Russia in Review

Media Feature

July 6, 2012

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: The US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of June 29-July 6, 2012 



Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of June 29-July 6, 2012

I.                    U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

·       The U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction program in May supported security for five nuclear-weapon train shipments and disposal of 11.11 metric tons of chemical nerve agent. (GSN, 07.05.12).

·       Sen. Dick Lugar will travel to Russia and Ukraine next month to check up on the progress of the 1991 law he coauthored with then-Sen. Sam Nunn to provide U.S. expertise in helping the former Soviet Union dismantle its arsenal of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. (The Hill, 07.03.12).

·       The five Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) nuclear-weapon states met in Washington on June 27-29, 2012, to review progress towards fulfilling the commitments made at the 2010 NPT Review Conference, and to continue discussions on issues related to all three pillars of the NPT. (State Department, 07.29.12).

Iran nuclear issues:

·       Iran has filed a $4-bln law suit against Russia at an international arbitration court over a breach of contract in the supply of S-300 air defense systems and poor implementation of post-sale services on various types of Russian-made military equipment supplied to Tehran under earlier contracts. (RIA Novosti, 07.06.12).

·       "Although there remains much to be done before agreements could be reached, this is a hopeful signal that the conversation has been transferring into the professional particular plane," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said of the just-concluded Istanbul meeting between experts on the Iranian nuclear program. (Xinhua, 07.05.12).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

·       The Russian government has given approval for the United States and its NATO allies to use a Russian air base in the Volga city of Ulyanovsk as a hub for transits to and from Afghanistan. (RIA Novosti, 07.29.12).

·       The importance of the northern routes will become even more acute when the traffic is reversed. By the end of September, 23,000 U.S. troops are scheduled to withdraw from Afghanistan, along with a commensurate amount of materiel.  In April military officials from Kyrgyzstan asked Marine Gen. James Mattis, the head of the U.S. Central Command, whether the Pentagon would be willing to donate drones after its departure from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has sought to capitalize on its status as the only country with a major rail link to Afghanistan by seeking a 50 percent surcharge on shipments leaving the war zone. (WP, 07.04.12).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

·       No significant developments.

Missile defense:

·       The chief of Russia’s General Staff, General of the Army Nikolai Makarov, will pay a visit to the United States in the near future for talks with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff over missile defense issues, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told the media on Thursday. (Itar-Tass, 07.05.12).

·       NATO members have pledged to provide more than $1 billion to ensure the operation of the European missile defense system, Frank A. Rose, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State said on Tuesday. (RIA Novosti, 07.04.12).

·       Frank A. Rose, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State said: “We would, however, be willing to agree to a political framework for cooperation that includes a statement that our missile defenses are not oriented toward Russia. Any such statement would publicly proclaim our intent to work together and chart the direction for cooperation.” (State Department, 07.03.12).

Nuclear arms control:

·       The Obama administration is moving toward decisions that would further cut the number of U.S. nuclear weapons, possibly to between 1,000 and 1,100, reflecting new thinking on the role of nuclear weapons in an age of terror, current and former officials say. (AP, 07.06.12).

Cyber security:

·       No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

·       Gazprom and its partners could sign a new agreement this week to develop the Shtokman offshore field. (Moscow Times, 07.01.12).

·       Tensions between BP PLC and its Russian oil partners spread to the chilly seas of northern Europe this week as the British energy giant said it will suspend preliminary consultations with OAO Gazprom over a possible pipeline to supply Russian gas to the U.K. after the partners refused to allow the talks. (Wall Street Journal, 06.29.12).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

·       The State Duma Committee for Economic Policy, Innovation Development and Entrepreneurship has recommended the lower house of parliament to approve a law on the ratification of the protocol on Russia's joining the Marrakesh Agreement on founding the World Trade Organization (WTO). The plenary session is scheduled for July 10. (Itar-Tass, 07.05.12).

Other bilateral issues:

·       “We don’t think that for us Romney will be an easy partner,” Alexey Pushkov, chairman of the international affairs committee of the State Duma, said. “We think that Romney will be, on the rhetorical side, a replay of the Bush administration.” (LA Times, 07.02.12).

