Graham Allison: 100 Horribles: Contemplating al-Qaeda?s next move
Press Release
September 27, 2001
Author: Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
Graham Allison: 100 Horribles: Contemplating al-Qaeda?s next move
100 Horribles Contemplating al-Qaeda''s next move By Graham T. Allison SPECIAL TO MSNBC.COM CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Sept. 27 -- President George W. Bush''s call to arms was resounding and resolute. He rightly warned that war against bin Laden, al-Qaeda, and their Taliban hosts will be "unlike any other we have ever seen." As the Pentagon now prepares to strike a first blow in this long campaign, Americans must become realistic --super-realistic --about the fact that we face "a thinking enemy," in Secretary Colin Powell''s phrase. A 19TH-CENTURY German general staff maxim warned: beware of playing chess only one move at a time. Having seen the imagination and sophistication of Tuesday''s terrorist attackers, it would be foolhardy to expect that our adversary has not taken this maxim to heart. In this war President Bush pledged to apply "every resource at our command." Bin Laden and al-Qaeda will employ their full arsenal as well. While American military personnel and equipment involved in an attack on Afghanistan will likely be candidates for retaliation, al-Qaeda''s preferred targets are likely to be found in the American homeland. The al-Qaeda network, now estimated to number more than 5,000, has slipped members into the United States during the past months and even years as "sleepers" ready to be turned on. The terrorist action of Sept. 11 is unlikely the only weapon in al-Qaeda''s arsenal. America''s greatest assets are also serious liabilities when facing mega-terrorism: our liberties, our society''s openness, and our advanced technological economy. America is the reverse image of Afghanistan. One offers the most target-impoverished environment in the world. The other provides a rich array of targets: from skyscrapers, arenas, and other concentrations of thousands of people, to nuclear power plants, toxic manufacturing facilities, and suspension bridges.
For more information about this publication please contact the Belfer Center Communications Office at 617-495-9858.
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