Russia in Review

Media Feature

July 20, 2012

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: The US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of July 13-20, 2012

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of July 13-20, 2012

I.                    U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

·       No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

·       There are plans to bring the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran to 100% capacity in August, head of Russia's Atomenergoproekt Company Valery Limarenko said. (Interfax, 07.19.12).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

·        Russia and NATO will launch the combined transit of non-lethal cargo for international forces in Afghanistan through Ulyanovsk in early August, Russia's Acting Permanent Representative

to NATO Nicholas Korchunov said. (Itar-Tass, 07.20.12).

·       Negotiations still continue on a host of unresolved issues, such as expanded access to airspace and airports, fees, alternate routes, and the removal of restrictions on what type of military cargo can be transported along the Northern Distribution Route. Prior to June 2012 each truck traveling through territory of Central Asian countries had cost around $1,250 -- about five times what Pakistan had charged. And Uzbekistan, has sought a 50 percent surcharge on the use of its major rail link to Afghanistan. Pentagon had requested that Congress reallocate an additional $2.1 billion to cover the costs of the greater reliance on the NDN.  (Foreign Affairs, 07.18.12).

Missile defense:

·       Russia's Aerospace Defense Forces will carry out their first test-firings of the new S-400 air defense missile system in August. (RIA Novosti, 07.14.12).

·       The Pentagon is building a missile defense radar station at a covert location in Qatar. The radar in Qatar would be the fourth deployment of a TPY-2 configured as a forward-based X-band (FBX) radar, after Japan, Israel and Turkey (AFP, 07.17.12, Mostly Missile Defense, 07.18.12).

Nuclear arms control:

·       The casualties of the (pre-election) calendar include a presidential decision on how deeply to cut the stockpile of strategic nuclear warheads, even below the levels in the New Start treaty with Russia. The administration has all but completed a review of options for Mr. Obama’s consideration, officials said, but the announcement has been delayed for months. The president, whose ultimate goal is to eliminate all nuclear weapons, can choose among three options, officials said: a reduction to 1,550 warheads, as stipulated in New Start; a middle ground of about 1,000 warheads, which they describe as the leading candidate; and a radical reduction to 300 to 400 warheads.  (New York Times, 07.19.12).

·       General Robert Kehler, the current commander of the Strategic Command, said that the traditional U.S. nuclear triad—comprised of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bomber aircraft—remains “the best arrangement that we have today.”  (Foundry, 07.18.12).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

·       No significant developments.

Cyber security:

·       No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

·       Shares of Russia’s second-largest natural gas company, Novatek, have risen nearly 8 percent in the last few trading days on reports that Novatek is said to have reached an agreement with Energie Baden-Württemberg, or EnBW, the third-largest electric utility in Germany, for the delivery of about 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. Gazprom may have retained a role as a middleman in shipping the fuel. (New York Times, 07.18.12).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

·       The Russian upper house of parliament (Should upper house of parliament be upper-case?) on Wednesday passed the bill ratifying Russia's entry into the WTO, the final legislative step required before President Vladimir Putin signs it into law. The accession will become Russian law 30 days after Putin signs the measure. (AFP, 07.18.20).

·       The House of Representatives’ Ways and Means Committee chairman will vote next week on a bill to repeal the Jackson-Vanik act and grant Russia PNTR status. Chairman of the Committee Dave Camp said the Magnitsky bill was outside the jurisdiction of his committee but that he, Levin and the two leaders of the panel’s trade subcommittee, Reps. Kevin Brady, R-Texas and Jim McDermott, D-Wash., favored combining the two bills on the House floor. The Senate Finance Committee unanimously approved a similar bill on Wednesday. With only two weeks remaining before Congress leaves for its August recess, neither the Senate nor the House has set a date for final votes. Supporters of the measure say current exports to Russia — about $9 billion a year — could double in five years if trade relations are normalized. (Reuters, 07.18.12, AP, 07.19.12).

·       "Did we succeed in breaking the prevalent mood in the American Congress? I think we did generate some doubts about the indisputability of the line that is being pursued [in the U.S.], which is very important," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said following a visit last week to the U.S. by leading Russian lawmakers to give their account of the Magnitsky affair. (RIA Novosti, 07.17.12).

Other bilateral issues:

·       Russia and China again vetoed a Western-backed U.N. resolution Thursday aimed at pressuring President Bashar Assad’s government to end the escalating civil war in Syria. The defeat leaves in limbo the future of the 300-strong U.N. observer mission in Syria.  Its mandate expires Friday. “We simply cannot accept a document under Chapter 7, one which would open the path for the pressure of sanctions and further to external military involvement in Syrian domestic affairs,” Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said.  U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said history will judge the Russians and Chinese “harshly,” saying their vetoes at a time when the conflict is deteriorating rapidly “threatens to engulf the region in a wider war.” (AP, 07.19.12).

·       The Russian and US Presidents, Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama, after a telephone conversation on Wednesday, reached a "better understanding of each other's positions (on the situation in Syria), but disagreements remain concerning practical ways of the Syrian problem settlement," Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists. "President Obama called Russian President Putin today to discuss the developing situation in Syria," the statement said. "The two presidents noted the growing violence in Syria and agreed on the need to support a political transition as soon as possible that achieves our shared goal of ending the violence and avoiding a further deterioration of the situation,” according to a White House statement. (Foreign Policy, 07.18.12, Itar-Tass, 07.19.12).

