Preventive Defense Project Co-hosts DPRK Energy Experts Working Group Meeting

Press Release

June 27, 2006

Author: Robin Olsen

San Francisco, CA – The Preventive Defense Project, in collaboration with the Center for the Pacific Rim at the University of San Francisco and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and Korea Energy Economics Institute, hosted a Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) Energy Experts Working Group Meeting in San Francisco, CA, on June 26-27, 2006.

The Working Group Meeting was held to provide up-to-date information on the DPRK energy sector and to perform analysis on different potential DPRK energy future scenarios that would be useful to the participants at the Six-Party talks and in bilateral negotiations with the DPRK. In particular, the information provided during the Meeting was expected to assist analysis that would be helpful to Six-Party participants in terms of approaches to DPRK energy sector redevelopment. The Meeting also provided for a discussion of “next steps” for energy sector redevelopment in DPRK. Held over two days, the Working Group Meeting consisted of six sessions: “DPRK Energy Supply and Resources;” “DPRK Energy Demand and Economy;” “Discussion on DPRK Energy Supply and Demand Situation: Challenges and Impacts of Recent Trends in the DPRK Economy;” “Integrated Estimates of DPRK Energy Supply and Demand;” “International Cooperation for Energy Sector Redevelopment in the DPRK;” and “Panel and Group Discussion, International Cooperation for Energy Sector Redevelopment in the DPRK and ‘Next Steps.’” In addition, Dr. William Perry gave a lunch talk on the first day.

The Working Group Meeting began with Opening Remarks by the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation, Dr. Ryu Ji-Chul of the Korea Energy Economics Institute, and Dr. Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute.

In the first session, entitled, “DPRK Energy Supply and Resources,” participants heard from speakers about energy cooperation in Northeast Asia, DPRK’s energy imports from and exports to China, mineral resources in DPRK, and forest and other biomass production. In addition, a participant discussed an analysis of the current and future supply and demand of the North Korean power system.

After a lunch talk from Dr. William Perry, participants conducted session 2 - “DPRK Energy Demand and Economy.” This session included presentations on recent changes in the North Korean economy; recent trends in the energy sector, particularly regional electricity and residential and service fuel use; the impact of Chinese and cross-border trade and investment on the industrial sector; the impact on energy use because of trends in the North Korean agricultural sector; the implications of the DPRK Program of Economic Reform; and energy efficiency activities in the DPRK.

Following a break, session three, entitled, “Discussion of DPRK Energy Supply and Demand Situation: Challenges and Impacts of Recent Trends in the DPRK Economy,” began. This session involved a panel discussion with experts on the topic, and later in the session, a general discussion ensued among experts from sessions one and two and other participants.

The second day of the Working Group Meeting began with the fourth session – “Integrated Estimates of DPRK Energy Supply and Demand.” Experts discussed topics such as updated North Korean energy balance information; a supply and demand energy balance sheet; estimated DPRK military energy use; and updated DPRK future energy paths. The session also included a group discussion of the energy balance estimates and next steps for refining estimates.

Following lunch, session five – “International Cooperation for Energy Sector Redevelopment in the DPRK” – began. Peter Hayes from the Nautilus Institute shared his presentation, “Potential Areas/Modes for Energy Sector Collaboration with the DPRK.” Then, information about the prospects of North and South Korea energy cooperation as well as US-Korean economic relations trends were discussed.

After a break, the final session, session six, took place. It was entitled, “Panel and Group Discussion, International Cooperation for Energy Sector Redevelopment in the DPRK and ‘Next Steps.’” This part of the Working Group Meeting consisted of an expert panel discussion and a more general discussion among participants. The discussion hoped to uncover areas of potential collaboration and ways of working with the DPRK. In addition, the participants were to discuss the “first steps” for rehabilitation and coordination.

The Working Group Meeting had 35 participants, including Peter Hayes, David Von Hippel, Yi Kiho, Jungmin Kang, Bruce Scott, and Miranda Weingartner from the Nautilus Institute; Chung Woo-jin, Ryu Ji-Chul, Kim Kyung Sool, and Joo Jin-Hong from the Korea Energy Economics Institute; William Perry, Deborah Gordon, Myrna Soper, John Lewis, Michael May, Siegried Hecker, Robert Carlin, and Dean Wilkening from Stanford University; Barbara Bundy and Patrick Hatcher from the USF Center for the Pacific Rim.

For more information about the Working Group Meeting, please go to http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKEnergyMeeting/Agenda.html.

For more information about this publication please contact the PDP Associate Director at 617-495-1412.

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