ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
May 2009
Pakistan Can Defy the Odds: How to Rescue a Failing State
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Is Pakistan collapsing? How far are the Taliban from Islamabad? Can al-Qaeda grab the country's nuclear weapons? These are the types of questions raised every day by the American media, academia and policy circles. And these are critical issues, given the nature of the evolving crisis in Pakistan. The approximately two dozen suicide bombings in 2009 so far, 66 in 2008, and 61 in 2007, all of which have targeted armed forces personnel, police, politicians, and ordinary people not only in the country's turbulent northwest but also in its major urban centers, indicate the seriousness of the threat. A major ammunition factory area located close to some very sensitive nuclear installations in Wah (Punjab) was targeted by two suicide bombers in August 2008, an act that sent shudders across the country's security establishment...."
AP Photo
April 2009
"Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network"
CTC Sentinel, issue 4, volume 2
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The Punjabi Taliban network is a loose conglomeration of members of banned militant groups of Punjabi origin—sectarian as well as those focused on the conflict in Kashmir—that have developed strong connections with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan Taliban and other militant groups based in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). They shuttle between FATA and the rest of Pakistan, providing logistical support to FATA- and Afghan-based militants to conduct terrorist operations deep inside Pakistan. Between March 2005 and March 2007 alone, for example, about 2,000 militants from southern and northern Punjab Province reportedly moved to South Waziristan and started different businesses in an effort to create logistical support networks. Given their knowledge about Punjabi cities and security structure, they have proved to be valuable partners for the TTP as it targets cities in Punjab, such as Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad...."
April 2009
Police & Law Enforcement Reform in Pakistan: Crucial for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Success
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The police infrastructure is one of Pakistan's most poorly managed organizations. It is aptly described as ill-equipped, poorly trained, deeply politicized, and chronically corrupt. It has performed well in certain operations; overall, however, that is a rare phenomenon. Arguably, the primary reason for this state of affairs is the government's persistent failure to invest in law enforcement reform and modernization. It is ironic that despite frequent internal crises since its inception in 1947, ranging from ethnic confrontations and sectarian battles to a sharp rise in criminal activity and growing insurgencies, both political and military policymakers have never given this sector top priority. Hence, poor police performance in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency is not surprising. The fact that the police successfully challenged some militant religious groups in Punjab and tackled an insurgency-like situation in Karachi in the late 1990s shows that they do have the potential to deliver the desired results when political support is present and resources are provided...."
January 26, 2009
President Obama's Policy Options in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"There is an emerging consensus among foreign policy experts that the growing insurgency and militancy in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) poses the greatest security challenge not only to Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also to the United States. Some scholars even project that a major terrorist act with al-Qaeda footprints in the United States might result in an American strike and ground invasion of this area."
November 2008
Partnership for Progress
By Xenia Dormandy, Former Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The Belfer Center's Xenia Dormandy and Hassan Abbas participated in a working group on the state of Pakistan convened by the Center for American Progress. The resulting report proposes strategies for enhanced security, democratization, and economic growth.
AP Photo
September 2008
"From FATA to the NWFP: The Taliban Spread Their Grip in Pakistan"
CTC Sentinel, issue 10, volume 1
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"...Any effort to stem the tide of extremism in the NWFP first requires a dispassionate analysis of the ground realities. This article attempts to examine such indicators, by explaining how the Taliban have managed to spread their influence from FATA into the NWFP, and will present some ideas on how to reverse extremist trends...."
AP Photo
January 2008
"A Profile of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan"
CTC Sentinel, issue 2, volume 1
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The organizational strength, military strategy and leadership quality of the Taliban in Pakistan's tribal territories has qualitatively improved during the last few years. At the time of the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan in late 2001, allies and sympathizers of the Taliban in Pakistan were not identified as 'Taliban' themselves. That reality is now a distant memory. Today, Pakistan's indigenous Taliban are an effective fighting force and are engaging the Pakistani military on one side and NATO forces on the other."
Summer 2007
Pakistan: Instability Raises Nuclear Security Concerns
Oxford Analytica
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Managing the Atom Fellow Hassan Abbas provides analysis of Pakistan’s nuclear command and control systems and the security of its nuclear program in the aftermath of the recent test-firing of a nuclear-capable missile and terrorist attack.
Spring 2006
"'Islam versus the West' and the Political Thought of AbdolKarim Soroush"
al Nakhlah, The Fletcher School Online Journal for Issues Related to Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"Extremist forces in the Muslim world can only be defeated if progressive forces in both the West and the Islamic world cooperate to tackle the issue through dialogue and constructive engagement. A partnership is required. A unilateral campaign by the West to win the hearts and minds of Muslims without listening to their concerns or enlisting their aid will not succeed."
Winter 2006
"Pakistan Through the Lens of the 'Triple A' Theory"
The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, issue 1, volume 30
By Hassan Abbas, Senior Advisor, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"How has a state whose founding fathers were secular people who believed in rule of law and democracy drifted toward religious extremism and authoritarianism? Three primary factors—variations on the Triple A theory of influence (Allah, the Army, and America)—have led Pakistan down this path: a powerful independent military, the mushrooming of religious militant groups, and the hydra-headed monster that is the intelligence services."
