BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Environmental and Natural Resources Program
Annual Report Chapter, BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Environment and Natural Resources
Other Chapters in BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999:
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Associates
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Bios
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Director's Foreword
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Overview
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: International Security Program
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Science Technology & Public Policy Program
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: Strengthening Democratic Instituitions Project
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: BCSIA Events
- BCSIA Annual Report, 1998-1999: BCSIA Publications
BCSIA: 1998-1999 ANNUAL REPORT
3. Environmental and Natural Resources Program
CORE FACULTY AND STAFF
Robert Stavins, Faculty Chair, ENRP; Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government
Henry Lee, Jaidah Family Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program; Lecturer in Public Policy
Abram Chayes, Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law (emeritus), Harvard Law School, Harvard University
William Clark, Harvey Brooks Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development; Director, Global Environmental Assessment Project
Cary Coglianese, Associate Professor of Public Policy
Nancy Dickson, Associate Director, Global Environmental Assessment Project
Karen Filipovich, Associate Research Director, ENRP
William Hogan, Lucius N. Littauer Professor of International Political Economy
John Holdren, Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy; Program Director and Faculty Chair, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program
Sheila Jasanoff, Professor of Science and Public Policy
Marelu Justus, Assistant to the Faculty Chair, ENRP
Joseph Kalt, Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy
Jo-Ann Mahoney, Coordinator, Events and Publications, ENRP
Theodore Panayotou, Fellow, Harvard Institute for International Development
Edward Parson, Associate Professor of Public Policy
Bonnie Robinson, Assistant to Professors Clark and Parson, ENRP
Philip Sharp, Lecturer in Public Policy
Liz Tempesta, Assistant to the Director, ENRP
Carter Bales, Director and Senior Partner, McKinsey and Company
Stanley Charren, former Chairman, Kennetech, Inc.
Charles Curtis, Partner, Hogan & Hartson
Mitchell Dong, President, Chronos Asset Management
Mary Gade, Attorney, Sonnenschein, Nath & Rosenthal and former Chair, Illinois Environmental Protection Agency
William Haney, ENRP Senior Fellow, BCSIA, and former Chair, Molten Metal
Teresa Heinz, Chair, Heinz Family Endowments
Harold Hestnes, Senior Partner, Hale and Dorr
Frederic Krupp, Executive Director, Environmental Defense Fund
William Reilly, former Administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ellen Roy, Senior Vice President, Intercontinental Energy Corporation
John Sawhill, President, the Nature Conservancy
Donald Smith, President, Smith Cogeneration
Mason Willrich, Principal, Nth Power Technologies
Timothy Wirth, President, the United Nations Foundation
ASSOCIATES AND FELLOWS
Charles H. W. Foster, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Kennedy School of Government
Alexander Golub, Research Fellow, ENRP
William Haney, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Alastair Iles, Ph.D. candidate, Harvard Law School
Nathaniel Keohane, Ph.D. candidate, Kennedy School of Government
Ruben Lubowksi, Ph.D. candidate, Kennedy School of Government
Carlos Rufin, Crump Fellow 1998-99, Ph.D. candidate, Kennedy School of Government
Shashi Verma, Ph.D. 1999, Kennedy School of Government
William Dietrich, EIP Associates
Kristen Eddy, Web consultant
Peter Haas, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Cheryl Holdren, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Robert Kates, Professor Emeritus, Brown University
Kai Lee, Professor, Center for Environmental Studies, Williams College
William Meyer, George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University
Vicki Norberg-Bohm, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FELLOWS AND ASSOCIATES
David Cash, Kennedy School of Government
Aarti Gupta, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University
Wolfgang Jung, Department of Political Science, Free University, Berlin, Germany
Anthony Patt, Kennedy School of Government
Frank Biermann, Free University of Berlin, Germany
Susanne Moser, School of Geography, Clark University
Sandra Rothenberg, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
David Levy, Associate Professor, College of Management, University of Massachusetts
Shardul Agrawala, Ph.D. Candidate, Woodrow Wilson School of Public Policy, Princeton University
Pascal Bader, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, University of Augsburg, Germany
Barbara Connolly, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Tufts University
Ellis Cowling, Professor, School of Forestry, North Carolina State University
William Easterling, Professor, Departments of Geography and Earth and Planetary Sciences, Pennsylvania State University
Alex Farrell, Research Faculty, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Cheryl Holdren, Kennedy School of Government
Leen Hordijk, Professor and Director, Wageningen Institute of Environment and Climate Research, Netherlands
Jill JÃ¤ger, Executive Director, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, Germany
Milind Kandlikar, Research Faculty, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Terry Keating, AAAS Fellow, Office of Policy Analysis, US Environmental Protection Agency
Robert Keohane, Professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University
Jonathan Krueger, Ph.D. Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK
Marc Levy, Lead Project Scientist, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University
Marybeth Long , Ph.D. Candidate, Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ronald Mitchell, Professor, Dept. of Political Science, University of Oregon
Colin Polsky, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University
Walter Rosenbaum, Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of Florida
Paul Samson, Policy Advisor, Natural Resources Canada
The Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) and its earlier iterations have conducted research at the Kennedy School of Government and influenced U.S. and international environmental policy decisions for nearly 20 years. ENRP joined the then Center for Science and International Affairs in 1991.
ENRP has served as the hub where faculty, students, and visiting scholars engage in inter-disciplinary research on environmental policy issues. The program''s research agenda focuses on many of the relevant policy questions confronting our society: market-based approaches to reducing pollution; global climate change; energy research and development; sustainable development; and natural resource management in the United States and abroad. Through ongoing research efforts, ENRP has built links to key decisionmakers in the U.S. government, as well as the nongovernmental organization (NGO) and business communities. In 1998-99, ENRP continued to place a strong emphasis on policies to reduce greenhouse gases, covering issues from the design of tradable permit programs to biological sequestration to international cooperative initiatives.
Within the ENRP umbrella, the Global Environmental Assessment Project (GEA) is a major international research initiative comprising more than 30 scholars. GEA is dedicated to improving the linkages between science and policy in society''s efforts to deal with global environmental change. Entering its fourth year, the project has actively engaged scientists and policymakers in both the United States and Europe and is reshaping the intellectual debate on designing effective environmental assessments and policy responses.
In 1998-99, three new research appointments greatly enhanced ENRP''s capabilities. Sheila Jasanoff, founding Chair of Cornell''s Department of Science and Technology Studies and one of the world''s foremost scholars in science, technology, and the environment, joined the Kennedy School in September as Professor of Science and Public Policy. She began developing a major new research initiative on biotechnology entitled "Managing the Gene." After five years as head of the United Nations'' Secretariat for biodiversity, Calestous Juma has joined ENRP''s research efforts on biological issues. William Haney, an ENRP Steering Committee member, accepted a two-year research appointment with ENRP to pursue forestry policy and to develop an outreach initiative on global natural resources issues. ENRP''s mandate is to conduct cutting-edge research and to ensure that the results of its inquiry contribute to the public policy debate. To achieve this mission, ENRP has devised a three-pillared approach with equal emphasis on (1) research, (2) teaching and training, and (3) outreach. Faculty connected with ENRP teach a range of courses on topics including sustainable development, natural resource economics, environmental management and politics, international environmental law, and negotiations and natural resource policy. This past year, core faculty redesigned our flagship course on the environment for introduction in fall 1999. Case material drawn from ongoing empirical and theoretical research has been used to enhance the curriculum of both graduate and executive training programs. In May 1999, ENRP initiated a new executive program under Professor Robert Stavins'' direction, Economics and the Environment: A Course for the Non-Economist. During the eight-day curriculum, participants received theoretical and empirical training in environmental economics as currently practiced by leaders in the field.
The two-week executive training course, designed over the past two years, on the privatization and regulation of infrastructure in developing countries entitled "Infrastructure in a Market Economy" has become a regular Kennedy School executive program offering, bringing senior executives and government officials from Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa to Cambridge in January and July. A one-day intensive session was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for officials in the Middle East in 1998, and abbreviated sessions were conducted for leaders in Brazil and South Africa. Fifteen new cases were developed this year for use in these infrastructure courses.
Papers produced by ENRP researchers are distributed widely to government officials, and leaders from business, academia, and NGOs. In 1998-99, ENRP disseminated more than 20 new research papers.
ENRP convenes workshops and executive sessions that bring together senior officials from government, industry, and key interest groups to discuss major policy issues in a neutral setting. ENRP organized a multifaceted workshop on carbon management in conjunction with the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP) on June 14-15, 1999, which brought together senior officials working on the technological, biological, and economic aspects of carbon management and sequestration in the United States. Led by Robert Stavins, the Kennedy School joined with the American Association of Environmental Resource Economists to host a major workshop on Market-Based Instruments for Environmental Protection on July 18-20, 1999, which was attended by 200 economists.
In 1998-99, various environment and natural resources events included: a forum with Bill Richardson, U.S. Secretary of Energy, on "Nuclear Security Issues in the Former Soviet Union"; a seminar with John Adams, Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Natural Resources Defense Council on "Kyoto, Buenos Aires, and Beyond: A Pragmatist''s View of How Washington Politics Affects Global Environmental Issues"; a BCSIA Director''s luncheon with Eileen Claussen, Director of the Pew Center, focusing on "New Strategies to Meet the Challenges of Global Climate Change"; and a lecture by Dr. Peter Ashton, Charles Bullard Professor of Forestry on the "Problems of Sustainable Forests in Tropical Asia." ENRP''s work in 1998-99 was sponsored by the following organizations: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA); the U.S. Department of Energy; the National Science Foundation; the National Institute for Global Environmental Change; the Jaidah Family Endowment; the Shell Corporation; AMOCO; the Inter-American Development Bank; and Unidad Electrica S.A., the electric utility consortium of Spain. Endowment support was received from the Roy Family Fund, which made a most generous gift to support the creation of an annual lectureship on public and private partnerships for the environment, a visiting fellow, and a special fund to support new research initiatives, and a student intern program. Work in previous years has been funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Agencia de Desenvolvimento Tiete Parana, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the National Park Foundation, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and IBM and Mobil corporations.
Research agenda and policy outreach
Research in 1998-99 focused on the following main issue areas:
I. Climate Change Research, a multifaceted effort sponsored by the U.S. EPA to analyze means to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, both nationally and globally, through joint implementation and the use of market incentives.
