New Nuclear Nations: Consequences for U.S. Policy
Authors: Albert Carnesale, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Robert D. Blackwill, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: International Security
Several nations are challenging decades of effort by the international community to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Robert D. Blackwill and Albert Carnesale, along with eight other experts, analyze the national security consequences for the United States if new nuclear-weapon states emerge to threaten American interests. The contributors examine the nations most likely to cross the nuclear threshold and how these countries would acquire, maintain, and protect their new nuclear weapons capabilities. Individual chapters address: how nuclear weapons in Saddam Hussein’s hands could have altered the outcome of the Gulf War; the ways that American diplomacy and international arms control could meet the dangers posed by new nuclear nations; U.S. military options for dealing with the nuclear weapons and delivery systems of new proliferators; the role and limitations of intelligence systems of new proliferators; the role and limitations of intelligence in penetrating hostile nuclear programs; and the circumstances—if and—under which the United States should provide technical assistance to increase the safety of emerging nuclear arsenals.
- Conclusions and Recommendations
- Introduction: Understanding the Problem
- Assistance to Newly Proliferating Nations
- Arms Control for New Nuclear Nations
- Diplomatic Measures
- Implications for U.S. Military Strategy
- Offensive Military Options
- Defenses Against New Nuclear Threats
- The Role of Intelligence
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Document Length: 272 pp.