate its nuclear program is unlikely. Finally, despite some indications of unhappiness with Pyongyang's actions, there are limits to what China is willing to do to exert pressure on North Korea."
February 20, 2013
"Not So Fast: Pyongyang's Nuclear Weapons Ambitions"
Op-Ed, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
By Dana Struckman and Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"While concern for North Korea's push to become a relevant nuclear power is warranted, it is equally important to recognize the very serious technical issues that have plagued Pyongyang's efforts to date. Building a nuclear weapon and its delivery system, and then keeping them operational for the long term is hard—even harder for those states attempting to do it under the umbrella of international sanctions and monitoring."
December 2012
"The Roles and Influence of the North Korean Military"
Book Chapter
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
The armed forces have always played a vital role for states as their guarantor of national security. In addition, the military has often been a political actor with varying degrees of power and influence over budgets, foreign and defense policy, or a full-blown military dictatorship. Some are also significant players in the state economy. This chapter provides an assessment of the North Korean military's role and influence in all three areas — security, politics, and economics — as the country undergoes its second leadership transition to its young leader, Kim Jong-un.
October 2012
"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program: Motivations, Strategy, and Doctrine"
Book Chapter
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Despite continuing efforts to convince North Korea to relinquish its nuclear capability, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will ever do so. Pyongyang might be willing to curtail or freeze certain parts of the program but the likelihood of North Korean denuclearization is quickly fading. With Pyongyang likely to retain some level of nuclear-weapons capability, analysis turns to an assessment of how these weapons might be integrated into its defense posture. Using deterrence theory as the analytical framework, this chapter examines possible avenues for North Korea's nuclear weapons strategy and doctrine.
October 2012
"South Korea's Counterpiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden"
Report Chapter
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
In March 2009, the South Korean National Assembly approved the first foreign deployment of South Korea's naval forces to join the U.S.-led Combined Task Force (CTF-151). The purpose of CTF-151 is to conduct antipiracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off Somalia's east coast by the Horn of Africa. South Korea joined the navies of twenty four other countries that participate in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) through one of three combined task forces, CTF-150, CTF-151, and CTF-152, to help ensure maritime security in this region. The CMF is an international effort to conduct maritime security operations in the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
October 2012
Global Korea: South Korea's Contributions to International Security
Report
By Scott Bruce, John Hemmings, Balbina Y. Hwang, Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom and Scott Snyder
Given the seriousness of the ongoing standoff on the Korean peninsula, South Korea's emergence as an active contributor to international security addressing challenges far from the Korean peninsula is a striking new development, marking South Korea's emergence as a producer rather than a consumer of global security resources. This volume outlines South Korea's progress and accomplishments toward enhancing its role and reputation as a contributor to international security.
2012
"Republic of Korea Navy and China's Rise: Balancing Competing Priorities"
Report Chapter
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
South Korea faces a complex security environment that increasingly has important maritime components, a situation that produces many competing priorities from coastal defense against North Korea to regional concerns, and finally to global protection of sea lanes and contributing to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. Consequently, concerns for China are only one piece of the ROK Navy's strategy and force planning decisions.