II. Global Environmental Assessment Project, a five-year international collaborative program of interdisciplinary research and training. The project explores how assessment activities can better link scientific understanding with the progressive design, implementation, and evaluation of effective policy responses to global environmental change.
III. Market-Based Systems for Achieving Environmental Goals, which examines innovative, market-based instruments for implementing cost-effective means to meet environmental standards.
IV. Executive Training Initiatives, two training programs designed by ENRP to introduce economics to the noneconomist and to teach government officials and business leaders from developing countries how to privatize and manage infrastructure effectively.
In addition, ENRP researchers have been integrally involved in three STPP research areas: the Managing the Atom Project, the Energy R&D for a Greenhouse-Gas Constrained World Project, and the Managing the Gene Project.
A description of specific initiatives for 1998-99 within each research area follows.
ENRP faculty and researchers were actively involved in the climate change debate. This is a continuation of one of the Kennedy School''s research foci over the past decade. Bill Clark, our former faculty chair, was one of the primary participants in the Villach Conference in the mid-1980s -- the findings from which had a major influence on both the policy and the science of this topic. In 1989, the School initiated a major program, the Harvard Global Environmental Policy Project, to explore policy responses and negotiation strategies for reducing carbon emissions. This work was linked to preparatory discussions at both the domestic and international levels leading up to the Rio Summit in 1992. A compendium of a portion of this work was published in 1994 --Shaping National Responses to Climate Change: A Post-Rio Guide.
In 1996-97, the School once again dramatically increased its research on the topic of climate change, driven in part by the Kyoto Conference held in December 1997. Approximately eight faculty members and 12 doctoral-level researchers became involved in a number of major research projects, some within Harvard and others --- such as John Holdren''s report on Energy R&D in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained World done for the President''s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) --- outside Harvard. In November 1997, President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore convened the White House Symposium on Climate Change. The Kennedy School was the only organization represented by two of its leaders --- John Holdren and Robert Stavins, both of whom have been actively involved in advising the Clinton administration on climate change policies.
Most of our present and proposed research has focused on policy responses to meet international targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In years past, faculty members have looked at issues ranging from carbon taxes to joint implementation. This year our efforts focused on five areas: domestic responses, international permit trading, the economics of carbon sequestration in the United States, the Clean Development Mechanism, and Energy Research and Development.
Given the political opposition to a carbon tax, the domestic policy option of choice seems to be a tradable carbon program similar in design to the existing sulfur allowance program. In earlier work, Robert Stavins demonstrated that there were significant differences between the two programs. Henry Lee expanded on this research in an ENRP discussion paper released in the fall.
Lee concluded that administrative and efficiency concerns would likely drive policymakers to require fossil-fuel producers rather than users to hold carbon permits. This upstream system would look more like the oil allocation control system of the 1970s than the sulfur allowance system of the 1990s. Lee reviewed several key questions that would have to be answered:
Does government assume the administrative cost of including all producers in the system or does it focus on the largest 75 percent and run the risk of opening the system to opportunistic gaming? Given that more than 10 percent of the oil and gas in the country is used for nonenergy purposes, such as petrochemicals, how should government treat this volume? If countries adopted different carbon reduction policies, how would the United States handle imported fossil fuels as well as products containing fossil fuels? How should government initially allocate the permits?
Lee explores these and other questions and concludes that tradable permits are a viable means of meeting the United States'' reduction target, but the challenges to design, develop, and implement such a program are much larger than conventional wisdom would have one believe.
In a second project, Lee, along with Shashi Verma, a doctoral student at the Kennedy School, are looking at the economic incentives needed to switch most of the Midwest electric generating plants from coal to natural gas. This project, now in its final stages, has built a simple model of the cost of operating the existing array of coal-fired generating stations. Lee and Verma then add the cost of meeting existing sulfur, nitrogen dioxide, and airborne particle standards and pose the question: How large a carbon tax will be needed to switch a majority of the coal fleet to gas?
The researchers completed an assessment of the impact of such a switch on natural gas markets in mid-July and should have a final report available by October.International Permit Trading
Virtually all design studies and many projections of the costs of meeting the Kyoto targets have assumed that an international greenhouse gas trading program can be established that will minimize the costs of meeting the treaty''s goals. Professor Robert Stavins and Research Associate Robert Hahn have completed an important monograph raising serious doubts that such a trading regime will be easy to implement. The final version of their paper, "What Has Kyoto Wrought? The Real Architecture of International Permit Markets," was presented by Robert Stavins at the Tenth Session of the Subsidiary Bodies of the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, in Bonn, Germany, in June 1999.
The researchers point out that costs can be minimized if all countries use domestic tradable permit systems to meet their national targets and allow for international trades. But this is an unlikely outcome. Instead some countries will use nontrading approaches, such as carbon or greenhouse gas taxes or fixed quantity standards. Establishing an international trading regime will require some form of project-by-project credit program, and such a program will significantly raise transaction costs.Finally the authors point out that there is an important trade-off between the degree of foreign sovereignty and the degree of cost-effectiveness. If individual nations are allowed to choose their own domestic reduction options, then those choices may limit the cost-saving potential of an international trading regime.
Carbon Sequestration in the United States
Increased attention by policymakers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function, will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions.
ENRP Research fellow Alexander Golub conducted a study of the cost of carbon sequestration in Russia''s forests. The study finds that costs are higher than one might expect, particularly in Asian Russia because of high regeneration and transaction costs. The potential for global carbon uptake in Russia is particularly large, however, because of the size of its forests. Golub''s research, "Preliminary Estimation of the Forest Project''s Efficiency for Carbon Sequestration in Russia," will be disseminated as an ENRP discussion paper in early fall 1999.
Building upon previous econometric analysis and simulation modeling Professor Robert Stavins is currently engaged in a new econometric/simulation research project, in collaboration with Andrew Plantinga of the University of Maine, and Ruben Lubowski, a Ph.D. student in Political Economy and Government at Harvard. This work is supported by a three-year grant from the U.S. Department of Energy. In addition, Stavins is engaged in a related two-year project for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, which frames the carbon sequestration analysis within the larger subject of global climate change policy, describes the analysis and its results, and highlights the implications of this work for public policy and for ongoing research by economists and others.
In a major ongoing research endeavor, Robert Stavins has explored the costs of carbon sequestration through induced land-use changes, using econometric methods. An initial paper, "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," will be published in 1999 in the American Economic Review. An additional paper was coauthored with Richard Newell of Resources for the Future, "Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration."
In the new project, an econometric analysis of land use in the 48 contiguous United States will be carried out and the results employed to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners'' actual behavior, this approach circumvents many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, this study will provide the best available estimates of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, it will add significantly to public understanding of the costs and potential of this important strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.
Clean Development Mechanism
The Kyoto Protocol established the outlines of a program, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), that would allow developed countries to invest in climate reduction projects in developing countries and receive credit for the reductions. This mechanism is seen as a way to significantly reduce the cost of meeting the Kyoto targets, but also facilitates the transfer of funds and technologies to developing countries that would otherwise not occur.
Researchers at the ENRP have looked at six projects in China, India, and Brazil that have the potential to provide tangible benefits to the host country and measurable carbon reduction credits to the investing country. These projects could be categorized as win-win opportunities.
The results of the research indicated that the potential for significant carbon reductions under the CDM was likely to be more limited than government officials have claimed. Large transaction costs, difficulties in attributing reductions to specific investments, sovereignty concerns, preferences for domestic technology, lack of information, and labyrinthic government processes will make CDM investments less attractive to potential investors. Further, a CDM regime that calls for strict proof that the carbon reductions would not otherwise occur and a monitoring and compliance regime that is guaranteed to work will be limited, while one that is more flexible will have less net carbon reductions than anticipated.
Under the leadership of Professor John Holdren, BCSIA''s Science and Technology Policy Program (STPP) and its Environment and Natural Resources Program have established a multiyear program to assess energy R&D strategies for a greenhouse constrained world.
At the request of President Clinton, Holdren and his researchers have prepared a new PCAST report
Powerful Partnerships: The Federal Role in International Cooperation on Energy Innovation
with recommendations on international cooperation on energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment. The report includes discussions of all major energy supply options; a wide variety of efficiency and end-use issues; greenhouse gas emissions reduction and other major energy challenges as drivers; and appropriate roles for government and the private sector and for the United States versus other nations and international institutions, technology transfer, trade, and intellectual property issues.
Energy R&D research has also focused on a detailed review of energy policies in India and China. The ongoing project on India includes extensive field interviews, work with the Indian government on the country''s approach to climate change, participation in U.S.-India Academies of Science exchanges in energy policy and issues. The Kennedy School''s Energy R&D Project is also participating in the U.S.-China Academies'' joint study on energy policy issues, including environmental concerns.Government Policy Effects on Energy Efficient Technology
Ongoing climate change policy discussions and recent Clinton administration initiatives for improving energy efficiency through tax credits and research funding suggest that the importance of the relationship between public policy and technological change is of more than academic interest alone. The ability to estimate the likely effects of these and other potential climate change policies on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions requires an improved understanding of the relationship between different policy alternatives and energy-saving changes in technology. This is the subject of a new research project in which Robert Stavins is engaged with co-principal investigators Adam Jaffe of Brandeis University and Richard Newell of Resources for the Future. The dissertation work of Nathaniel Keohane, a Ph.D. student in Political Economy and Government, is being supported by the project.
Technological changes may be decomposed into three interrelated and somewhat overlapping processes: invention, innovation, and diffusion. In previous research, Stavins'' team focused separately on the innovation and diffusion stages - namely the extent to which energy prices, technology costs, and the regulatory environment affect the energy-efficiency of the menu of available products and the particular models people select when choosing from this menu. The proposed new work will undertake the important and essential integrating steps of jointly analyzing the innovation and diffusion of energy-saving technologies, as well as the inventions that underlie these technology changes. Researchers will investigate how the economic and regulatory environment influenced the full path of technological change.
II. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT PROJECT
The Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) Project is a collaborative, interdisciplinary effort to improve the linkage between science and policy in society''s efforts to deal with problems of global environmental change. The project is based at Harvard under the auspices of the University Committee on the Environment, drawing on faculty and students from the natural sciences, social sciences, and professional schools. The project also has substantial participation from scholars and practitioners of global environmental assessment around the world.
