ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
January 2013
"The Fate of an Engineered Planet"
Scientific American, issue 1, volume 308
By David Keith, Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Andy Parker, Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program
Solar engineering and other exceptionally ambitious new technologies to deal with the reality of rising global temperatures come riddled with uncertainties. To illustrate how complex the problem is and what kind of challenges lie ahead, here are three contrasting, and somewhat fantastical, scenarios.
Winter 2013
"RIP: The Basic/Applied Research Dichotomy"
Issues in Science and Technology, issue 2, volume XXIX
By Venkatesh "Venky" Narayanamurti, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy; Professor of Physics, Harvard; Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, Tolu Odumosu, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Lee Vinsel
"This mini-history reveals how knowledge grows through a richly interwoven system of scientific and technological research in which there is no clear hierarchy of importance and no straightforward linear trajectory. Accepting this reality has profound implications for the design of research institutions, the allocation of resources, and the national policies that guide research. This in turn can open the door to game-changing discoveries and inventions and put the nation on the path to a more sustainable science and technology ecosystem."
AP Images
January 22, 2013
"The Middle Eastern Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ)- Nuclear Verification"
By Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Christian Charlier
The establishment of a WMDFZ in the Middle East is a real challenge for the international community taking into consideration the absence of favorable conditions such as the mutual states recognitions as political entities with established diplomatic relations, and stability. To start with, there is no one single model for existing Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ). Each existing NWFZ treaty had introduced elements, including creative legal arrangements, and unique features depending on the specificities of each zone. The current treaties of the South Pacific NWFZ, the Southeast Asian NWFZ, the African NWFZ, the Latin American NWFZ, and the Central Asian NWFZ, can be studied and applied where relevant. So, too, there exist organizations responsible for the verification of these treaties (IAEA, OPCW, CTBTO). The case of the Middle East will be more complex since the treaty is envisioned to cover all weapons of mass destruction including biological and chemical as well as their delivery vehicles. A large number of political, historical, technical, and verification issues need to be factored into the Treaty. In other words, working on a WMDFZ means the necessity to deal with all WMD aspects together. Progressing the WMDFZ further means looking at a composite picture of states’ concerns and relations in the region that just counting weapons reduction alone.
December 2012
"A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: Creating the Conditions for Sustained Progress"
By Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom and Paolo Foradori, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
How can the states of the Middle East begin to create the political conditions for achieving sustained progress toward the elimination of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons? This paper examines the challenges and obstacles that the parties of the region will need to overcome to bring a WMD-free zone into force, and recommends near-term steps for improving regional security.
NNSA Production Office
December 14, 2012
"Defining and Implementing Best Practices in Nuclear Security"
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
This paper analyzes the contribution that best practices can make to the field of nuclear security by doing the following:
- Defining what is meant by best practice
- Specifying a methodology for deriving it
- Understanding the resulting characteristics of the method
- Comparing its pros and cons to other methods contributing to security, such as guidelines and regulations
Winter 2012/13
"Correspondence: Debating China's Rise and U.S. Decline"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Associate, International Security Program and Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson responds to Michael Beckley's winter 2011/12 International Security article, "China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure."
AP Photoo
Winter 2012/13
"The Long and Short of It: Cognitive Constraints on Leaders’ Assessments of 'Postwar' Iraq"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Aaron Rapport, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2009–2010
The George W. Bush administration’s assessments of challenges that might come after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq were wide of the mark, but it is unclear why this was the case. An established psychological theory that describes how peoplementally represent distant future actions—as opposed to those that are seen as impending—explains the nature of strategic assessment in the Iraq case. As individuals think about actions at the end of a sequence of events, the desirability of their goals becomes increasingly salient relative to the feasibility of achieving them. This makes decisionmakers more prone to underestimate the costs and risks of future actions.
AP Photo
Winter 2012/13
"Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining the Linkage Argument"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
Comparative assessment of the arguments on both sides suggests that signs of commitment to nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states will tend to enhance support for nonproliferation. Because of the multitude of other factors that affect state decisionmaking, however, progress on disarmament will not by itself address all of the challenges to making the nonproliferation regime effective.
AP Photo
Winter 2012/13
"Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By James K. Sebenius, Gordon Donaldson Professor of Business Administration, HBS, Belfer Center Faculty Affiliate and Michael K. Singh
Varied diplomatic approaches by multiple negotiators over the past several years have failed to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran. Mutual hostility, misperception, and flawed diplomacy may be responsible. Yet, more fundamentally, no mutually acceptable deal may exist. To assess this possibility, a “negotiation analytic” framework conceptually disentangles two issues: (1) whether a feasible deal exists; and (2) how to design the most promising process to achieve one.
Winter 2012/13
"Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Stephen Brooks, Former Fellow, International Security Program, 2003-2004, G. John Ikenberry and William Wohlforth, Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security
After sixty-five years of pursuing a grand strategy of global leadership—nearly a third of which transpired without a peer great power rival—has the time come for the United States to switch to a strategy of retrenchment? This analysis shows that advocates of retrenchment radically overestimate the costs of deep engagement and underestimate its benefits. We conclude that the fundamental choice to retain a grand strategy of deep engagement after the Cold War is just what the preponderance of international relations scholarship would expect a rational, self-interested leading power in America’s position to do.
