Spring 2007
"Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 4, volume 31
Japan's experience in 1945 led it to declare that it will never become a nuclear weapons state. But changes in the regional and international security environments (i.e., a nuclear North Korea and an erosion of multilateral regimes) indicate at least some potential benefit in rethinking this policy. In fact, neither public opinion nor the actions of policymakers support the development of an independent nuclear deterrent. Japan's leaders remain more interested both in strengthening their country's existing "insurance policies" against the threat of a nuclear attack (in particular, the U.S. nuclear deterrent), and in developing their civilian nuclear program to guarantee energy security. At least for the time being, the costs of Japan becoming a nuclear state outweigh the benefits.