This project reflects the belief that global environmental change poses unprecedented challenges for informed and effective policymaking. These are challenges that existing scholarship and policy experience
grounded largely in domestic environmental management or in international agreements on other problems
have not prepared society to meet. Knowledge relevant to the management of global environmental change is growing rapidly. But it remains incomplete, selective, and contested across nations and cultures. Relevant policymaking has likewise advanced substantially in recent years. But it remains fragmented, diffuse, and tentative. Formal assessments such as those prepared in support of the negotiations on climate change and biodiversity have gone some distance toward bridging the gap between incomplete science and contentious policy. But little understanding exists regarding what sorts of assessment processes have been most effective or why others have failed. Moreover, nowhere is there a systematic effort to train the next generation of scientists, policy analysts, and international law specialists in the unique skills of collaborating effectively in the future management of global environmental change.
The project''s goal is to explore how assessment activities can better link scientific understanding with the progressive design, implementation, and evaluation of effective policy responses to global environmental change. The GEA Project believes that achieving this integration is the most fundamental challenge that must be met for societies to more effectively manage, and live with, global environmental change. The first three years of the project focused on assessment experience in global climate change and transboundary air pollution with special attention to North America, Europe, and South Asia. The project will continue to explore these issues and regions and expand to encompass other developing countries and environmental problems.
Project participants collaborate through a four-pronged strategy designed to leverage their shared interests and harness them in a common, interdisciplinary effort:Fellows
To help build the next generation of professionals trained in and sensitive to the unique problems of linking science and policy on global environmental problems, the GEA Project recruits eight to ten fellows to join the project each year. Recruitment takes place through an international competition open to natural and social scientists as well as professional school students. A unique aspect of the GEA Project is its commitment to bringing together a critical mass of young scholars from different disciplines and nationalities so that they can learn from and collaborate with one another at a formative stage in their careers. A network of alumni fellows is maintained by the project to encourage continuing collaboration. In its first three years, the project will have graduated 23 fellows from ten disciplines and from five nationalities. There are 11 predoctoral, 9 postdoctoral and 3 faculty fellows are working on the project in 1998-99.
A year-long program of interdisciplinary training and research involves fellows, faculty, and guests in a research seminar. In the fall term, the fellows participate in a research seminar devoted to reading and critical discussion of relevant scholarship from a wide range of disciplines and professional perspectives. Guest lectures throughout the year on current scholarship in relevant science and policy supplement this research seminar. In the spring term, fellows present their research results in the seminar.
The project has hosted four major workshops that bring together scholars and practitioners of global environmental assessment. The workshops include participants from communities of assessment scholars, producers, and users. The goal is to provide an opportunity for sustained international, interdisciplinary cross-fertilization, criticism, and collaboration.
The GEA Project produces four types of publications: progress reports to sponsors, workshop reports, discussion papers, and articles. Discussion papers are produced under the auspices of the ENRP discussion paper series.
GEA 1998-99 Thematic Areas
Four cross-cutting thematic areas have been the focus of research by the GEA Project during 1998-99.
Design and Management of Effective Assessments of Global Environmental Issues: A variety of design and management options have been used in conducting assessments of global environmental issues. Research in this area seeks to determine under what conditions particular assessment designs are more or less effective. Special attention is given to the implications of choices regarding participation, the treatment of uncertainty, and the handling of consensus and dissent. The merits of large, comprehensive assessments relative to focused rapid-response assessments are also being evaluated.
Credibility of information provided by international institutions: International institutions provide information to decisionmakers, including but not restricted to leaders of national governments. The credibility of this information is likely to affect its impacts on policies and other actions taken by decisionmakers. Research in this area explores the conditions under which information produced by international institutions
including but not restricted to environmental assessments
is in fact credible to decisionmakers.Information systems linking global assessment to local decisionmaking: Many of the decisions through which societies respond to global environmental issues are "local," occurring at the scale of families, firms, organizations, and regional or state governments. By and large, global environmental assessments connect with and inform these local decisionmakers only indirectly, through formal and informal institutional networks, and information systems that cross multiple scales. Research in this area examines how the histories, issue linkages, and structures of such systems affect trust in, and utility of, the information they convey.Construction of science and technology in international assessments: Assessment processes constitute frameworks within which knowledge about the environment is shaped, stabilized, transmitted, and made relevant to political action. Research in this area examines the construction of environmental knowledge in international institutions or in comparative, cross-national settings.III. MARKET-BASED SYSTEMS FOR ACHIEVING ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS
Robert Stavins, appointed ENRP Faculty Chair in 1997, has been a major force in the Center''s work devising and analyzing market-based instruments to tackle environmental goals. Ten years ago, at the request of U.S. Senators Timothy Wirth (D-Colo.) and John Heinz (R-Penn.), Stavins assembled and directed a team of 50 persons from academia, government, private industry, and the environmental community in a bipartisan effort
which produced the report "Harnessing Market Forces to Protect Our Environment: Initiatives for the New President." The tradable permit system for acid-rain reduction, recommended by Project 88, was included in the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990.
Over the past decade, increasing attention has been paid to market-based instruments
principally pollution taxes, fees, and tradable permits
as a supplement to or substitute for conventional command-and-control instruments. Market-based instruments can be cost effective, minimizing the aggregate cost of achieving an environmental target, and can provide dynamic incentives for the adoption and diffusion of better technologies.
The American political process has gradually become more receptive to market-based instruments. Tradable permit systems were used in the 1980s to accomplish the phasedown of lead in gasoline and to facilitate the phase out of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. In the 1990s, tradable permit systems were used to implement stricter air pollution controls in the Los Angeles metropolitan region and
to control acid rain under the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990.
In 1998, researchers led by Robert Stavins completed a multiyear study of economic lessons learned from the SO2 allowance trading program, examining the most extensive application ever attempted of a market-based approach to environmental protection. The results of this research appeared in an article in the summer edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Stavins has also developed a revealed-preference method for econometrically estimating the supply (marginal cost) function for carbon sequestration. In 1999, Robert Hahn and Robert Stavins completed research, sponsored by the U.S. EPA, on the implementation of tradable permit regimes for global climate change. In a coauthored monograph, "What Has Kyoto Wrought? The Real Architecture of International Tradeable Permits," these researchers investigated likely performance of international greenhouse gas trading mechanisms in the presence of a heterogeneous set of domestic greenhouse policy instruments.
ENRP''s market-based research has also focused on environmental technology innovation in the energy field. For three years, a Stavins-led team, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, has been studying econometrically the factors affecting the nature, rate, and direction of innovation in energy-efficiency technology. An article appeared in the summer edition of Quarterly Journal of Economicsby Richard Newell, Adam Jaffee, and Robert Stavins, titled "The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change." In 1998, the team received a new $500,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to expand its research to the invention and diffusion of energy-efficient technology.
ENRP researchers have also investigated why there has been a great divergence between the recommendations of normative economic theory and positive political reality in regard to market-based and alternative forms of environmental policy instruments. Drawing upon intellectual traditions from economics, political science, and law, a set of researchers
Nathaniel Keohane, Richard Revesz, and Robert Stavins
identified theoretical explanations in an article published in the fall of 1999 in the Harvard Environmental Law Review, "The Choice of Regulatory Instruments in Environmental Policy." Robert Stavins and Richard Newell, an economist at Resources for the Future in Washington D.C., are developing a method for using limited information available during the early stages of policy development to estimate the potential gains from using economic incentives relative to other approaches to achieve environmental performance. The work is supported by the U.S. EPA. The degree of heterogeneity among sources in their marginal costs of pollution abatement may be the single most important factor affecting the relative cost of market-based versus conventional environmental regulations. The researchers seek to develop practical guidance for policymakers about the potential cost savings from using tradable permits or corrective taxes, rather than conventional policy instruments.
The analysis will provide a set of relatively parsimonious and intuitive "rules-of-thumb" for organizing understanding of the importance of cost heterogeneity and estimating its implications in particular policy situations. Features of a cost distribution (its degree of dispersion, asymmetry, and peakedness) may affect the gains from trade in different ways. Higher variance should lead to greater gains; cost distributions that are skewed left (right) should generally exhibit greater (lesser) gains relative to a symmetric distribution with the same range of costs. The more peaked is the distribution of costs, the lower should be the potential costsavings from incentive-based approaches. Decisionmakers need to know when to pursue the development of market-based instruments, because these instruments are not appropriate for all problems in all circumstances, and significant political costs may be involved in their pursuit. The project''s rules-of-thumb will help decisionmakers with minimal data at their disposal.
In addition, Stavins is coediting with Paul Portney the new edition of Public Policies for Environmental Protection, which includes a new chapter by Stavins on "Market-Based Environmental Policies." More broadly, Stavins is writing a chapter for the new Handbook of Environmental Economics on "Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments." Stavins is also editing a new book for Ashgate on Comparative Analysis of Environmental Policy Instruments.
Research, training, and outreach at the Kennedy School have long emphasized the role of market-based instruments, and we continue to expand our research in this area. Courses offered focusing exclusively on the economic dimensions of environmental policy included a course on Environmental and Resource Economics and Policy (ENR-201), another on Natural Resource Economics in Developing Countries (PED-267), and a seminar in Environmental Economics and Policy (ENR-551Y). In terms of outreach, the Kennedy School has been a major participant in national and international deliberations on the design and implementation of market-based strategies for environmental protection, including climate change, land protection, and air and water pollution.
Managing Public Infrastructure
In January 1998, faculty at the Kennedy School, under the leadership of Professor Jose Gomez-IbaÃ±ez and Henry Lee, inaugurated a new training program entitled Infrastructure in a Market Economy. This program provides training in the broad issues and strategic choices associated with the private provision and public regulation of infrastructure. It focuses on the economic and political advantages and disadvantages of private infrastructure, as well as the more technical issues that shape privatization strategies, such as the requirements for private finance of designing and implementing concession agreements and regulating market power.
Sessions in 1998 focused primarily on privatization in Latin America. One hundred twenty senior officials from throughout the region have participated in these two sessions. In 1999, the program was expanded to include officials from all five continents. Thus, today the program is truly global in focus. Much of the training relies heavily on case studies, and the Kennedy School team will have written more than 16 new cases on issues relating to privatization, regulation, and finance. These include cases in the areas of electricity reform focusing on the privatization of the distribution company in Rio de Janeiro; the development of ENRON''s Dabhol plant in India; the reorganization of the Philippines electricity sector; the financing of toll roads and power plants in Mexico, Australia, and Great Britain; and the privatization of water and sewerage systems in Columbia, Mexico, El Salvador, Slovakia, and Chile.
