ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
July 2009
"The Dynamics of Climate Agreements"
By Bard Harstad
This paper provides a novel dynamic model of private provision of public goods. The agents can also invest in cost-reducing technologies but, nevertheless, the Markov-Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) is unique and the analysis tractable. The non-cooperative outcome is compared to scenarios where the agents can contract on contributions investment), and the optimal contract is derived.
While the model fits a variety of contexts, the policy implications for climate agree- ments are particularly important. Environmental agreements (e.g. the Kyoto protocol) are typically specifying emissions but not investments in technology, since such e¤orts would be hard to verify. They often have a limited time horizon and future commitments remain to be negotiated.
Summer 2009
"Correspondence: Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Andrew Barros, Talbot C. Imlay, Evan Resnick, Norrin M. Ripsman and Jack S. Levy
Andrew Barros, Talbot Imlay, and Evan Resnick reply to Norrin Ripsman and Jack Levy's Fall 2008 International Security article, "Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s."
Summer 2009
"The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality? A Review Essay"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Christopher Layne, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1995-1996
Over the next two decades, international politics will be shaped by whether the international system remains unipolar or is transformed into a multipolar system. Can the United States sustain its primacy? Or will the emergence of new great powers reorder the distribution of power in the international system?
Summer 2009
"Speed Kills: Analyzing the Deployment of Conventional Ballistic Missiles"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
The United States, if it works to mitigate the risk of misperception and an inadvertent nuclear response, should deploy near-term conventional ballistic missiles (CBMs) in support of the prompt global strike (PGS) mission. The prompt response of CBMs would likely be sufficient to defeat many time-sensitive, soft targets, provided actionable intelligence was available.
Summer 2009
"The Limits of Coercive Airpower: NATO'S 'Victory' in Kosovo Revisited"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
Despite NATO's overwhelming strategic superiority, Milošević was able to reject his adversary's terms of surrender until his political position became untenable. This suggests that airpower may have greater limitations as a tool of statecraft than its supporters maintain.
Summer 2009
"Ending the Korean War: the Role of Domestic Coalition Shifts in Overcoming Obstacles to Peace"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
Bargaining models of war suggest that war ends after two sides develop an overlapping bargaining space. Through preference, information, and entrapment obstacles, wars can become "stuck" and require a change in expectations to produce a war-terminating bargaining space. A major source of such change is a shift in belligerents’ governing coalitions.
AP Photo
Summer 2009
"Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
Matthew Fuhrmann's article "Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," was published by in the Summer 2009 issue of International Security. In his article, Dr. Fuhrmann argues "Peaceful nuclear cooperation—the transfer of nuclear technology, materials, or know-how from one state to another for peaceful purposes—leads to the spread of nuclear weapons. With a renaissance in nuclear power on the horizon, major suppliers, including the United States, should reconsider their willingness to assist other countries in developing peaceful nuclear programs."
July 16, 2009
"Decommissioning the North Korean Nuclear Facilities: Approaches and Costs"
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Hui Zhang presented his paper "Decommissioning the North Korean Nuclear Facilities: Approaches and Costs," at the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 50th Annual Meeting, in Tucson, Arizona, 12-16 July 2009.
Penn State RS and EC
July 16, 2009
"On China’s Commercial Reprocessing Policy"
By Hui Zhang, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Hui Zhang presented his paper "On China’s Commercial Reprocessing Policy," at the Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 50th Annual Meeting, in Tucson, Arizona, 12-16 July 2009.
AP Photo
Spring 2009
"Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security"
Innovations, issue 2, volume 4
By Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."
