CASPIAN STUDIES
December 5, 2003
Rumsfeld Rightly Attending to the Caucasus
Christian Science Monitor
By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007
November 29, 2003
A Conflict That Can Be Resolved in Time: Nagorno-Karabakh
International Herald Tribune
November 2003
"Iran at the Nuclear Threshold"
Arms Control Today
By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007
For the past decade, Iran's nuclear program has been a proliferation concern to the United States. Given that Iran is awash with oil and gas reserves, Tehran's decision to allocate a major portion of its infrastructure investment to develop nuclear power plants has been puzzling. Until the spring of this year, the United States was practically alone in pressing for limits on Iranian access to nuclear weapons-related technology and materials. Western European states and Russia have differed with the United States in their assessment of the extent of Iran's nuclear program and its intentions to develop nuclear weapons. Europe, Russia, and Japan have also been reluctant to upset bilateral trade and political relations with Iran as a lever to prevent proliferation.
October 14, 2003
"Azerbaijan Goes to the Polls"
Policy Watch, POLICYWATCH is a publication of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy., issue 792
By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007
"
As with most of the other states of the Caucasus and Central Asia, the democratization of Azerbaijan has not progressed as Washington had hoped it would when the Soviet Union first began to dissolve. During the past six months, President Aliyev has been incapacitated by failing health. The problems that emerged as a result of his illness demonstrated that Azerbaijan has not yet succeeded in building government institutions that are sufficiently independent of the leadership. Hence, if the elections are not conducted in a fair and free manner, foreign disappointment with the government may increase."
October 2003
"Federalization of Foreign Relations: Discussing Alternatives for the Georgian-Abkhaz Conflict"
By Bruno Coppieters, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, Caspian Studies Program and Intrastate Conflict Program, 2003-2004, Tamara Kovziridze and Uwe Leonardy
"...Leaders of the Georgian, Abkhaz, and Ossetian national movements even consider Soviet federalism to be one of the main causes of the exacerbation of ethnic conflicts in Georgia and are not eager to reinstitute a federal structure. From the Georgian perspective, the Moscow leadership used federalism as an instrument to divide and rule and weaken the Georgian movement for national independence. From the Abkhaz and South Ossetian perspectives, Soviet federalism has put the various national communities in a hierarchical relation toward each other. This kind of ethnic stratification runs contrary to the principle of national self-determination, which pre-supposes the equality of all national communities. The exacerbation of ethnic conflicts in Georgia during the first half of the 1990s and the failure of existing federal arrangements to address these problems led to war in South Ossetia and then in Abkhazia. These wars resulted in the creation of two de facto states in these regions...."
September 22, 2003
Leaning on Iran Not to Make Nukes: A Test for the World
International Herald Tribune
By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007
July 2003
"Iran's Role in the South Caucasus and Caspian Region: Diverging Views of the U.S. and Europe"
By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1999-2000; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project, 2004-2007
This paper is part of a larger project that examined how different stances on regional issues can impact bilateral U.S.-European relations.
Since the Soviet breakup and the subsequent independence of the states of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia), Europe and the United States have conducted very different policies toward the new states in the greater Caspian region. Moreover, Europe and the United States view Iran's policies and the desired role that Tehran should play in the region in diverging ways.