In spring 1999, the Kennedy School launched its first environmental economics executive training session, entitled "Economics and the Environment: A Course for the Non-Economist," which was led by Robert Stavins. Participants were taught to recognize the advantages and limitations of basic economic analytical tools such as benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis, became familiar with a variety of environmental benefit estimation techniques, and learned to ascertain when it is appropriate to use alternate policy instruments. Course and case materials were designed to help students understand how economic principles apply to a wide range of environmental issues, including water-quality protection, acid-rain control, abandoned hazardous waste sites, and global climate change.
Cary Coglianese, Associate Professor of Public Policy, continued his research on regulatory reform in the United States. Numerous efforts to reform environmental regulation have focused on the role of so-called stakeholders in the process of setting environmental policy. Coglianese has continued to study various kinds of collaborative processes, such as negotiated rule-making, Project XL, and the Common Sense Initiative. His research affirms the benefits from dialogue between government, industry, and environmental groups, but also reveals serious weaknesses in processes that would require consensus among diverse groups before government could make policy decisions. Coglianese''s research on negotiated rule-making, for example, has gained attention for showing that the negotiation process leads to more litigation than does the conventional regulatory process. He has recently written further on the problems that are introduced when agencies rely on consensus as the basis for policymaking.
Coglianese is also engaged in a study of the impact of economic analysis and judicial review on environmental, health, and safety agencies. Recent regulatory reform legislation has proposed the expanded use of economic analysis by regulatory agencies and greater oversight by the courts. While administrative law scholars and policy advocates claim that such requirements would ossify or paralyze the regulatory process, the actual effects of such requirements are harder to discern. Coglianese''s current findings show that federal agencies have not retreated from regulation in the face of additional oversight requirements and that the behavioral effects of regulatory reform legislation may be less dramatic than both opponents and proponents have claimed. In other work, Coglianese is focused on voluntary approaches to regulatory problems. He has drawn attention to the methodological issues involved in evaluating the impact of voluntary programs on environmental protection. He is also analyzing the impact of environmental management systems and multitiered regulatory systems on environmental and economic goals.
Based at Kennedy School of Government, the Harvard Electricity Policy Group (HEPG) provides a forum for the analysis and discussion of important policy issues related to the restructuring of the U.S. electricity industry. Its objectives are to address key problems related to the transition to a more competitive electricity market, to provide a forum for informed and open debate, and to provide a vehicle for contributing to the wider public policy agenda. Priority issues on HEPG''s agenda include the economics of electricity production and use; the evolution of the industry and its regulatory institutions; transition paths and strategies; and related public policy issues such as the environment and consumer protection. Membership in HEPG includes high-level representatives of utility companies and independent power producers, state and federal regulators, environmental and consumer advocates, and academics.
In this, its sixth year of existence, HEPG has held three plenary sessions. These day-and-a-half-long sessions addressed, among other topics, evaluation of the price spikes in electricity during the heat wave in the summer of 1998; the extent to which retail competition is working in those states that have adopted it; and default service (i.e., assigning an electricity supplier to customers who do not affirmatively choose one). The group also held two one-day special sessions. One focused on various options for forming regional institutions for electricity markets; the other explored the relationship between wholesale and retail transmission markets for electricity. In addition to holding meetings, HEPG staff engage in research and publish papers and articles on restructuring issues. Recent areas of focus have included transmission pricing, the evolution of regulatory agencies, and the role of state consumer advocates. HEPG staff keep abreast of the latest electricity-related research from around the world and maintain a large library of papers that are available to the public.
William Clark is the Harvey Brooks Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development. At Harvard, Clark serves as Vice Chairman of the University Committee on Environment, and is a member of the Executive Committee for the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs and of the Board of Tutors for the College''s concentration in Environmental Science and Public Policy.
Clark''s research focuses on the sources of long-term social learning to cope with the policy issues arising through the interactions of environment, development, and security concerns in international affairs. In particular, he has studies under way on the development of better assessment frameworks for use in the management of global environmental change and on the problems of monitoring and evaluating progress toward sustainable development.
Along with collaborators Nancy Dickson of BCSIA, Jill JÃ¤ger of the International Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program, and Josee van Eijndhoven of the Netherlands'' Utrecht University, Clark completed a multiyear comparative history of social responses to climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and acid rain. The resulting book, to be published by MIT Press in 2000, involves 40 authors in a coordinated effort to document how nine countries (including Japan, Germany, the former Soviet Union, and the United States), the European Union, and the family of international institutions interacted to move these issues of global environmental change from the scientist''s bench to the high table of international diplomacy. Support was provided by the MacArthur Foundation, IBM Foundation, and the National Science Foundation.
This was the third year of the Global Environmental Assessment Project, a collaborative project conducted under the auspices of the Harvard University Committee on the Environment. The goal of the project is to explore the role played by formal assessments in linking science to policy for issues of global environmental change. The project has focused on experience with climate change and tropospheric pollutants in North America, Europe, and India, with additional global looks at assessments on biosafety and desertification. Led by Clark and Nancy Dickson of BCSIA, the core steering group for this venture includes Sheila Jasanoff, John Holdren, and Ted Parson of BCSIA, Jim McCarthy and Dan Schrag of Harvard''s science faculties; Robert Keohane of Duke, and Jill JÃ¤ger, Executive Director of the International Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program in Bonn. Each year, the project recruits internationally to bring to the Center a half dozen predoctoral and postdoctoral fellows to study and conduct research with faculty. The year''s work is brought together in a week-long summer study of scholars and practitioners. Results of these studies are published each year and are available through the project''s Web page(http://environment.harvard.edu:80/HERO/wrapper/pageid=gea/geahome.html). Support is provided by the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institute for Global Environmental Change, NASA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Clark''s continuing research on Information Systems for Managing Global Environmental Change seeks to understand what kinds of information and decision systems can best support the use of integrated assessment in the management of environmental problems that are characterized by multiscale interactions. With research fellows David Cash and Suzanne Moser, Clark has focused on the assessment needs and practices of "subnational" (i.e., regional, local, sectoral) decisionmakers, and of scholars involved in the creation of "local" knowledge and know-how. The project''s empirical work has involved extensive field interviews in farming and coastal systems of the United States. The project is conducted in cooperation with the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University with support from the National Institute for Global Environmental Change.
In 1997, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy launched an effort to provide a periodic, succinct, and credible report on the health of the nation''s ecosystems. Clark chairs the committee responsible for designing and producing the first report. Housed and staffed at the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment in Washington, the report is meant to serve some of the functions provided by the nation''s system of macroeconomic indicators - that is, an authoritative, nonpartisan, quantitative base for sound policymaking and an informed dialogue on how well the country is doing at crucial management tasks. The Design Committee chaired by Clark is a multisectoral group with members from all levels of government, the private sector, the environmental community, and academia. A prototype report on The State of the Nation''s Ecosystems focused on forests, croplands, and coastal/marine systems is scheduled for release in the fall of 1999. Details and updates are available on the Heinz Center''s Web page (http://www.heinzctr.org/PROGRAMS/eco_report.htm).
For the past several years, Clark has served on the Board on Sustainable Development of the National Academy of Science''s National Research Council. In that capacity, he has cochaired the board''s efforts to conduct a strategic reexamination of the adequacy of the nation''s current science and technology research priorities for meeting the challenges of environmentally sustainable social and economic development. The board''s effort both reviews the challenges and opportunities for sustainable development and develops a normative approach to the question of what kind of development should be sustained. The report of the board, Our Common Voyage: A Transition towards Sustainability, will be released in the fall of 1999. Details and updates are available on the NAS Web page (http://www4.nas.edu/pd/bsd.nsf).
Clark continued as co-editor of Environment magazine, along with colleagues Robert Kates, Alan McGowan, and Timothy O''Riordan. The magazine, which appears ten times a year, serves as a forum for timely, authoritative, and readable treatments of major issues at the intersection of environment, development, and public policy.
Cary Coglianese, Associate Professor of Public Policy, specializes in administrative law and the politics of the regulatory process. Using empirical analysis, he studies how administrative procedures influence regulatory agencies. His work examines the processes by which regulatory agencies develop and implement policy; the effects that interest groups, legislators, courts, and the media have on regulatory decisionmaking; and, ultimately, the impacts these regulatory processes and decisions have on environmental and other social concerns. In the past year, he has presented his research at, among other places, meetings of the American Political Science Association, Law and Society Association, Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Greening of Industry Network, and the Association of American Law Schools.
Coglianese has conducted extensive research on the effectiveness of consensus-based approaches to environmental regulation. Although policymakers and scholars have long advocated consensus-based procedures, Coglianese''s research shows how such procedures can be counterproductive. For example, U.S. EPA regulations developed through the use of negotiated rule-making have resulted in more, not less, litigation over federal regulations. In stark contrast to a growing enthusiasm for policymaking based on consensus, Coglianese''s research calls attention to the limitations of consensus-building processes. In addition to failing to reduce conflict, consensus-based processes tend to focus on the most tractable
not necessarily the most important
issues. Processes organized around consensus are also more prone to result in solutions that reflect either the lowest common denominator or mere symbolic agreement. Coglianese''s analysis of consensus-building techniques, entitled "The Limit of Consensus," was recently published in Environment.
While consensus-building techniques seek to reform the regulatory process by expanding the role of bargaining between competing interest, other regulatory reform proposals would expand the role of economic and risk analysis in environmental policymaking. Various legislative proposals would also impose additional requirements for judicial review of environmental regulations. These various regulatory reform proposals come at a time when administrative law scholars have argued that procedural obstacles created by courts, the legislature, and the executive branch have ossified the regulatory process. Scholars widely believe that regulatory agencies have delayed or largely abandoned the rule-making process. In a study of trends in federal regulation, Coglianese tests the ossification thesis with data on federal rule-making over the last half century. He finds that the output of regulatory agencies has increased at a consistent rate over time, notwithstanding changes over time in analytical requirements and the standards of judicial review. His findings challenge the prevailing view that additional requirements for economic analysis or judicial review would create substantial obstacles for federal agencies to issue regulations.
