PUBLICATIONS
2012
"Climate Change: The Clock Keeps Ticking"
CAIJING Annual Edition: Forecasts and Strategies
By William R. Moomaw and Kelly Sims Gallagher, Senior Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group
"With its extensive manufacturing capacity, China could continue to forge alliances with private companies in the United States, Europe and Japan to transform not only its own economy, but help to build the carbon protective, low carbon energy systems for the world."
July 2012
"Post-Durban Climate Policy Architecture Based on Linkage of Cap-and-Trade Systems"
By Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government; Member of the Board; Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements and Matthew Ranson
The outcome of the December 2011 United Nations climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa, provides an important new opportunity to move toward an international climate policy architecture that is capable of delivering broad international participation and significant global CO2 emissions reductions at reasonable cost. This paper addresses an important component of potential climate policy architecture for the post-Durban era: links among independent tradable permit systems for greenhouse gases.
July 2012
"Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior"
By Erich Muehlegger, Shanjun Li and Joshua Linn
Gasoline taxes can be employed to correct externalities associated with automobile use in order to reduce dependency on foreign oil and raise government revenue. This paper examines how gasoline taxes affect consumer behavior as distinct from tax-exclusive gasoline prices. It suggests that traditional analysis could significantly underestimate policy impacts of tax changes and discusses the implications of these findings.
May 2012
What are the Welfare Costs of Shoreline Loss?
This paper uses housing market data to estimate the welfare costs of shoreline loss along coastal beaches in Florida. The work examines homeowners' willingness to pay for an extra foot of sand and then addresses how changes in beach width generally have little impact on housing prices. The results imply that the welfare costs of sea level rise may be low up to a threshold, and then increase sharply.
July 2012
North American Oil and Gas Reserves: Prospects and Policy
By Jonathan Bailey and Henry Lee, Director, Environment and Natural Resources Program
Expanding estimates of North America’s supply of accessible shale gas, and more recently, shale oil, have been trumpeted in many circles as the most significant energy resource development since the oil boom in Texas in the late 1920s. How large are these resources? What challenges will need to be overcome if their potential is to be realized? How will they impact U.S. energy policy?
To address these questions, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and two of its programs ― the Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Geopolitics of Energy Project ― convened a group of experts from business, government, and academia on May 1, 2012, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The following report summarizes the major issues discussed at this workshop. Since the discussions were off-the-record, no comments are attributed to any individual. Rather, this report attempts to summarize the arguments on all sides of the issues.
June 2012
"Oil Development in China: Current Status and Future Trends"
Energy Policy, volume 45
By Linwei Ma, Feng Fu, Former Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group (ETIP), 2011–2012; Former Research Fellow, ETIP, 2010–2011, Zheng Li and Pei Liu
This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's oil development through system analysis. The authors design three scenarios of China's oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil conservation, automotive energy development, and energy security. From their analysis, they draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as controlling total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, enhancing oil conservation in all sectors with the emphasis on road transportation, and increasing investment in oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.
April 3, 2012
"Land and Water Impacts of Oil Sands Production in Alberta"
Environmental Science and Technology, issue 7, volume 46
By Sarah Jordaan, Former Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group, April–August 2012; Former Research Fellow, ETIP, February 2011–March 2012
Expansion of oil sands development results not only in the release of greenhouse gas emissions, but also impacts land and water resources. Though less discussed internationally due to to their inherently local nature, land and water impacts can be severe. Research in key areas is needed to manage oil sands operations effectively; including improved monitoring of ground and surface water quality.
Summer 2012
Intensive Workshops Examine Energy Technologies, Future of Oil and Gas Reserves
Belfer Center Newsletter
By Traci Farrell, Former Communications Assistant
A group of American and European academics working on understanding the future prospects of energy technologies and the role of governments shaping these prospects gathered at Harvard Kennedy School in April. Hosted by Laura Diaz Anadon, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Policy.... the group discussed the need to incorporate uncertainty around technical change, the challenges of utilizing expert elicitations to inform policy decisions using models, and future collaborative work combining different expert elicitations and different energy-economic models.
Summer 2012
Roy Family Supports Student Engagement in Environmental Efforts
Belfer Center Newsletter
By Traci Farrell, Former Communications Assistant
The Roy Family Summer Environmental Internship supports returning Kennedy School students interested in specific internships for public, private, or non-profit organizations abroad or in the United States. These paid scholarships allow students to participate in innovative summer projects that would ordinarily not offer a salary. There are four award recipients for 2012, and each received a $6,500 stipend to work with organizations that are not able to hire an intern.
Summer 2012
Film Series Promotes Environmental Activism
Belfer Center Newsletter
By Traci Farrell, Former Communications Assistant
Organized by Environment and Natural Resources Assistant Director Amanda Sardonis and senior fellow Cristine Russell, ENRP kicked off its 2012 Environmental Film Series with screenings of three widely heralded documentaries: “The Last Mountain,” directed by Bill Haney focuses on citizens fighting to prevent large coal companies from practicing mountain top removal in their town.... “A Fierce Green Fire: The Battle for a Living Planet,” directed by Mark Kitchell, highlights the major environmental movements from the last 50 years, while "The Grand Energy Transition: Natural Gas - The Bridge To Our Sustainable Future," directed by Belfer Center International Council Member Robert A. Hefner III argues that natural gas is the future of U.S. energy.

