Boycott politics: The absence of Jamaat Islami and Tehrik-e Insaf

News

December 26, 2007

Author: Haroon Ullah, Former Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Project on India and the Subcontinent

A month ago there was talk of a potential boycott of the upcoming elections by Pakistan's political parties. In the recent meetings of the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) in Lahore, the PML-N decided to contest the elections, while two members of the APDM, the Jamaat Islami and Tehrik-e Insaf decided to maintain their stance not to contest the polls. What will be the effect of these two parties not participating? Although both parties are electorally small, their impact could be much greater. Walking on any university campus, one will find significant support for both of these groups. Added to the fact that almost 50% of the Pakistani population is under the age of 25 makes this segment a potentially influential swing vote in the upcoming election.

While Imran Khan's party Tehrik-e Insaf has only one seat in the assembly and is organizationally weak, he seems to be gaining support among the student populations in Pakistan. On the campus of Punjab University, one of the largest universities in Pakistan, many students highlight Imran Khan as their model politician. Hasan, a 3 rd year student is passionate about Imran Khan's platform, while Suleiman asserts that he has the characteristics to lead the country out of its current crisis. Recent large protests and rallies for him reflect that support. While his previous experience in high profile athletics and in setting up Shukhat Khanam (a premier cancer research hospital) has made him a household name, his recent profile has heightened due to his harsh stance on the government, house arrest and impending hunger strike. The fact that he is not participating puts into question a potential number of votes among students and younger people. While many of the current candidates have been in power (Bhutto, Sharif, Musharraf), Imran Khan is seen as the 'Barack Obama' candidate in Pakistan -- a candidate that offers a vision and hope for the future, that hasn't been tainted or compromised their positions through experience. Many are watching to see if Imran Khan endorses one of the major parties, PPP or PML-N or decides to continue pushing for the reinstatement of the deposed judges. Regardless, it seems that he will continue to play an important role in the political landscape beyond the elections.

The Jamaat Islami (JI) has a long history in Pakistan, and some commentators label the party as having the strongest internal party structure of any group in Pakistan. While the party does not have the numerical strength of the larger parties in the assembly, the Jamaat Islami has been part of the influential MMA coalition of religious parties. In addition, the JI has the strongest organizational presence on university campuses of any party in Pakistan. Liaqat Baloch, the provincial Chief of Jamaat Islami recently noted that the JI's decision to boycott the elections sprung from the fact that the deposed judiciary has not been reinstated. Baloch commented that the elections will be fraudulent polls and that the JI needed to take a principled stance on boycotting the elections.

The fact that JI will not be inside the parliament for the next five years will prove interesting. For example, in Islamabad's influential NA-48 District, Mian Aslam of Jamaat Islami had been the reigning MP. With the Jamaat Islami's decision to boycott, the race for the NA-48 seat is now wide open. Similarly, in Karachi in the well developed and resource rich NA-250 district (which includes the posh Clifton area), Jamaat Islami MP Abdusatttar Afghani had originally won. Other influential seats in Lahore and other areas are now also wide open with JI's decision to boycott the election. Close attention will be paid to which party is able to sway the JI sympathetic votes. In addition, it will interesting to see whether Qazi Hussian Ahmed, the head of JI will continue to be the President of the MMA coalition since other members of the MMA (such as Jamaat Ulema, JUI) have decided to continue to contest elections.

For more information about this publication please contact the Project on India and the Subcontinent Events Coordinator.

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