Coglianese, who is also an affiliated scholar at the Harvard Law School, is a member of the Environmental Law Institute and the American Bar Association''s section on administrative law and regulatory practice. He has received the American Political Science Association''s Edward S. Corwin Award for his research on environmental litigation. At the Kennedy School, he directs the faculty''s Politics Research group and teaches courses on environmental policy, professional ethics, law and public policy, and administrative law.
William W. Hogan, Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Public Policy and Administration at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, is Research Director of the Harvard Electricity Policy Group (HEPG), which explores the issues involved in the transition to a more competitive electricity market. He serves as Director of Graduate Studies for the Ph.D. programs at the Kennedy School, and has been Chair of the Public Policy Program and Director of the Energy and Environmental Policy Center. He also serves as co-Director of the Harvard-Japan Project on Energy and the Environment and of the Repsol-Harvard Seminars on Energy Policy.
Hogan''s research interests focus on the intersection of energy economics and public policy and reflect the significant shift in energy policy. For several decades energy policymakers emphasized the primacy of government in achieving public purposes, with the role of markets not always valued. By the 1990s, however, the new emphasis in energy policy is on the primary role of markets, with governments developing institutions and rules that will support efficient competitive markets. Hogan''s research reflects this current focus
particularly in the rapidly restructuring electricity market where market forces and government policy are seeking to achieve efficient competitive markets. Rather than championing either government or the market as the exclusive path to making the restructured electricity system work effectively, Hogan focuses on how the two can best work together.
The HEPG, which Hogan co-founded in 1993, provides a forum for participants in this restructuring process
representatives from government, industry, academia, and consumers
as all seek to achieve the common good and their particular visions of the private good. The HEPG sponsors seminars and conferences (more than 30 to date), publishes papers, and distributes relevant material pro bono through its web site (ksgwww.harvard.edu/hepg).
Hogan has written and published widely on issues in this evolving electricity market, focusing in particular on network access and pricing issues, markets and market institutions, and reliability of the electricity grid. Among papers Hogan wrote during the past academic year are "Getting the Prices Right in PJM: Analysis and Summary: April 1998 through March 1999. The First Anniversary of Full Locational Pricing," updating an earlier analysis published in the Electricity Journal. The connection between prices and operating decisions often receives cursory treatment in the electricity restructuring process. A major purpose of electricity restructuring however, is to change the locus of decisions from engineers motivated by principles of technical efficiency to market participants motivated by prices and profits. Therefore it is important to "get prices right." In this analysis of the first year with a consistent market pricing system in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection, Hogan underscores this point and provides empirical heat to help dispel the confusion inherent in a central problem of electricity markets: pricing to allocate use of scarce transmission capacity.
Public policy development in the field of electricity restructuring emphasizes institutions for market operations in network systems. Numerous models have been discussed and formulated. Hogan''s paper "Restructuring the Electricity Market: Institutions for Network Systems" points to an integrated independent system operator, either on its own or within a larger transmission organization, with locational marginal pricing rules, as the model most likely to be successful in preserving reliability of the electricity system while supporting competitive markets with customer choice.
An interconnected electric transmission grid requires coordination of use. "Market Coordination of Transmission Loading Relief Across Multiple Regions," which Hogan coauthored with Michael D. Cadwalader, Scott M. Harvey, and Susan L. Pope, addresses approaches to market-oriented coordination of multiple regions in an electricity network. Early on, the North American Electric Reliability Council developed coordination mechanisms that included transmission loading relief to curtail or redispatch scheduled electricity transactions to keep use of the grid at its proper capacity. The approaches outlined in this paper build on that framework by including price information and trading among regions.
An independent system operator for an electricity market is responsible for reliability of the system, which means scheduling enough generating capacity so that there are sufficient reserves in case they are needed. In the context of day-ahead scheduling markets for electricity, questions arise as to the treatment of reliability constraints and their impact on prices. "Reliability, Scheduling Markets, and Electricity Pricing," also coauthored with Cadwalader, Harvey, and Pope, outlines a framework for determining prices when an independent system operator is coordinating market bids to meet anticipated reliability constraints. An earlier paper, "A Market Power Model for Electricity Networks" (Energy Journal, 1997) was given the award of "Best Paper of the Year" by that publication.
The Repsol-Harvard Seminars on Energy Policy have provided a forum for the discussion of energy policy issues across the entire spectrum of energy industries
oil, natural gas, and electricity
for an international audience. Cosponsored by Repsol, the recently privatized Spanish oil company, the seminars initially focused on oil and were directed at European and North American participants. After more than a decade, the seminars have broadened their focus to include perspectives on natural gas, electricity, and the environment, and are geared to an international audience. Participants now come from Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, as well as Europe and North America.
At the recent tenth anniversary seminar, held in Madrid in June 1999, Hogan reflected on the broad lessons for energy policy during the seminars'' discussions. His paper, "Defining the Decade: Energy Markets and Energy Policy," describes the efforts involved in, and lessons learned from, setting policy for energy markets
in energy security (oil); prices (oil); regulation and natural monopoly (natural gas and electricity); and in the environment, a concern that now affects all energy sectors.
During the past year, Hogan has spoken frequently on electricity restructuring and institution building at conferences and seminars. These have included events in Mexico, Japan, and Australia as well as in the United States, before groups that included the USAEE, IEEE, Edison Electric Institute, and the Aspen Institute Program on Energy, the Environment, and the Economy. He has testified on these issues before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Professor Hogan was a founder and serves on the editorial board of the Energy Journal; he is also on the editorial board on Energy Economics. He serves as a member of Advisory Council and Executive Board of the Gas Research Institute. He is a Director of Law and Economics Consulting Group.
Henry Lee, the Jaidah Family Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program, is a Lecturer in Public Policy and the cochair of the Kennedy School''s project in privatizing and regulating public infrastructure. Lee''s recent research has focused on four areas
climate change, electricity policy and air pollution, management of the national parks, and privatization of public infrastructure in developing countries.
Lee has been the principal investigator for a multiyear cooperative agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Among the projects supported by this grant is an effort to assess the comparative costs and benefits of designing an upstream versus a downstream tradable permit program for carbon. In addition, this study explores several of the key implementation issues that would have to be managed for a carbon permit program to be successful. The results were published in a paper entitled "Designing Domestic Carbon Trading Systems: Key Considerations." In addition, Lee has overseen research projects on international cooperation to reduce carbon and climate change policy in Russia.
In 1996, Lee and Nageen Derani of National Economics Research Associates published several papers on the impacts of electricity restructuring on the environment. Among the issues that they looked at were the potential of increased utilization of coal plants in the midwest and the subsequent effect on air pollution. Lee, in tandem with BCSIA Research Associate Shashi Verma, is now looking at the environmental and economic factors that will determine the choice between natural gas and coal for electricity generation in the Midwest. A paper summarizing the results will be complete by late fall.
Lee, along with Peter Zimmerman, Herman Leonard, Jay Walder and Wendy Vanasselt, completed a study on financing the national parks in 1998. The results of the research was published in a monograph entitled "National Park Bonds: A Patch or a Panacea." This work was a continuation of the research on the national parks that began seven years ago with the Vail Agenda.
Lee, along with Professor Tony Gomez-IbaÃ±ez, cochairs the Kennedy School''s executive training program on Infrastructure in a Market Economy. The program, given twice a year, has attracted more than 165 participants from around the world. In the context of this program, Lee has overseen the development of six new case studies. In addition, Lee has participated in abridged versions of this program in Brazil and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Lee and Gomez-IbaÃ±ez hosted a two-day workshop for faculty from 20 Latin American universities, the purpose of which was to structure a $2.8 million program to build a network of universities in the region to train infrastructure regulators.
Lee is a member of the Energy Modeling Forum, the Braintrust of the Coalition for Clean Air Policy, and the Advisory Committee to the New England Independent System Operator. He served on the review committee assessing the Pew Charitable Trust''s environmental programs and, with John Holdren and Steven Miller, co-directs BCSIA''s programs on energy and research development. Finally, he coordinated two Kennedy School workshops
the first on civilian nuclear power and electricity restructuring (with STPP''s Managing the Atom Project and the Harvard Electricity Policy Project) and the second on carbon sequestration and management in June.
Edward A. Parson is Associate Professor of Public Policy. Parson''s research interests lie in two related fields: environmental policy, particularly its international dimensions, and negotiations and conflict resolution. Parson''s continuing studies of the conduct and effects of scientific and technical assessment, including "integrated assessment," are funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and are conducted in conjunction with the National Science Foundation funded project on Global Environmental Assessment, which Parson jointly directs with Professor William Clark. Parson has recently completed a book examining the linked histories of science, domestic policy, and international negotiations concerned with stratospheric ozone. Other recent publications include an examination of policy implications of new technologies of carbon management, in Science (with D. W. Keith); a study of the Kyoto Protocol''s "Clean Development Mechanism," in Policy Sciences; and a major review article on integrated assessment models of global climate change, in Annual Review of Energy and the Environment (both with K. Fisher-Vanden). Forthcoming publications include a second article on carbon management, to appear in Scientific American (with D. W. Keith), and an edited book examining key current challenges and proposed innovations in environmental policy, to be published by Oxford University Press.
Parson holds degrees in Physics from the University of Toronto and in Management Science from the University of British Columbia and a Ph.D. in Public Policy from Harvard. He serves on the National Academy of Science Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, and on the National Assessment Synthesis Team of the first U.S. National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability. He has worked and consulted for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the Office of Technology Assessment of the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the United Nations Environment Program, the Commission of the European Communities, and Environment Canada.
Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, became the Faculty Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Program in 1997. In late 1997, he was named Chairman of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency''s Science Advisory Board Environmental Economics Advisory Committee. He represented Harvard at the November 1997 White House Symposium on Climate Change. Professor Stavins'' research has focused on diverse aspects of environmental economics and policy, including examinations of policy instrument choice under uncertainty; competitiveness effects of regulation; design and implementation of market-based policy instruments; diffusion of pollution-control technologies; and the depletion of forested wetlands.
