ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
March 2012
"On the Use of Offensive Cyber Capabilities: A Policy Analysis on Offensive US Cyber Policy"
By Robert Belk and Matthew Noyes
This paper offers analysis and policy recommendations for use and response to various forms of cyber action for Offensive Military Cyber Policy. It establishes a pragmatic policy-relevant, effects-based ontology for categorizing cyber capabilities, and develops a comprehensive framework for cyber policy analysis. Furthermore, it demonstrates the utility of the cyber policy analysis framework by analyzing six key categories of external cyber actions identified by our ontology, which range the entire spectrum of cyber activity. Lastly, this work develops actionable policy recommendations from our analysis for cyber policy makers while identifying critical meta-questions.
May 2012
"Internet Fragmentation: Highlighting the Major Technical, Governance and Diplomatic Challenges for U.S. Policy Makers"
By Jonah Force Hill, Former Belfer IGA Fellow 2011–2012
The Internet is at a crossroads. Today it is generally open, interoperable and unified. Tomorrow, however, we may see an entirely different Internet, one not characterized by openness and global reach, but by restrictions, blockages and cleavages. In order to help ensure that the Internet continues to serve as a source of global integration, democratization, and economic growth, American policymakers must be aware of the most significant technical, political and legal challenges to a unified Internet.
May 2012
"Perceptions and Narratives of Security: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Iran-Iraq War"
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This paper explores the importance of the Iran-Iraq War for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) by analyzing how the Guards have used the war to present their positions on Iran's national security.
2012
Recommendations for Small Light Water Reactor Development in China
China Nuclear Power, issue 1, volume 5
By Yun Zhou, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
Abstract: This paper summarizes the history and features of advanced small light water reactor (ASWR), and provides recommendations and strategies on ASWR research and development in China. the ASWR can be used in remote power grid and replaces mid/small size fossil plant economically, and thus can be an important part of energy saving and emission reduction policy. the safety and economy characteristic of ASWR are able to effectively expand nuclear energy marekt in emerging countries and developing countries. therefore, ASWR should be considered as a critical part of China's nuclear technology and equipment export strategy.
March 2012
"The Twenty-First Century Will Not Be a 'Post-American' World"
International Studies Quarterly, issue 1, volume 56
By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor
"After the collapse of Cold War bipolarity, power in the global information age became distributed in a pattern that resembles a complex three-dimensional chess game. On the top chessboard, military power is largely unipolar, and the United States is likely to retain primacy for quite some time. But on the middle chessboard, economic power has been multi-polar for more than a decade...with the United States, Europe, Japan, and China as the major players, and others gaining in importance. The bottom chessboard is the realm of transnational relations that cross borders outside of government control. It includes nonstate actors as diverse as bankers electronically transferring funds, terrorists transferring weapons, hackers threatening cyber-security, and threats such as pandemics and climate change. On this bottom board, power is widely diffused, and it makes no sense to speak of unipolarity, multipolarity, or hegemony."
AP Photo
Forthcoming July 2012
"A New Case for Promoting Wastewater Reuse in Saudi Arabia: Bringing Energy into the Water Equation"
Journal of Environmental Management, volume 102
By Arani Kajenthira, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Afreen Siddiqi, Visting Scholar, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Laura Diaz Anadon, Associate Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Director, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group; Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy
Saudi Arabia is the third-largest per capita water user worldwide and has addressed the disparity between its renewable water resources and domestic demand primarily through desalination and the abstraction of non-renewable groundwater. This study evaluates the potential costs of this approach in the industrial and municipal sectors, exploring economic, energy, and environmental costs (including CO2 emissions and possible coastal impacts). Although the energy intensity of desalination is a global concern, it is particularly urgent to rethink water supply options in Saudi Arabia because the entirety of its natural gas production is consumed domestically, primarily in petrochemical and desalination plants.
AP Photo
March 2012
"China and Pakistan: Fair-Weather Friends"
Yale Journal of International Affairs, issue 1, volume VII
By Michael Beckley, Research Fellow, International Security Program
Two assumptions dominate current debates on US foreign policy toward Pakistan. First, Pakistan shares a robust "all-weather" friendship with China centered on core national interests. Second, Pakistan's ability to turn to China in times of need insulates it from US pressure and renders hardline US policies counterproductive. Both of these assumptions are mistaken.
AP Photo
May 2012
"The Price of Wind Power in China During its Expansion: Technology Adoption, Learning-by-doing, Economies of Scale, and Manufacturing Localization"
Energy Economics, issue 3, volume 34
By Yueming Qiu and Laura Diaz Anadon, Associate Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Director, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group; Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy
Using the bidding prices of participants in China's national wind project concession programs from 2003 to 2007, this paper built up a learning curve model to estimate the joint learning from learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching, with a novel knowledge stock metric based on technology adoption in China through both domestic technology development and international technology transfer. The paper describes, for the first time, the evolution of the price of wind power in China, and provides estimates of how technology adoption, experience building wind farm projects, wind turbine manufacturing localization, and wind farm economies of scale have influenced the price of wind power.
April 2012
"Power Outage: Syrian Armed Group Alliances in the Balance"
By Ethan Corbin, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This paper examines the state of Syria's regional armed group allies today in the face of Syrian decline.
Spring 2012
"Correspondence: Decline and Retrenchment: Peril or Promise?"
International Security, issue 36, volume 4
By William R. Thompson, Kyle Haynes, Paul MacDonald, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008 and Joseph M. Parent
Kyle Haynes and William R. Thompson respond to Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent's spring 2011 International Security article, "Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment."
