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January/February 2011
"The Dangers of A Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment"
Journal Article, Foreign Affairs
By Eric S. Edelman, Senior Associate, International Security Program, Andrew F. Krepinevich and Evan Braden Montgomery
Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb would upend the Middle East. It is unclear how a nuclear-armed Iran would weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of brinkmanship, meaning that it could be difficult to deter Tehran from attacking the United States' interests or partners in the region.
Summer 2007
"Correspondence: Uncertainty and Reassurance in International Politics"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 32
By Shiping Tang and Evan Braden Montgomery
Shiping Tang responds to Evan Braden Montgomery's fall 2006 International Security article, "Breaking Out of the Security Dilemma: Realism, Reassurance, and the Problem of Uncertainty."
Fall 2006
"Breaking out of the Security Dilemma: Realism, Reassurance, and the Problem of Uncertainty"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 31
With fear, mistrust, and uncertainty fueling the internationalsecurity dilemma, benign states find themselves in a quandary: they must reveal their motives to adversaries without endangering their own security. Only one method will produce the desired results: offense-defense differentiation and—contrary to what most defensive realists argue—a neutral offense-defense balance. Three examples demonstrate that a state can successfully reassure an adversary: Britain's 1907 decrease in its naval estimates, Nikita Krushchev's troop reductions, and Mikhail Gorbachev's disarmament and arms control initiatives.