·       United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with representatives from local nongovernmental organizations and movements in St. Petersburg on Friday. (Interfax, 07.29.12).

·       The United States has its eyes on Russia's Be-200 amphibious aircraft to bolster American-made fire-fighting aircraft. Russia and the United States already contracted for the sale of ten planes in May 2010. (Rbth.ru, 07.02.12).

·       The CFE Treaty allows the United States to have up to 4,000 tanks in Europe, but the current number is around 90—and that is headed for zero.  (Brookings, 07.02.12).

II.                    Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

·       The Russian State Duma passed on Friday a bill that would require nonprofit organizations that receive financing from outside Russia to publicly declare themselves “foreign agents” in the first reading. The bill would put new burdens on nonprofit groups with foreign financing that are judged to be involved in politics, including annual audits and unannounced checks. Anyone who continues to participate in organizations that violated the rules could be fined up to $9,000 or sent to prison for two years. About 1,000 NGOs, including Transparency International and election monitor Golos will likely fall under the bill, according to a Kremlin source. (Gazeta.ru, 07.06.12, New York Times, Moscow Times, 07.02.12).

·       The first regions that will elect their governors on the single voting day on October 14 will be Amur, Belgorod, Bryansk and Novgorod. (Itar-Tass, 07.05.12).

·       An Associated Press-GfK poll released Monday reveals a stark divide between Moscow and the rest of Russia over Vladimir Putin. A total of 60 percent of Russians maintain a favorable opinion of the president as he begins his third term. In contrast, only 38 percent in the capital have a favorable view of him. (AP, 07.02.12).

·       The Russian Finance Ministry will calculate its forecast federal budget based on an oil price of $60 per barrel in August, Director of the Finance Ministry's Budget Department Alexei Lavrov said. A number of spending items will have to be restructured, including spending on the pension system."There is also the state armament program, economic subsidies and state contracts," Lavrov said. (Interfax, 07.04.12).

·       Capital outflows slowed to $9.5 billion in the second quarter from $33.9 billion in the first three months of the year, central bank data showed Wednesday. Total net outflow for the first half of the year stood at $43.4 billion. (Wall Street Journal, 07.04.12).

·       The consumer confidence index rose 1 point to minus 4, the highest since the third quarter of 2008, when the measure peaked at plus 1, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said. (Bloomberg, 07.05.12).

Defense:

·       Vladimir Putin said about 2.6 trillion rubles will be spent on rearming of the Ground Forces and Airborne Forces as part of the  20 trillion ruble armament program of the Defense Ministry for the period until 2020. Spending on arms for the Navy and Air Force would amount to about 5 and 4 trillion rubles respectively while another 4 trillion rubles would be spent on military space programs and airspace defense, according to earlier statements by government officials. Expenses on the Strategic Missile Forces will amount to 1 trillion rubles, according to a former official of the Defense Ministry. (WPS/Vedomosti, 07.06.12).

·       Two unidentified government sources told the Vedomosti business daily that officials were considering pushing back the start date for the $617 billion re-armament program from 2013 to 2016 due to budgetary constraints. (Moscow Times, 07.02.12).

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended the contract of Gen. Nikolai Makarov as chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces for two more years despite age limitations. (RIA Novosti, 07.02.12).

·       Yars missile launchers have been supplied to the Teikovo division of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces in the Ivanovo region. (Interfax, 07.05.12).

Security and law-enforcement:

·       A blacklist of internet sites being debated by Russia's parliament could create "real censorship" of the internet, according to a human rights watchdog set up by the Kremlin. A series of amendments to laws, which taken together create a single register for websites containing illegal content, was passed by State Duma on Friday. (Gazeta.ru, 07.06.12, Financial Times, 07.04.12).

