"Can the United States Save the Nonproliferation Regime?"

Ashton Carter and Robert Joseph Disagree

Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter

Spring 2008

Author: Robin Olsen

The future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its relevance to the security of the United States was the subject of a November debate in the JFK Jr. Forum between Ashton B. Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project and member of the Center's Board of Directors, and former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert G. Joseph.

Carter opined that there was a 75 percent chance that the NPT would be "healthy" in five to ten years, despite critics' assertions that the system was eroding. Joseph said there are "major challenges to the viability of the nonproliferation regime," mainly due to the actions of Iran and North Korea.

Addressing the contention that the United States undermines the NPT by not disarming, Joseph argued that the country has a positive record of drawing-down its nuclear weapons stores and that it should continue to do so as long as that action is in alignment with American defense and deterrence requirements. He said he believes the United States will continue to make use of nuclear weapons as part of its defense strategy, but that they will play a less prominent role than in the past.

Carter and Joseph differed about the prospects of the United States revisiting arms control negotiations with Russia and the merits of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Carter argued that arms control treaties are useful in combating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and advocated readdressing the issue with Russia to attempt to reduce weapons stockpiles. Joseph was less inclined to believe those talks would be helpful.

Eric Rosenbach, executive director for research at the Belfer Center, moderated the discussion. Questioners were current and former Kennedy School students Jason J. Blackstock and Manjana Milkoreit.

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