Stavins has been the principal investigator for an ongoing project on Environmental Technology Innovation, funded by a $460,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy for the past three years. The research team, comprised of Stavins, Professor Adam Jaffe, of Brandeis University, and Dr. Richard Newell, of Resources for the Future, has been examining econometrically the factors affecting the nature, rate, and direction of innovation in energy-efficiency technologies. An article appeared in the summer edition of the Quarterly Journal of Economics by Richard Newell, Adam Jaffe, and Robert Stavins, titled "The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change." Other manuscripts are being prepared. The team received a new three-year $500,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy for the next phase of the project, which will expand this work to cover invention, innovation, and diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies.
Stavins also conducted research on the effect of cost heterogeneity on the performance of market-based instruments. The purpose of this research is to develop a method for using the limited information available during the early stages of policy development to estimate the potential gains from using economic incentives relative to other approaches to achieving environmental protection. By representing parameters of the abatement cost function as a parametric distribution of values across sources, it is possible to simulate and describe how the nature of this distribution affects potential efficiency gains. Professor Stavins conducts this project jointly with Dr. Richard Newell of Resources for the Future. A preliminary paper was presented at the World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists in Venice, Italy, in June 1998.
In a major ongoing research endeavor, Stavins has explored the costs of carbon sequestration through induced land-use changes, using econometric methods. An initial paper, "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," will be published in 1999 in the American Economic Review. An additional paper was coauthored with Richard Newell of Resources for the Future, "Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Cost of Carbon sequestration." In a new project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Stavins, together with ENRP Research Associate Ruben Lubowski and Professor Andrew Plantinga of the University of Maine, are developing an econometric analysis of carbon sequestration costs across the United States.
In an effort funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Professor Stavins and Dr. Robert Hahn of the American Enterprise Institute have begun to examine the major issues that need to be addressed regarding the design of an international permit trading system at the Fourth Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention of Climate Change, in Buenos Aires, in November 1998. They presented a preliminary paper at an August workshop in Snowmass, Colorado, held under the auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which Professor Stavins co-organized with Professor William Nordhaus of Yale University. The final version of the paper, "What Has Kyoto Wrought? The Real Architecture of International Tradeable Permit Markets," was presented by Stavins at the tenth session of the Subsidiary Bodies of the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, in Bonn, Germany, in June 1999.
A joint project on the positive analysis of environmental policy instrument choice, with Professor Richard Revesz of New York University Law School and Nathaniel Keohane, a Ph.D. student in Political Economy and Government at Harvard, Stavins examines the forces that have affected the choices of policy instruments over the past 25 years. Most recently, the research team completed a paper, "The Choice of Regulatory Instruments in Environmental Policy," which appeared in the Harvard Environmental Law Review.
Stavins'' project on Lessons Learned from the SO2 Allowance Trading Program terminated in 1998. In an article that appeared this summer in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Professor Stavins examines the generic significance of what is unquestionably the most important application ever attempted of a market-based approach to environmental protection.
In his work on the benefits of environmental regulation, Professor Stavins has developed a new, revealed-preference (econometric) approach to estimate the value of an environmental amenity. The approach draws on the derived demand for a privately traded option to utilize a freely available public good, and the application is to recreational fishing licenses across the United States.
On a topic like the environment, communication among scholars from different disciplines in the natural and social sciences is both important and difficult. Professor Don Fullerton, of the University of Texas (Austin) and Professor Stavins seek to clarify some misunderstandings and thus to improve interdisciplinary communication. Their method is to posit a series of prevalent "myths" regarding how economists think about the natural environment, explain how each myth might have originated, and thus explain how economists really do think about the natural environment. Their paper "How Economists See the Environment" appeared in Nature in October 1998.
Professor Stavins is editing the fourth edition of the classic Norton book of readings on Economics and the Environment; publication is expected in 1999. In addition, Paul Portney, President of Resources for the Future, and Professor Stavins are coediting the new edition of Policies for Environmental Protection, which includes a chapter written by Stavins that examines U.S. experience with market-based instruments for environmental protection, broadly defined. Publication by Resources for the Future is anticipated in early 2000. Also, Stavins is writing a chapter for the new Handbook of Environmental Economics on "Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments." Finally, Stavins is editing a new book for Ashgate on Comparative Analysis of Environmental Policy Instruments scheduled to be published in 2000.
Professor Stavins has continued to serve as a member of the Board of Directors of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists; a member of the U.S. EPA''s Subcommittee on Energy, Clean Air, and Climate Change of the Clean Air Act Advisory Committee, as well as its Reducing Risk Project Steering Committee of the Science Advisory Board; lead author of Working Group III of both the Second and Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Environment Program and World Meteorological Organization; University Fellow, Resources for the Future; member of the Editorial Board of Resource and Energy Economics; Editorial Council member of the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management; Contributing Editor, Environment; member of the Advisory Board, Environmental Economics Abstracts; member of the Editorial Board of Economic Issues; and member of the Advisory Board of Environmental Law and Policy Abstracts. In addition, Stavins has accepted a position as a U.S. representative on the Track-II Project of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Professor Stavins directed, a bipartisan effort cochaired by former Senator Timothy Wirth (D-Colo.) and the late Senator John Heinz (R. Penn.), to develop innovative approaches to environmental and resource problems. He continues to work closely with public officials on matters of national and international environmental policy. He has been a consultant to the National Academy of Sciences, several administrations, members of congress, environmental advocacy groups, the World Bank, the United Nations, the U.S. Agency for International Development, state and national governments, and private foundations and firms.
Charles H.W. Foster, Adjunct Research Associate and Lecturer, has been with ENRP (and its predecessor EEPC) for thirteen years, after serving as Dean of the Yale School of Forestry, Massachusetts Environmental Cabinet Secretary, Nature Conservancy president and chief executive officer of several foundations. Dr. Foster has offered courses in water resources, wetlands, biosphere reserve management, forestry, parks, bioregionalism and philanthropy. His course , "Topics in Environmental Policy," offers students the chance to work on a timely policy issue, resulting in dissemination of a working paper. In 1998-99, his class generated the research report, "Thinking in Forest Time: A Strategy for the Massachusetts Forest," which was inspired by the 1998 book he coauthored, Stepping Back to Look Forward, the first comprehensive history of forests and forestry ever compiled for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. He serves as the Kennedy School''s representative to the joint program in renewable resource policy between ENRP and the Harvard Forest. In 1999, he inaugurated a major project in environmental regionalism, starting with a replication of the 1934-35 National Resources Board/Committee inquiry of prominent regionalists in the US and Canada.
Alexander Golub''s research largely focuses on the analysis of Russian supply on the global carbon market. Among other Annex B countries, Russia has the most significant potential as the seller of assigned amounts units (AAU). More detailed analysis was conducted for the forest sector. The Russian supply could be increased dramatically by additional reforestation and afforestation measures on the land currently not covered by forests including marginal agricultural lands. The goal of the study was economic analysis of AAU production in Kyoto forests and highlighting the main limitations created by Article 3 of Kyoto Protocol (The study has been supported by Bullard Foundation and Harvard Forest). The formal procedure to estimate the AAU supply from forest sector has been elaborated and applied for Russia. The same model was applied to construct supply function Kazakstan. It could be used for any other boreal forests as well. The paper "Estimation of the Forest Project Efficiency for Carbon Sequestration in Russia" has been presented. The results were presented at the Workshop "Estimating the Costs of Biological Carbon Sequestration" at Harvard University June 14 and at the seminar in Harvard Forest.
William Haney, Research Fellow, ENRP, is one of the nation''s leading young environmental business entrepreneurs. Over the past decade, he has started over five new environmental technological firms. He serves on the boards of the World Resources Institute and the World Wildlife Fund and he actively advised various federal agencies on technology policy. While in residence at ENRP in 1998-99, he focused on sustainable development and biodiversity. In the Fall, he organized and hosted a widely popular session with John Adams, Cofounder and Executive Director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, on "Kyoto, Buenos Aires and Beyond: A Pragmatist''s View of How Washington Politics Affects Global Environmental Issues."
Alastair Iles is a Global Environmental Assessment Research Assistant. He is a doctoral student at Harvard University, working in the field of environmental policy and science. Formerly, he was an environmental lawyer at Australia''s largest law firm, before completing a master of law degree at Harvard University. His research focuses on "policy learning" and adaptive strategies in complex environmental management regimes, exploring three case studies in Australia, the European Union, and the United States. He also is working on integrating bottom-up inputs into environmental decisionmaking via decision analysis and support perspectives, and on analyzing the development and practice of institutions for environmental decisionmaking. He was awarded a Mitchell Young Scholar Prize for sustainable development research and was a Young Scientist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.
Nathaniel Keohane''s general area of research is environmental economics and political economy
in particular, analyzing the issue of "policy instrument choice" from both positive (political economy) and normative (economic theory) perspectives. Policy instrument choice refers to the government''s decision over how to regulate environmental externalities such as pollution; examples of "policy instruments" include command-and-control standards on emissions, technological requirements, tradeable emissions permits, and emissions taxes. A current project looks at the dynamic dimension of policy instrument choice: how the choice of instrument is likely to affect the innovation and diffusion of new pollution-control technologies.
Ruben Lubowski has been working together with Professor Robert Stavins (Harvard) and Andrew Plantinga (University of Maine) on an econometric analysis of land use changes in the United States. The goal is to estimate the marginal costs of carbon sequestration through forestry activities as a strategy to mitigate global warming. Lubowski has developed a theoretical model of landowner decision-making driving land-use changes which accounts for multiple land-use alternatives and conditions of uncertainty in a dynamic setting. The econometric analysis based on this model will employ plot-level land-use data to estimate a Markov transition matrix of land-use change probabilities. These probabilities will enable the estimation of the marginal costs of inducing forest area changes and the resulting levels of carbon sequestration. Ruben has largely completed the selection of variables and assembly of data to econometrically estimate the parameters of the land-use model. Drawing on federal, state, and local government agencies, Professor Stavins, Plantinga, and Lubowski have put together a database of historical economic and land-use information covering all forty-eight contiguous US states. Immediate tasks include filling the remaining data gaps, pursuing the econometric estimation, and completing a review paper discussing the key theoretical and empirical issues in modeling land-use changes with plot-level data.