Foreign affairs:

·       Russia appeared the main winner in the Geneva conference held by Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League envoy on Saturday, after forcing a compromise on a transitional government in Syria that no longer implicitly calls for the departure of the Syrian leader. The U.S. backed away from demands that President Bashar Assad be excluded, hoping the concession would encourage Russia to put greater pressure on its longtime ally to end the violent crackdown. Earlier Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has attempted to persuade Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that world powers need to take a more assertive role in bringing about a "political transition" to end the raging violence in Syria. (LA Times, 06.29.12, AP, Financial Times, 07.02.12).

·       Russia's Foreign Ministry says it will host talks with two Syrian opposition groups later this month to discuss a political transition plan backed by the United Nations, Russia, and the United States.  (RFE/RL, 07.02.12).

·       There are an estimated 30,000 Russian citizens living in Syria, most women and children, Russian government officials estimate. (NY Times, 07.01.12).

·       In a visit that left Japan seething, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev traveled Tuesday to a disputed Pacific island and pledged to boost financing for four islands. (AP, 07.03.12).

·       Cyprus’ president on Thursday defended his government’s decision to seek financial aid from the island nation’s eurozone partners while at the same time asking for a loan from Russia, insisting that the two are perfectly compatible. (AP, 07.05.12).

·       The U.S., Russia and China raised objections to a UN trade treaty on weapons ahead of a meeting in New York Tuesday. (Financial Times, 07.02.12).

·       Earlier this week, Russia's Gazprom gave in to customer pressure and offered German utility E.ON a price cut on its long-term gas supplies, boding well for Germany's RWE and Poland's PGNiG, who are also seeking to renegotiate. (Reuters, 07.05.12).

·       After complaining of visa delays, the Russian delegation -  that plans to attend in the Farnborough international air show – was issued British visas, a spokesman for Russia’s arms exporter Rosoboronexport said on Friday. (Gazeta.ru, 07.06.12).

·       Sociologists said that the attitude of Russians to the EU had been changing steadily. Fifty to 56 percent said in 2010 that Russia would seek admission to the EU; the rate declined to 44 percent in June 2012.  As for Russia's rapprochement with NATO, 47 percent of the respondents said that would disagree with the national interests (34 percent in May 2010). The number of supporters of closer relations with the alliance dropped from 33 percent to 26 percent within two years, according to results of a June poll by the Levada Center.  (07.05.12).

Russia's neighbors:

·       Russia hopes to extend its lease on a military base in Tajikistan after it expires in 2014, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said Friday.  Earlier this week, Moscow threatened to stop financing the 201st division after the current agreement expires in 2014. Dushanbe submitted to Moscow more than 20 terms and conditions concerning the extension of the lease. (Xinhua, 07.06.12).

·       The next meeting of the Council of CIS Defense Ministers will take place in Moscow in December 2012.The 62nd meeting held in Kaliningrad on Thursday discussed the joint use of orbiting resources of the Russian Armed Forces and socioeconomic satellites in the interest of CIS armies. (Interfax, 07.05.12).

·       The United States is launching "a historic and crucial" program of assistance, equipment, and training of the Georgian Armed Forces, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said as he introduced new Defense Minister Dimitri Shashkin to generals. Saakashvili also named a close ally, Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, to be the country’s new prime minister.  (RFE/RL, 06.30.12, (Interfax, 07.05.12).

·       The United States needs Uzbekistan’s help over Afghanistan — and has launched a flurry of overtures while putting aside concerns over human rights. Top U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have paid courtesy calls over the past year, while General Motors and other major U.S. companies look determined to deepen their involvement in the Central Asian nation. (AP, 07.06.12).

·       The UN's top human rights body has appointed an investigator to focus on Belarus.  (RFE/RL, 07.06.12).

·       The European Commission has proposed amending the bloc's visa regime with Ukraine to allow more categories of people to get multiple-entry visas into the European Union. (RFE/RL, 06.30.12).

·       About 1,000 opposition activists were rallying in the capital of Ukraine on Thursday to protest legislation upgrading the status of the Russian language. (AP, 07.05.12).

·       A former security official in Estonia has been convicted of treason and will spend 16 years in prison, while his wife received a suspended six-year sentence. Prosecutors allege the couple’s actions aided Russia. (AP, 07.03.12).

For more information about this publication please contact the The US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism at 617-496-0518.

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