Monica Duffy Toft
Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
September 6, 2006
"Conclusion: Seven Lessons Learned from the Fog of Peace"
Book Chapter
By Talbot C. Imlay and Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"...the fog of peace can never be entirely pierced. Flexibility and constant cultivation of the ability to question received wisdom and to reconsider assumptions are the best security against catastrophic failure in a future war, regardless of whether that war resembles a more traditional interstate war or the current war on terror."
September 2006
The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning under Uncertainty
Book
By Talbot C. Imlay and Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
This volume sets out to examine and analyse how governments and military organizations planned for an uncertain and potentially threatening future during four different peacetime periods spanning from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the aftermath of the Second World War.
September 6, 2006
"Strategic and Military Planning under the Fog of Peace"
Book Chapter
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs and Talbot C. Imlay
"...in their scope and diversity, the cases provide an excellent overview of the challenges confronting military planners over the last two hundred years."
AP Photo
May 20, 2011
"God and Terror"
Op-Ed, Public Discourse
By Timothy Samuel Shah, Daniel Philpott and Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"...[R]eligion has made a political comeback, abetted by globalization, democratization, and technological development. Those religious actors who are most closely integrated with state authority and who hold a political theology that calls for state sponsorship, the subordination of minorities, and the use of violence are most likely to be violent. Those who have remained independent of state authority and carry a political theology that prescribes democracy, peace, and reconciliation are most likely to be peaceful and democratic."
AP Photo
April 6, 2011
"Does the U.S. Have a Responsibility to Protect the Libyan People?"
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"...[T]he question that should have stopped the intervention in the first place: Are there reasonable prospects for success? Or might the use of force produce more harm than good?"
AP Photo
April 2010
"Rethinking Rebellions: A New Approach to Ending Civil War"
Policy Brief
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"...[V]ictory means that the government or rebel military is left intact. Rebel victories are more stable than government ones because the rebels are not only in a position to harm (or threaten harm) their populations but also to benefit them. In winning, a rebel military organization remains capable of containing moves against its government. But because it is a rebel organization, it must to appeal to a portion of its domestic audience for approval as well as also to an international community not predisposed to the overthrow of national governments. This is also consistent with the move toward the greatest level of democratization following rebel victories. Rebels need to buttress the legitimacy of their win: allowing greater liberalization of the political system is an effective means to doing so."
AP Photo
Spring 2010
"Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 4, volume 34
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
Since 1990, negotiated settlements have been the preferred method for ending civil wars. A new analysis of all civil war endings since 1940, however, shows that military victory can be more effective than negotiated settlements in establishing lasting peace. The case of Uganda illustrates how peace eludes negotiated settlements and how rebels might be more likely to allow democratization. If stability, democracy, and development are valued objectives, then policymakers should examine victories as well as negotiated settlements to understand the conditions most likely to achieve durable outcomes.
AP Photo
March 1, 2010
"Religion Matters in International Relations"
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"We missed the significance of the Iranian revolution, we ignored the power of the Pope, and we missed September 11. Why? Again one may find partial guidance in the Chicago Council Report....The report promotes the education of practitioners in the State Department, the Department of Defense and the interesting notion of drawing on the wealth of veterans to help develop that curriculum, but it says nothing on the education of school-age children or in the university. Stephen Prothero's recent book, Religious Literacy, demonstrated that most Americans remain shockingly unaware of the basic principles of different religious traditions. Remarkably, a good portion of the questions is about Christianity, the supposed faith of a majority of this country's citizens."
October 2009
Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars
Book
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term.
AP Photo
June 30, 2009
"A Risky Prospect for Iraq"
Op-Ed, Foreign Policy
By Monica Duffy Toft, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy; Former Board Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Former Director, Initiative on Religion and International Affairs
"As American troops pull back from Iraq's urban areas, a central question is whether Iraq's forces will be able to secure the peace. If history is any guide, Iraq's security forces face a challenging task. Ending civil wars and keeping them ended is not easy. Iraq faces three critical risk factors."