Carlos Rufin researched electricity restructuring processes in four Latin American countries and wrote a paper contrasting the experiences of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil and Chile. Carlos'' research will be published by ENRP as a working paper. He has also presented his results at Harvard''s David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies and will be presenting it at the Latin American Studies Association''s biennial meeting next March in Miami. Other research pursued by Carlos during this period concerned electricity restructuring as well as part of his doctoral dissertation, and included a theoretical political economy model of restructuring outcomes and an econometric study of restructuring throughout the world.
Shashi Vermi completed a paper analyzing the effectiveness of institutions in Norway''s competitive electricity markets. Working with Catherine Wolfram from Harvard''s Economics Department and Tor Arnt Johnsen of Statistics Norway, he specifically investigated the effectiveness of transmission pricing and permitting consumers to directly participate in the market. Shashi also made progress on his thesis, on the Design and Structure of Competitive Markets for Hydroelectric Systems. Finally, with Henry Lee, Shashi completed a paper on the effect of pollution controls on coal plants in the Midwest. The paper argued that the quantum of carbon penalties required to displace coal plants is not as large as some previous studies have sought to establish.
William Dietrich worked with Bill Clark on the National Research Council''s Board on Sustainable Development study on science and technology priorities for sustainable development. He researched the use of the critical loads concept in acid rain.
Kristen Eddy redesigned the web sites for the Global Environmental Assessment Project and the Environment and Natural Resources Program. This new ENRP site aims to inform students about environmental courses, research and outreach projects with which ENRP''s faculty, staff, and fellows are involved. Eddy also created two smaller web sites: one for the annual workshop of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists and one to promote discussion and review of the forthcoming book of the Social Learning Group.
Peter Haas continued his research on the evolution of multilateral environmental governance. He has recently had several works accepted for publication including: "Choosing to Comply," in Dinah Shelton, ed., Compliance with Soft Law (Oxford University Press, "International Institutions and Social Learning in the Management of Global Environmental Risks," Policy Studies Journal (2000); and "Epistemic Communities," for Routledge''s Encyclopedia of International Political Economy (forthcoming). He also gave presentations at Nuffield College, Oxford University, and Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Cheryl Holdren continued her research on agricultural pest control, pesticide policies, and the ecological consequences of chemicals and pesticides.
Robert Kates continued to work with Bill Clark as cochairs of a National Research Council study on science and technology priorities for sustainable development. The study report, Our Common Journey: A Transition toward Sustainability attempts to reconceptualize the challenge of sustainable development as a problem of social learning in harnessing scientific research, global monitoring, and technological development to long run political goals. It analyzes the major trends and transitions with which the transition to sustainability will have to cope; identifies major threats and opportunities the journey is likely to encounter; and recommends specific research and action initiatives for the federal government, private sector and international community. The report will be released in November 1999.
Gerry Kaye completed her work as an advisor to the steering committee of Harvard College''s Environmental Science and Public Policy Archive. The steering committee is cochaired by Bill Clark and Jim McCarthy, Professor of Biological Oceanography and Master of Pforzheimer House.
Kai Lee spent the year on sabbatical from Williams College as Senior Fellow of the World Wildlife Fund US. At World Wildlife he helped to develop an ecoregion-based conservation strategy for that international environmental group. He served on the National Research Council''s Board on Sustainable Development, whose report, Our Common Journey, will be published by National Academy Press in November 1999. He continues to teach and conduct research on the relationship between technological change and democratic governance.
William Meyer continues work on the history of environmental change begun in The Earth as Transformed by Human Action (Cambridge Univ. Press) a book he coedited with Bill Clark and others. He also began collaborative work with Charles Foster, ENRP Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy. The two are offering a jointly taught course at the KSG on "Topics in Environmental Policy, ENR 522" in the fall of 1999.
Vicki Norberg-Bohm joined the STPP Program as the Director of the Energy Technology Innovation Project, effective September 1, 1999. During the 1998-99 academic year, she began a DOE sponsored research project on Technology Innovation for Global Change, with Professors John Holdren and William Clark. Norberg-Bohm completed a multi-year research program at MIT on Environmental Technology Policy, with an emphasis on policy for energy technology innovation. This work lays the groundwork for the Technology Innovation for Global Change Project. Norberg-Bohm presented results from this research at the Greening of Industry Network Conference and at an international conference on "Innovation-Oriented Environmental Regulation: Theoretical Approaches Empirical Analysis" sponsored by the European Commission and the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany.
Frank Biermann is a GEA Postdoctoral fellow and research scientist at the Secretariat of the German Advisory Council on Global Change in Bremerhaven, Germany. For his GEA research, he conducted two studies on international environmental information institutions in the North-South context. He was a Visiting Scholar at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Most of his previous research addressed global environmental policies between industrialized and developing countries. He has published three books on marine pollution (1994), on international environmental law (1995), and on North-South relations in international environmental affairs (1998), coedited one volume on sustainable development (1997) and published several articles in German and international journals and edited volumes. He taught environmental policy at the Free University of Berlin, at Stanford University (Berlin Study Center), and at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He holds Master''s Degrees in Political Science (1993, Berlin), in Law (1994, Aberdeen), and a Ph.D. summa cum laude from the Free University of Berlin (1997). He received scholarships from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation''s Talented Students Program at the Free University of Berlin, and twice from the German Academic Exchange Service. His doctoral thesis won the Joachim Tiburtius Prize 1998, awarded by the State of Berlin for the best dissertation at Berlin universities. In 1996, he became a Junior Fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. He was selected by the German UNESCO Commission as representative for Germany to the International Forum of Young Scientists during the 1999 UNESCO World Science Conference.
David Cash is a Global Environmental Assessment Predoctoral Fellow and a doctoral candidate in Public Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University studying the role of science in environmental policy. Since arriving at the Kennedy School, this research interest has taken three different but complementary paths. One focus of his research has been on the role of science and politics in domestic environmental decision making, analyzing primarily the Endangered Species Act. The second focus has explored the role of scientific assessments in the negotiation and development of international environmental treaties, such as the climate change and biodiversity conventions. Finally, as part of the GEA project, he has been focusing on how scientific assessment of global environmental risks are linked to local decision making and local environmental risk management
with specific interest in how information and decision- making systems can best support the management of cross-scale environmental risks.
Aarti Gupta is a Global Environmental Assessment Predoctoral Fellow. She is also a Ph.D. candidate at the Department of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University. Her dissertation examines the role of science in global environmental decisionmaking, with a focus on transnational regulation of genetic engineering. Prior to beginning the doctoral program, Gupta served as a consultant to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in New York, where she participated in multilateral forest policy negotiations as a UNDP representative. She has also worked on global forest policy issues for the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and covered many international environmental negotiations relating to biodiversity and genetic resources as a writer for the Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Gupta received a Masters Degree in Political Science (with a focus on international relations) from the University of Chicago, and a Bachelors Degree in Economics and Political Science from Brandeis University. Her GEA research focuses on how the internationally negotiated conception of "biosafety" is received and reshaped.
Wolfgang Jung is a Global Environmental Assessment Research Predoctoral Fellow. He received his Masters of Science in Physics from the University of Heidelberg/Germany in 1993. His thesis dealt with the chemical analysis of ice cores from the Alpine region aiming at the reconstruction of the European air pollution history. In the same year he entered the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy in Wuppertal/Germany. The Wuppertal Institute is an interdisciplinary think tank striving to produce policy relevant knowledge on environmental issues. Jung was involved in several projects on climate policy and sustainable development issues. Inspired by the political controversies triggered by environmental assessments he decided to work on science-policy interactions more basically. He is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Free University of Berlin.
David Levy is a Global Environmental Assessment Faculty Fellow and Associate Professor of Management at the University of Massachusetts, Boston. His research examines the role of the private sector in the development of international environmental regimes. With a grant from the Consortium on Environmental Challenges at MIT, he is investigating the political and strategic responses of the automobile industry to climate change. He is an advisor in the development of the Massachusetts Climate Change Action Plan.
Susanne Moser was a Global Environmental Assessment Postdoctoral Fellow. She studied physical geography and the earth sciences at the University of Trier, Germany before she came to Clark University in Worcester, MA, where she continued her work in Human Geography, focusing on hazards and global change studies. She received her Ph.D. in Geography from Clark in 1997. Her dissertation, Mapping the Territory of Uncertainty and Ignorance: Broadening Current Assessment and Policy Approaches to Sea-Level Rise, focused on the uncertainties and unknowns in the human dimensions of global change impacts and societal responses. It examined both the level of understanding and integration of these human dimensions in scientific assessments and the incorporation of uncertainties into state-level policy responses in Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina. During her year with the GEA project, Moser studied the effectiveness of cross-scale information flow and the integration of global change (assessment) information in national to local decision-making. Her work, developed in tandem with David Cash, focused again on coastal zone management in Maine and Hawai''i and is summarized in the GEA Working Paper entitled "Talk Globally, Walk Locally: The Cross-Scale Influence of Global Change Information on Coastal Zone Management in Maine and Hawaii." She collaborated on the "Sustainable Coasts" project of the Heinz Center in Washington, DC that aims at affecting national policies regarding coastal floodplain and erosion management.
Anthony Patt is a Global Environmental Assessment Predoctoral Fellow and a Ph.D. candidate in Public Policy at Harvard University. His research focuses on how human perception of risk influences the ways that policymakers both design and interpret environmental assessment. In his first GEA paper, he examined how biases in the interpretation of low probabilities lead in some types of assessment to the systematic lack of discussion about low probability events published as "Extreme Outcomes" in Risk, Decision, and Policy (1999). His second GEA paper examined the process by which policymakers in Europe chose to adopt ecological change, rather than health risk, as the framework for analyzing and regulating transboundary air pollution, published as "Separating Analysis from Politics" in Policy Studies Review (1999). In 1998-99 he followed two lines of research. He participated in paleo-climatic research into the El NiÃ±o phenomenon, as a prerequisite to a better understanding of the nature of scientific claims about this subject. He also researched theoretically and experimentally how economic framings of costs, benefits, and the status quo influence our everyday attitudes toward environmental change.
Sandra Rothenberg is a Global Environmental Assessment Postdoctoral Fellow and a Research Assistant for the MIT Consortium on Environmental Challenges. She completed her Ph.D. in the organizational studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology''s Sloan School of Management. Prior to entering the doctoral program, she worked as a research associate at the MIT Technology, Business and Environment Program, the Office of Technology Assessment and the MIT International Motor Vehicle Program. Her research interests include firm management of environmental issues, with a focus on the automobile industry. She has published in Environmental Quality Management, California Management Review, Technology Studies, and Corporate Environmental Strategy.
