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Preventive Defense Project’s Co-Director Dr. William Perry Gives Speech on Iran, North Korea, and the Challenges of Proliferation at the Center for National Policy

Press Release

May 24, 2006

Author: Robin Olsen

Washington, DC -- PDP Co-Director William J. Perry delivered a speech to the Center for National Policy on May 24, 2006, in Washington, DC at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill. Dr. Perry’s speech focused on Iran, North Korea, and the challenges of proliferation. Dr. Perry discussed the options available to the United States in order to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism stemming from the nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea.

Dr. Perry began by stating that he believes nuclear terrorism is currently the greatest danger that the United States faces and that we are not doing a good job of preventing it. Dr. Perry thinks the estimate of a 50/50 probability of a nuclear bomb going off in an American city within the decade is too optimistic.

Perry went on to say that many of our preventive programs are properly focused on keeping nuclear weapons and materials out of the hands of terrorists since they cannot make nuclear bombs themselves. He cited efforts during his time as Secretary of Defense to successfully dismantle about 10,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and the former Soviet Union and strengthen security for the remainder. However, Dr. Perry stated that the nuclear reduction program, while effective in the former Soviet Union, does not prevent the spread of dangerous material from emerging nuclear countries.

Dr. Perry sees the greatest threats of unresolved nuclear proliferation from North Korea – where nuclear material could be sold - and Iran – where nuclear material or technology could be leaked to a terror group. Further, if North Korea and Iran become nuclear powers, a nuclear arms race could be triggered with their neighbors.

Dr. Perry believes that the failure of the prevention efforts in North Korea and Iran leads to three generic alternatives. First the president could change the diplomatic efforts to engage in direct talks and establish more effective coercive means. Second, the president could use military strikes to remove nuclear facilities. Third, the United States could accept the new nuclear status of Iran and North Korea. Dr. Perry believes the least bad alternative is direct talks and a course of pressures. In order to convince allies to go along with the level of coercion necessary, the United States will have to take regime change off the table.

In the North Korean situation, Dr. Perry stated that there are no good alternatives left. He stated Ambassador Chris Hill’s engagement as part of the six-party talks created positive, substantive progress, but subsequent backtracking has prevented more progress. Second, Perry does not favor military strikes because the plutonium is no longer at Pyongyang and because of the threat of a second Korean war. Perry also does not believe that the United States can fully prevent North Korea from transferring nuclear materials to another entity, making the third option of accepting a nuclear North Korea problematic.

In the Iranian situation, Dr. Perry also asserted that there are no good alternatives remaining. First, he believes that the talks with Iran must be strengthened to include active United States participation. While acknowledging the barriers, Perry also discussed the need for coercion through an Article 7 sanction that puts political and economic pressure on Iran because of the depth of the Iranian desire for nuclear weapons. Second, Dr. Perry stated that he believes the implications of a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would be horrific due to the need to make repeated strikes and likelihood of a long war with global implications. Last, he noted that the United States could develop nuclear defense if it had to accept a nuclear Iran, but that the real danger, which is not solved by the Proliferation Security Initiative, is in the proliferation of Iranian nuclear technology or material to terrorists.

For more information about this publication please contact the PDP Associate Director at 617-495-1412.

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http://www.cnponline.org/index.php?tg=articles&idx=More&topics=49&article=178

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