PUBLICATIONS
AP Photo
October 16, 2009
"Thinking Outside the Box Could Save Royal Mail"
The Scotsman
By Azeem Ibrahim, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Since 1969, it has been a public limited company owned by the government. But as mail volumes have fallen, the debate about whether it should be public or private has forced it to live in uncertainty about its future. Some see it as an essential public service which the government should run. But last year's Hooper Report says it is 40 per cent less efficient than its European counterparts...."
AP Photo
October 13, 2009
"U.S., Russia Must Lead on Arms Control"
Politico
By General Brent Scowcroft, Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, R. Nicholas Burns, Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics and Strobe Talbott
"The Nobel Peace Prize Committee cited Obama's dedication to arms control and nonproliferation when announcing last Friday his selection as this year's laureate. If he creates a positive, mutually reinforcing dynamic in the way he presents and sequences the two treaties [NPT and CTBT], it will give momentum and coherence to follow-on negotiations and the agreements that they produce."
AP Photo
October 13, 2009
"Obama's Nuclear Agenda"
Daily News Egypt
By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor
"So long as the world remains a dangerous place with several nuclear weapons states, Obama must reassure its allies about the credibility of American guarantees of extended deterrence. Otherwise, reductions that create anxieties in other countries could lead them to develop their own weapons and thus increase the number of nuclear weapons states."
AP Photo
October 12, 2009
"Why PR Won't Represent the Country"
politics.co.uk
By Azeem Ibrahim, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Coalitions are held together by leaders 'buying off' the smaller parties to prevent them splitting and triggering new elections. That inevitably result in leaders kowtowing to factional whims and offering concessions to the preoccupations of small parties, however arcane. That would be a very real risk here, where small party support has grown from 3 per cent to 14 per cent in the last thirteen years. In many countries this results in money for the pet projects of small parties or individuals. This is an awful idea at a time when there is such an urgent need to restrict spending."
AP Photo
October 12, 2009
"AIPAC, J Street, or JDate?"
The Jerusalem Post
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Those Jewish Americans, who share a deep concern for Israel's trials and travails, have the right, even the duty, to express their criticism within the Jewish community, the public at large, pretty much anywhere — except before the administration and Congress. There, we have to present one voice — not "pro" every Israeli policy, but united, unswerving support for Israel and a strong US-Israel relationship."
AP Photo
October 11, 2009
"Deciphering the Attack on Pakistan's Army Headquarters"
Foreign Policy
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"This was neither the first attack on an army structure in the country nor the most deadly — but it is unprecedented given the extent of the breach of the GHQ security, the confusion that it created in its initial stage (raising concerns about the safety of army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani), and its timing vis-à-vis the planned launch of a ground military operation in South Waziristan. It could be a transformational event for the army — cementing its resolve against local militants, bridging internal divisions and forcing a review of its intelligence estimates. However, jumping to conclusions without a thorough investigation and reacting rashly based on preconceived notions would be highly counterproductive. Additionally, though Pakistan's nuclear installations are not in the immediate vicinity of GHQ, the nature of the attack raises questions about how security agencies would react if a future attack targets any of the nuclear weapons facilities."
AP Photo
October 2009
"Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace"
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom and Sarah Kreps, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively few scholarly articles have attempted to identify the factors that lead a state to attack another state's nuclear facilities. This paper conducts the first large-n analysis on when states use force as a way to control proliferation.
This paper challenges existing arguments that states are deterred from attacking nuclear programs by the prospect of a military retaliation from the proliferating state or concerns about international condemnation. Instead, it finds that states are more likely to attack nuclear programs when they believe that the proliferating state might use nuclear weapons or engage in other offensive behavior. States are willing to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significant threat to their security.
AP Photo
October 9, 2009
"Whatever He Decides, Afghanistan Will Hurt Obama"
The Providence Journal
By Aaron Rapport, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"...Obama is unlikely to decrease his commitment to Afghanistan, even if assessments of the situation there grow increasingly dire. Instead he will probably opt to push the day of reckoning down the road. This is not just cynical politics on Obama's part. Powerful, success-oriented individuals tend to believe they can find solutions to even the most intractable problems if they are given enough time. As a result, they underestimate the long-term risks and costs of their actions."
AP Photo
October 7, 2009
"Business Sense and Maturity Could Save Us All a Pretty Penny"
The Scotsman
By Azeem Ibrahim, Research Fellow, International Security Program
All too often, we are governed by politicians who either do not have the experience to match their responsibility or the abilities to match their power....Over the past 20 years, MPs have got younger and younger. Of course, it is important for MPs to be in touch with the electorate, but this needs balance. Less experience of life and work outside politics means less experience of the society they represent. That has not led to better governance."
AP Photo
October 5, 2009
"Keeping a Lid on Homegrown Terror"
Boston Globe
By Lorenzo Vidino, Research Fellow, Initiative on Religion in International Affairs/International Security Program
"...[A]ggressive counterterrorism tactics and improved intelligence sharing have allowed US authorities to dismantle cells and keep the country safe. At the same time, though, the United States seems to be lacking a long-term strategy to confront the threat. Authorities have been unable to conceive a policy that would preemptively tackle the issue of radicalization, preventing young American Muslims from embracing extremist ideas in the first place."
