Are You Certain?
Leaders, Misplaced Certainty, and War in
U.S. Foreign Policy
An International Security Program (ISP) Brown Bag Seminar with ISP Research Fellow Robert Schub, on Thursday, April 23, 2015 @ 12:15 PM in the Belfer Center Library, Littauer-369.
For more information, click here>
April 16, 2015
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
By Ariane Tabatabai, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"The Middle East's only operating nuclear power plant, Bushehr, is located in Iran's south, close to the Persian Gulf. The rest of the eight reactors Tehran has planned will also be built in the area. This means that any safety breach would not only affect Iran's population, but also have cross-border implications."
April 16, 2015
The Huffington Post
By Charles G. Cogan, Associate, International Security Program
"Abraham Lincoln became the first public figure to synthesize the idealism and the race hatred at the founding of the American Republic by his Emancipation Proclamation of 1863, ending slavery in the South. For this he became the first American president to be assassinated."
April 12, 2015
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"Iran has more latent power potential than any other state in its region, and it might prefer a regional environment in which nuclear weapons did not constrain its ability to throw its weight around. As long as Tehran doesn't have to worry about U.S.-backed regime change, its strategic position might be better off without the bomb. If top leaders in Iran see things this way, then they won't weaponize no matter what the final agreement does or does not permit them to do."
April 14, 2015
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Netanyahu's actions are unprecedented in U.S. history. A foreign leader — from a country considered to be a close U.S. ally — has placed himself, frontally, between a U.S. president and a major presidential foreign policy initiative. Not diplomatic reservations, along with discrete behind the scenes efforts to improve the agreement. Not a polite request to amend the agreement, but total public opposition, designed to torpedo the agreement, along with unrealistic demands...."
April 3, 2015
The Boston Globe
By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor
"...[T]he United States has more time to manage its relations with a rising power than Britain did a century ago, and China has incentives for restraint. Too much fear can be self-fulfilling. Whether the United States and China will manage their relationship well is another question. Human error and miscalculation are always possible. But with the right choices, war is not inevitable, and the impressive rise of China is a long process that is still far from signifying the end of the American century."
March 27, 2015
The National Interest
By Jeremy Schwarz, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program
"Lee Kuan Yew fundamentally understood that people are everything. Long before the era of corporate strategists, new age gurus, or smooth-talking politicos, Lee saw that the development of the people of Singapore—its core natural resource—was the key to long-term economic growth, social development, and national prosperity."
March 26, 2015
By Juliette Kayyem, Lecturer in Public Policy
"...[W]e have seen that there is a real risk of pilots bringing down planes. We have built no back-up plans into the secure cockpit programs. It might be necessary to devise secure and classified entry access passwords or electronic keys that are available only to both pilots or a pilot and the lead flight attendant. No system of security should rely on a single point of entry and while the post-9/11 security planning made sense then, it may have outlived the threat now."