·       The House of Representatives voted Thursday to stop the Pentagon from doing business with Russian company Rosoboronexport that has armed Bashar Assad’s regime. (AP, 07.19.12).

·       “We learned that U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder is considering the return of Victor Bout to Russia, along with another Russian arms and drugs trafficker, Konstantin Yaroshenko,” Kathi Lynn Austin, who heads the Conflict Awareness Project, said. (RIA Novosti, 07.17.12).

·       Two Russian Tupolev Tu-95MS strategic bombers will fly to the Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, United States, in 2013 under an agreement reached during a recent visit of senior officers from the Russian Long-Range Air Force to the United States. Two American B-52 strategic bombers will fly to the Russian air force base in Engels, Saratov region, the same year in an exchange visit. (Interfax, 07.17.12).

II.                    Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

·       President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia's rich-poor divide is unacceptably wide and promised renewed efforts to decrease the gap in earnings. "Unfortunately, 13 percent, or roughly 18 million people, still live below the poverty line," Putin said. (Moscow Times, 07.18.12).

·       Under the budget plan, Russia intends to cut spending by 10.5 billion in 2013, compared with its previous projections. The plan also envisages reducing the share of federal government spending to 18.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, down from 21 percent in 2012, and reducing the oil price at which the budget balances to $105.4 per barrel in 2015, from its present $116 per barrel.  (Reuters, 07.18.12).

·       Around 30% of decisions and regulations made by the Russian executive branch of power have an adverse effect on the country's investment climate, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. (Interfax, 07.17.12).

·       Russia and Kazakhstan have warned that bad weather will reduce the size of their grain crops this year, adding an additional supply worry to stressed global agricultural markets. (Financial Times, 07.18.12).

Defense:

·       Russia was likely to cut its defense spending in the next three years by about 20 percent, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Friday. He said a decision on the cuts, representing about 200 billion rubles ($6.25 billion U), was "likely" to be made soon. (Xinhua, 07.20.12).

·       The number of Army brigades will increase to 125 by the year 2020 from about a hundred now, commander of Russia’s Ground Forces Vladimir Chirkin said. (Interfax, 07.16.12).

·       The Russian Defence Ministry has decided to convert most of the Ground Troops' [tracked] armoured vehicles into wheeled versions, commander of Russia’s Ground Forces Vladimir Chirkin said. (Interfax, 07.16.12).

Security and law-enforcement:

·       The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) must respond in a timely manner to attempts to destabilize the socio-political situation in our country, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with senior officers. (Interfax, 07.18.12).

·       A top Muslim cleric in Russia’s Tatarstan province was shot dead and another was wounded by a car bomb in two attacks that local leaders initially said were related to the priests’ criticism of radical Islamists. But then Russian Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin suggested the attacks could be linked to control over hajj funding.  (AP, 07.19.12. RFE/RL, 07.20.12).

·       Canadian officials were looking into reports Monday that young Ontario boxer William Plotniko was among seven insurgents killed in Dagestan on Friday when they were ambushed by the police and military. (National Post, 07.17.12).

·       Russian investigators have charged   retired police officer Dmitry Pavlyuchenkov with helping organize the 2006 killing of investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya. (AP, 07.16.12).

Foreign affairs:

·       The Russian ambassador to France said on Friday he believed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had accepted he would have to leave power although only in an orderly fashion, but the Syrian government swiftly denied this. (Reuters, 07.20.12).

·       Russia on Friday slammed as “unacceptable” Western charges that it was inciting even more violence in Syria by blocking with China possible sanctions against its Middle East ally for the third time. Moscow also said it will vote in favor of passing a UN Security Council draft resolution that extends the UN observer mission in Syria."We will support it because we helped draft it together with our Pakistani colleagues," Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told reporters on Friday. (AFP, Russia Today, 07.20.12).

·       China called on Russia to explain what it called an "alleged attack" on a Chinese fishing vessel this week, as well as the fate of a sailor missing off Russia's east coast. (Wall Street Journal, 07.19.12).

·       A consortium led by Russia’s private oil giant Lukoil has signed a preliminary deal with Iraq to explore for oil in the south. (AP, 07.17.12).

·       The Russian Foreign Ministry is planning to open a Facebook page in the near future and has already launched special courses to teach diplomats how to make the most of their Twitter accounts to help promote Russia's position on the world stage. (RIA Novosti, 07.16.12).

Russia's neighbors:

·       Russia’s state-owned atomic energy company will build Belarus’ first nuclear power plant, worth about $10 billion. (AP, 07.18.12).

·       The commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, Mark Hertling, has met with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in Tbilisi for talks on defense cooperation and Georgia's role in Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 07.18.12).

·       The U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Energy and the European Commission participated in a series of field training exercises with the Republics of Armenia and Georgia from July 9-13, 2012. (NNSA, 07.17.12).

·       Sweden's Chief Public Prosecutor Krister Petersson says Uzbekistan's secret services must have been behind the attempted assassination of a prominent Uzbek religious cleric in Sweden. (RFE/RL, 07.19.12).

·       Preliminary results show Bako Sahakian, the incumbent separatist leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-controlled territory inside Azerbaijan, has won the presidential election there. (RFE/RL, 07.20.12).

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