Shardul Agrawala continued his research on the role played by expert advisory panels within the global climate change regime. He published "Early Science Policy Interactions in the Global Climate Regime: Lessons from the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases" in Global Environmental Change (1999). Agrawala coauthored (with Steinar Andersen at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway) a paper entitled "Indispensability and Indefensibility: The United States in the Climate Treaty Negotiations" in Global Governance (1999). An expanded version of this paper will appear as a book chapter in Arild Underdal (ed.) Modeling International Negotiations (2000). Shardul also made presentations at Princeton University, Columbia University and the 1998 annual meeting of the Association of Public Policy Analysis and Management.
Pascal Bader completed his dissertation entitled, European Climate Policy with Tradable Emission Permits. He gave presentations at the University of TÃ¼bingen and the Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community at the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies in Japan.
Barbara Connolly continued to focus on the institutional design of international cooperative agreements, particularly related to the environment. She advised Global Environmental Assessment fellows and played an active role in the Global Environmental Assessment Project''s Institutional Assessment of Politics Working Group where Robert Keohane, Ron Mitchell and she led research into the conditions under which the information produced by international institutions influence international policy-making.
Ellis Cowling continued his involvement with the Global Environment Assessment Project by advising fellows Terry Keating and Alex Farrell on multi-stakeholder environmental assessments using the Ozone Transport Assessment Group as a case study.
William Easterling worked to explain cross-scale relationships between drivers of land use at local and regional scales. Such information is argued to be critical in estimating future land use changes in response to climate change.
Alex Farrell continued his research on air pollution and the use of science in the formation of environmental policy in multi-jurisdictional contexts. He has a forthcoming paper on "Historical Patterns in the Science, Engineering and Policy of Motor Vehicle Emissions" in Transport Research and has recently completed a paper for submission to Environmental Science & Technology, "Transboundary Environmental Assessment: Lessons from the Ozone Transport Assessment Group." Alex has given presentations at the American Political Science Association, Columbia University, the Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, the Transportation Research Board, and the American Association for Energy Economics.
Leen Hordijk completed the report entitled, Climate OptiOns for the Long term (COOL). COOL is an integrated assessment project which explores long term options for climate change policy in the Netherlands. Hordijk is Director of the Wageningen Institute for Environment and Climate Research in the Netherlands. He continues his collaboration with the Global Environmental Assessment''s Assessment Design Working Group.
Jill JÃ¤ger took over as Executive Director of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change in Bonn. In June 1999 she convened the Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community in Japan. She was a co-organizer of the First Workshop of the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment held in Amsterdam where she presented a keynote talk on "Challenges and Opportunities for Interacting with Policy from a Scientific Perspective" (March 1998, Amsterdam, NL) that has subsequently been published in Environmental Modeling and Assessment (1998). She continued to play an active role as a core GEA faculty member by advising GEA fellows and collaborating with the Assessment Design Working Group.
Milind Kandlikar has continued to work on science-policy for the global environment at Carnegie Mellon University''s Center for the Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change. His current projects include a comprehensive synthesis of urban air pollution in India, comparative studies of energy use in China and India, and expert judgment for detection and attribution of climate change. His recent publications (1999) include articles in Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change and the Journal of Aerosol Science.
Terry Keating completed his GEA research on "Problem Framing and Model Formulation: The Regionality of Tropospheric Ozone." He continued his work on the role of predictive modeling and impact analyses in the development of tropospheric ozone and acid rain policies in North America and Europe while working at U.S. EPA''s Office of Policy Analysis and Review within the Office of Air and Radiation as an AAAS Environmental Science and Engineering Fellow.
Robert Keohane continued to be a core faculty member in the Global Environmental Assessment Project. He led the Project''s Institutional Assessment of Politics Working Group where Ron Mitchell, Barbara Connolly studied the conditions under which the information produced by international institutions influence international policy-making. He published "Power and Interdependence in the Information Age" with co-author Joseph Nye in Foreign Affairs (1998).
Jonathan Krueger continued his Ph.D. research on the use of trade restrictions in multilateral environmental agreements. He published International Trade and the Basel Convention (RIIA/Earthscan 1999) and "Trade Restrictions and the Montreal Protocol," in Diana Tussie, ed., Environmental Issues in North-South Trade Negotiations (Macmillan Press 1999) and "What''s to Become of Trade in Hazardous Wastes? The Basel Convention One Decade Later," Environment (1999).
Marc Levy began working at CIESIN, the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, at Columbia University, where he heads the Science Applications unit and serves as Lead Project Scientist for the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. He taught international environmental policy at Columbia''s Center for Environmental Research and Conservation. He coauthored a number of book chapters in volumes appearing over 1999-2000, on topics including the effectiveness of UNEP, causal analysis of international environmental regimes, and goal-setting as a social learning process. He continues to serve on the State Failure Task Force, and was a coauthor of its Phase II report which appeared in 1999.Marybeth Long completed her Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Her thesis, Grains of Truth: Science and the Evolution of International Desertification Policymakingexamined the science and international politics of desertification throughout the twentieth century. She presented selections of this work in seminars at MIT and Harvard and has had a paper accepted at the upcoming annual meeting of the Society for the Social Studies of Science.
Ronald Mitchell continued to play an active role in the Global Environmental Assessment Project by advising fellows and collaborating with the Institutional Politics of Assessment Working Group. He, along with Robert Keohane and Barbara Connolly, led research into the conditions under which the information produced by international institutions influences international policy-making. During 1998-1999, Mitchell received tenure in the Department of Political Science at the University of Oregon. His current research focuses on assessing the factors that influence whether and when the different mechanisms used to implement international treaties will be effective. Recent publications include an article on the influence of interests, science, and morality in the regulation of whaling in Global Governance, and chapters in volumes edited by Oran Young, J. Samuel Barkin and George E. Shambaugh, and Karen Litfin.
Colin Polsky continued to work on his dissertation at the Geography Department at Pennsylvania State University. His dissertation is, A Hierarchical Assessment of Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US Great Plains. He worked on analyzing greenhouse gas emission inventories at multiple spatial scales in the United States and is a contributing author in Global Change in Local Places, forthcoming by Cambridge University Press.
Walter Rosenbaum worked as a consultant to the Executive Director of the South Florida Environmental Restoration Project, an intergovernmental project to restore the ecological viability of the Everglades. He worked to broaden the scope and quality of their public involvement activities. He is organizing a joint Dutch-U.S conference about "Cross-Scale Problems in Implementing Sustainable Development," scheduled for February 2000.
Paul Samson completed an anthology entitled, The Biosphere and the Noosphere Reader: Global Environment, Society and Change (Routledge 1999). He is a member of the Canadian negotiating team on climate change and a policy advisor on environmental affairs with the Canadian government.
Pascal Bader, "Targets and Strategies: The Role of Economic Assessments in European Climate Policy," No. 98-14 (September 1998)
Liliana Botcheva, "Doing Is Believing: Participation and Use of Economic Assessments in the Approximation of EU Environmental Legislation in Eastern Europe," No. 98-13 (September 1998)David Cash, "Assessing and Addressing Cross-Scale Environmental Risks: Information and Decision Systems for the Management of the High Plains Aquifer," No. 98-17 (September 1998)
Alex Farrell and Terry J. Keating, "Multi-Jurisdictional Air Pollution Assessment: A Comparison of the Eastern United States and Western Europe," No. 98-12 (September 1998)
Karen Fisher-Vanden, "Technological Diffusion in China''s Iron and Steel Industry." No. 98-26 (December 1998)
Wendy E. Franz, "Science, Skeptics, and Non-State Actors in the Greenhouse," No. 98-18 (September 1998)
Robert W. Hahn, "The Impact of Economics on Environmental Policy,." No. 99-01 (January 1999)
Robert W. Hahn and Robert N. Stavins, "What Has Kyoto Wrought? The Real Architecture of International Tradeable Permit Markets,." No. 99-02 (February 1999)
Alastair Iles, "The Evolution of Acidification Impact Frames in Europe: Interactions Between Regional and National Assessment of Forest Conditions," 98-19 (September 1998) Terry J. Keating and Alex Farrell, "Problem Framing and Model Formulation: The Regionality of Tropospheric Ozone in the U.S. and Europe," No. 98-11 (September 1998)
Henry Lee, "Designing Domestic Carbon Trading Systems: Key Considerations," No. 98-21 (October 1998)
Clark Miller, "Extending Assessment Communities to Developing Countries," No. 98-15 (September 1998)
Susanne Moser, "Talk Globally, Walk Locally: The Cross-Scale Influence of Global Change Information on Coastal Zone Management in Maine and Hawaii," No. 98-16 (September 1998)V. Norberg-Bohm, "Creating Incentives for Environmentally Enhancing Technological Change: Lessons from 30 Years of the U.S. Energy Technology Policy," in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming)
V. Norberg, Bohm, "Technology Commercialization and Environmental Regulation: Lessons from the U.S. Energy Sector" in Innovation-Oriented Environmental Regulation: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Analysis, eds. in Jens Hemmelskamp, Klaus Rennings, and Fabio Leone (Heidelberg: ZEW Economic Studies, Physica-Verlag (Springer), in press).
Norberg-Bohm, V., "Stimulating ''Green'' Technological Innovation: An Analysis of Alternative Policy Mechanisms," Policy Sciences 32 (1999): 13-38.
Thomas Parris and Charles Zracket and William Clark, "Usable Knowledge for Managing Responses to Global Climate Change: Recommendations to Promote Collaborative Assessments and Information Systems," No. 98-27 (September 1998)Anthony Patt, "Analytic Frameworks and Politics: The Case of Acid Rain in Europe," No. 98-20 (September 1998)
Paul Samson, "Non-State Actors and Environmental Assessment: A Look at Acid Rain and Global Climate Change," No. 98-10 (September 1998) Robert N. Stavins and Richard Newell, "Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration," No. 98-23 (November 1998)
Robert Stavins and Alexander Pfaff, "Readings in the Field of Natural Resource and Environmental Economics," June 1999
Stacy D. VanDeveer, "European Politics with a Scientific Face: Transition Countries, International Environmental Assessment, and Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution," No. 98-09 (September 1998)
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