Hot Off the Presses

Newsletter Article, Belfer Center Newsletter, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Summer 2010

Editor: Susan M. Lynch, Program Assistant, International Security Program; Web Manager, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program

Jihad in Saudi Arabia: Violence and Pan-Islamism since 1979                          

By Thomas Hegghammer; Cambridge Middle East Studies

Cambridge University Press (April 2010)

Saudi Arabia, homeland of Osama bin Laden and many 9/11 hijackers, is widely considered to be the heartland of radical Islamism. Yet Islamism within Saudi Arabia itself remains poorly understood. Why has Saudi Arabia produced so many militants? Has the Saudi government supported violent groups? How strong is al-Qaida's foothold in the kingdom and does it threaten the regime? Why did bin Laden not launch a campaign there until 2003? This book presents the first ever history of Saudi jihadism based on extensive fieldwork in the kingdom and primary sources in Arabic. It offers a powerful explanation for the rise of Islamist militancy in Saudi Arabia and sheds crucial new light on the history of the global jihadist movement.

"Mr Hegghammer's analysis of the rise and fall of Saudi jihadism reveals some fascinating details....Yet what stands out most are his persuasive insights. The spread of jihadist ideas in Saudi Arabia, it seems, owed as much to temporary local factors as to outside influences or, for that matter, to Islamic scripture."

-The Economist

History and Neorealism                                                                             

Edited by Ernest R. May, Richard Rosecrance, and Zara Steiner; Cambridge University

Press (Forthcoming 2010)

Neorealists argue that all states aim to acquire power and that state cooperation can therefore only be temporary, based on a common opposition to a third country. This view condemns the world to endless conflict for the indefinite future. Based upon careful attention to actual historical outcomes, this book contends that while some countries and leaders have demonstrated excessive power drives, others have essentially underplayed their power and sought less position and influence than their comparative strength might have justified. Featuring case studies from across the globe, History and Neorealism examines how states have actually acted.

Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts: The Politics of Numbers in Global Crime and Conflict                                                                                                      

Edited by Peter Andreas and Kelly M. Greenhill; Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Cornell University Press (Forthcoming June 2010)

"Between 600,000 and 800,000 women are trafficked across borders every year." "Money laundering represents as much as 10 percent of global GDP." "Internet child porn is a $20 billion-a-year industry." These are big, attention-grabbing numbers, frequently used in policy debates and media reporting. Peter Andreas and Kelly M. Greenhill see only one problem: these numbers are probably false. Their continued use and abuse reflect a much larger and troubling pattern: policymakers and the media naively or deliberately accept highly politicized and questionable statistical claims about activities that are extremely difficult to measure. As a result, we often become trapped by these mythical numbers, with counterproductive consequences.

In Sex, Drugs, and Body Counts, political scientists, anthropologists, sociologists, and policy analysts critically examine the murky origins of some of these statistics and trace their remarkable proliferation. They also assess the standard metrics used to evaluate policy effectiveness in combating problems such as terrorist financing, sex trafficking, and the drug trade.

"Puncturing many myths-sometimes uncomfortably so-chapters both systematic and vivid show the dangers of basing public policy on numbers that no one should count on, including exaggerating numbers of victims or, the opposite, deliberately downplaying gross state violations. The authors show how and why unreliable numbers persist, what it takes-politically and methodologically-to develop better estimates, and why it matters."

-Lynn Eden, Stanford University

Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century                                                                                                        

Edited by Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller

An International Security Reader                                                                         

The MIT Press (January 2010)

Going Nuclear offers conceptual, historical, and analytical perspectives on current problems in controlling nuclear proliferation. It includes essays that examine why countries seek nuclear weapons as well as studies of the nuclear programs of India, Pakistan, and South Africa. The final section of the book offers recommendations for responding to the major contemporary proliferation challenges: keeping nuclear weapons and materials out of the hands of terrorists, ensuring that countries that renounce nuclear weapons never change their minds, and cracking down on networks that illicitly spread nuclear technologies.

"The articles in Going Nuclear address the key questions in the ongoing debate over the causes and consequences of nuclear proliferation, with special attention to the critical case of South Asia."

-Charles L. Glaser, Professor of Political

Science and International Affairs, Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science, George Washington University

Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons                                                                                                        

By Matthew Kroenig; Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Cornell University Press (April 2010)

In a vitally important book for anyone interested in nuclear proliferation, defense strategy, or international security, Matthew Kroenig points out that nearly every country with a nuclear weapons arsenal received substantial help at some point from a more advanced nuclear state. Why do some countries help others to develop nuclear weapons? Many analysts assume that nuclear transfers are driven by economic considerations.

Kroenig challenges this conventional wisdom. He finds that state decisions to provide sensitive nuclear assistance are the result of a coherent, strategic logic. The spread of nuclear weapons threatens powerful states more than it threatens weak states, and these differential effects of nuclear proliferation encourage countries to provide sensitive nuclear assistance under certain strategic conditions.

"Tackling an urgent but too often neglected real-world puzzle-why states help other states acquire nuclear weapons-Matthew Kroenig develops one of the most original and illuminating arguments about proliferation and deterrence in more than a decade."

-Nina Tannenwald, Brown University

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

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