July 20, 2016
By Dan Altman, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program
"Conquest is a regular feature of war. But it is generally accepted that globalization and growing economic interconnectedness has stitched the world together in such a way that fighting each other for land is no longer pragmatic. Then in 2014, Russia stunned the world by annexing Crimea...."
Estimates of damages from climate change are dependent on estimates of global-average-temperature increase, which in turn depend on how marginal increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations affect temperature. The "likely" range of temperature increase from a doubling of concentrations has stalled for 35 years at 1.5–4.5° C—making estimates of damages difficult and unreliable.
"Frameworks for Evaluating Policy Approaches to Address the Competitiveness Concerns of Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions"
By Joseph E. Aldy, Faculty Affiliate, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements
Joseph Aldy examines competitiveness risks from domestic carbon pricing policies, as well as the risks posed by competitiveness policies (for example, border tax adjustments) intended to alleviate adverse impacts of carbon pricing. The paper presents two alternative frameworks for evaluating competitiveness policy options.
July 8, 2016
In this report, the Kosciuszko Institute invited authors to take up the most pressing cybersecurity challenges facing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The NATO Summit in Warsaw should begin the discussion about these key areas. Everything indicates that in the coming years, the discussions on the direction of the Alliance’s involvement in cyber operations will be dominated by two issues. The first concerns the need for the Alliance to specify exactly the activities carried out in the framework of collective defence and the development of NATO’s capabilities, including offensive, to operate in cyberspace. The second, frequently brought up in the discussion about the cybersecurity of the Alliance, is the need for comprehensive measures to be implemented to counter hybrid threats, including the multi-dimensional use of cyberspace as one of the most critical elements.
July 8, 2016
By Kate Miller, Research and Project Assistant, Cyber Security Project
While the issue of cyber operations beyond NATO’s own networks is a politically difficult one given the complex mosaic of national, transnational (EU), and international law; the role of national intelligence efforts in certain types of operations; and ever-present disputes over burden-sharing, the Alliance already has invaluable experience in developing policies and procedures for contentious and sensitive tools in the form of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG). This article begins with a brief overview of actions NATO has already taken to address cyberthreats. It will then explore why these, while important, are insufficient for the present and any imaginable future geopolitical threat environment. Next, it will address the history of the NPG, highlighting some parallels with the present situation regarding cyber and drawing out the challenges faced by, and activities and mechanisms of, the NPG. Finally, it will make the case that a group modeled on the NPG can not only significantly enhance the Alliance’s posture in cyberspace, but can serve as an invaluable space for fostering entente and reconciling differences on key aspects of cyber policy. It concludes that the Alliance needs to consider offensive cyber capabilities and planning, and it needs a Cyber Planning Group to do it.
"Federal Coal Program Reform, the Clean Power Plan, and the Interaction of Upstream and Downstream Climate Policies"
Can supply-side environmental policies that limit the extraction of fossil fuels reduce CO2 emissions? We study interactions between a specific supply-side policy — an environmental charge on federal coal — and demand-side emissions regulation under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). Using a detailed dynamic model of the power sector, we estimate that, absent the CPP, an environmental charge equal to the social cost of carbon would generate three-quarters of the projected CPP emissions reductions. With the CPP in place, the charge reduces emissions by reducing leakage and causing the CPP to be non-binding in some scenarios.
"Driving Force or Forced Transition?: The Role of Development Cooperation in Promoting Energy Transitions in the Philippines and Morocco"
Journal of Cleaner Production, issue 1, volume 128
This article contributes to the understanding of transitions towards low carbon societies in the developing world. While adding extensive empirical insights from the status of energy transitions in two countries faced with major energy challenges, the Philippines and Morocco, the authors contribution enquires what role external actors like international donors in general, and Germany in particular, can play in such transitions.
"Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts' Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies"
By Gregory Nemet, Former Visiting Scholar, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, January–June 2011, Laura Diaz Anadon, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Elena Verdolini
Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. The authors provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates.
Seventy-five years ago, on June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union, betting on a brief war with the firmest of goals, a type of war that came to be known as blitzkrieg.
Making sure that the German attack would catch the Soviets by surprise on a tactical, operational and even strategic level was one of the most important components of planning the blitzkrieg. To that end Berlin conducted an unprecedented disinformation campaign that proved largely successful.
"Open Arms Behind Barred Doors: Fear, Hypocrisy and Policy Schizophrenia in the European Migration Crisis"
European Law Journal, issue 3, volume 22
By Kelly M. Greenhill, Research Fellow, International Security Program
"In 2015, over one million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe, laying bare the limitations of the EU's common border control and burden-sharing systems. This article examines consequences of the EU's disjoint, schizophrenic and, at times, hypocritical responses to what has become known as the European migration crisis."