October 23, 2015
Science & Global Security, issue 3, volume 23
By Hui Zhang, Senior Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
New public information allows a fresh estimate of China's current and under-construction uranium enrichment capacity. This paper uses open source information and commercial satellite imagery to identify and offer estimates of the capacity of China's 10 operating enrichment facilities, located at 4 sites, using centrifuge technology most likely based on adapting Russian technology. The total currently operating civilian centrifuge enrichment capacity is estimated to be about 4.5 million separative work units/year (SWU/year), with additional capacity estimated to be about 2 million SWU/year under construction. Also China could have an enrichment capacity of around 0.6 million SWU/year for non-weapon military uses (i.e., naval fuel) or dual use. These estimates are much larger than previous public estimates of China's total enrichment capacity. Further expansion of enrichment capacity may be likely since China will require about 9 million SWU/year by 2020 to meet the enriched uranium fuel needs for its planned nuclear power reactor capacity of 58 gigawatts-electric (GWe) by 2020 under its policy of self-sufficiency in the supply of enrichment services.
October 20, 2015
By Trevor Findlay, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
In this new report, Trevor Findlay provides the first comprehensive study of the IAEA's handling of states not complying with their non-proliferation obligations. The report finds that none of the cases have followed the non-compliance process outlined in the Agency's Statute and safeguards agreements. Rather, each case has posed unique challenges to the non-proliferation regime. The report concludes that creativity and deft statecraft are key to the handling of complex non-compliance cases.
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, International Engagement on Cyber V: Securing Critical Infrastructure
By Melissa Hathaway, Senior Advisor, Cyber Security Project
In this issue of International Engagement on Cyber, authors discuss developments, challenges, and improvements to critical infrastructure cybersecurity from legal, policy, and technical perspectives. Cyber V also evaluates cybersecurity in Brazil, suggests improved government and private sector cybersecurity practices, and theorizes military actions in the information age.
By William Hogan, Raymond Plank Professor of Global Energy Policy
U.S. states would implement the federal Clean Power Plan using a variety of policies that could either undermine or support the operation of electricity markets.
Carbon budgets have emerged as a robust metric of warming, but their application to climate policy has been limited to global assessments. This Discussion Paper explores the potential of regional carbon budgets to inform climate policy.
October 7, 2015
By Nickolas Roth, Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"One category of nuclear material that has not yet been adequately addressed throughout recent Nuclear Security Summits is military stockpiles.2 Instead, the Summit process has focused primarily on reducing the risk of civilian nuclear material theft..."
October 2, 2015
Science, issue 6256, volume 350
By Carlo Carraro, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christian Flachsland, Charles Kolstad, Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government; Member of the Board; Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements and Robert C. Stowe
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proven its value as an institution for large-scale scientific collaboration to synthesize and assess large volumes of climate research for use by policy-makers, as well as for establishing credibility of findings among diverse national governments. But the IPCC has received considerable criticism of both its substance and process."
International History Review, issue 5, volume 37
By Jayita Sarkar, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
The article examines the strategic circumstances leading to non-aligned India's safeguard of its nuclear option during a crucial period in its proliferation trajectory, when it was one of the states closest to nuclear-weapons development, and faced US pressures to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that was being negotiated at the time.
"'Wean Them Away from French Tutelage': Franco-Indian Nuclear Relations and Anglo-American Anxieties During the Early Cold War, 1948–1952"
Cold War History, Nuclear History and the Cold War Special Issue, issue 3, volume 15
By Jayita Sarkar, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Based on multi-archival research, this article explores the significance of Franco-Indian nuclear relations against the backdrop of Anglo-American endeavours to censor information related to atomic energy and to secure control of strategic minerals during the early Cold War.
Nature Climate Change
By Zhu Liu, Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, Steven J Davis, Kuishuang Feng, Klaus Hubacek, Sai Liang, Laura Diaz Anadon, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Bin Chen, Jingru Liu, Jinyue Yan and Dabo Guan
International trade has become the fastest growing driver of global carbon emissions, with large quantities of emissions embodied in exports from emerging economies. International trade with emerging economies poses a dilemma for climate and trade policy: to the extent emerging markets have comparative advantages in manufacturing, such trade is economically efficient and desirable. However, if carbon-intensive manufacturing in emerging countries such as China entails drastically more CO2 emissions than making the same product elsewhere, then trade increases global CO2 emissions.