Graham Allison: US-Russian Relations at Lowest Point Since Cold War

Press Release

March 30, 2001

Author: Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

One Expert's Opinion: US-Russian Relations at Lowest Point Since the Cold War, Says Graham Allison March 30, 2001 -- The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 signaled the end of the Cold War, or did it? The Bush administration recently ordered the expulsion of 50 Russian diplomats believed to be spies from Washington. In a response reminiscent of the Cold War, Russia retaliated in kind. Russia is expanding sale of arms to Iran and nuclear power plant fuel supplies to India. President Bush has indicated he will press forward with a US national missile defense system even at the risk of violating the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty signed with the Soviet Union. Graham Allison, Director of the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans and coordinated Department of Defense strategy and policy towards Russia, Ukraine, and the other states of the former Soviet Union. Q: Do you see evidence of a return to Cold War rhetoric or tactics in the US and Russia? Allison: Both sides have certainly hyped the rhetoric recently. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Ivanov delivered a sharp critique of US policy at a security meeting in Germany, and US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld responded in kind, calling Russia an "active proliferator." Such hyperbole does not help the already tense relationship. Combined with the tit-for-tat spy expulsions, the recent meeting of a State Department official with a Chechen representative, and other factors, the US-Russian relationship seems to be at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War. Q: Given the early signals, how significantly will Bush’s Russia policy differ from Clinton’s? Allison: The Bush administration has clearly indicated that it will take a tougher line on Russia -- which it calls "realism." The new administration has signaled that it will move ahead on missile defense regardless of Moscow’s objections, it will continue NATO’s expansion, it has deferred a summit meeting, and it has suggested downgrading Russia’s status as a world power. In addition, it has labeled Russia a damaging proliferator of weapons and has charged it with squandering Western aid. In fact, the administration opposes more aid to Russia and has called for cuts in American funds used to help Russia dismantle its nuclear weapons. Q: What effect will Russia’s sale of ballistic missile technology and nuclear technology to Iran have on US-Russia relations? Allison: The US strongly opposes the sale of Russian arms to Iran. But it is in Russia’s own interest to prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, Iraq, North Korea and others in Asia. The US and Russia should together combat proliferation by securing Russia’s own nuclear arsenal and weapons-useable materials, by jointly policing exports of technologies, and by punishing illegal activities by rogue enterprises. Increased dialogue and cooperation on these issues is more important than ever. Q: Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled his eagerness to engage the West. Has his stance changed with the new administration? Allison: Despite the seeming return to Cold War tensions, both presidents have taken pains to underscore that their countries are not adversaries. As President Bush noted recently, "Russia is not an enemy. They may be a threat, if they decide to be, but they’re not the enemy." Both Putin and Bush insist that the overall relationship is positive and that areas for collaboration exist. It is worth noting as well that Putin has aggressively courted the Europeans and that European-Russian relations are improving, as US-Russian relations become more strained.

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