ACADEMIC PAPERS & REPORTS
June 8, 2012
Harvard/Rice Study Explores Scenarios for Future of Natural Gas
By Jonas Meckling, Former Research Fellow, Geopolitics of Energy Project, 2010–2012; Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, 2009–2010; Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2007–2009
On May 9 and 10, the Geopolitics of Natural Gas study had its third workshop to develop scenarios for the geopolitics of natural gas. This time the members of the two-year joint Harvard/Rice project met at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston. The two-day session brought together experts on major gas producer and consumer countries, economists specialized in world gas modelling and industry representatives.
June 2012
"The Need for the Next Special Operations Forces' Mobility Aircraft"
By Joseph K. Michalek, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
The proliferation of threat systems and Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies make performing special operations forces' (SOF) air mobility missions increasingly complicated and limit the capability to defeat air defenses and penetrate into denied airspace. Combined with an aging inventory, ill suited to evading these threats, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) and the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) must look to technology to defeat the more modern threat systems and anti-access strategies. The best answer to penetrate future, denied regions is in stealth or low observable (LO) technology.
AP Photo
June 2012
"Oil Development in China: Current Status and Future Trends"
Energy Policy, volume 45
By Linwei Ma, Feng Fu, Former Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group (ETIP), 2011–2012; Former Research Fellow, ETIP, 2010–2011, Zheng Li and Pei Liu
This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China's oil development through system analysis. The authors design three scenarios of China's oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil conservation, automotive energy development, and energy security. From their analysis, they draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as controlling total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, enhancing oil conservation in all sectors with the emphasis on road transportation, and increasing investment in oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions.
May 2012
"Post-Durban Climate Policy Architecture Based on Linkage of Cap-and-Trade Systems"
By Matthew Ranson and Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government; Member of the Board; Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements
The outcome of the December 2011 United Nations climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa, provides an important new opportunity to move toward an international climate policy architecture that is capable of delivering broad international participation and significant global CO2 emissions reductions at reasonable cost. We evaluate one important component of potential climate policy architecture for the post-Durban era: links among independent tradable permit systems for greenhouse gases.
AP Photo/Nabil al-Jurani, File
June 2012
"Oil: The Next Revolution"
By Leonardo Maugeri, Roy Family Fellow, Geopolitics of Energy Project
A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s major oil formations and exploration projects.
Rob Grover Photo
April 3, 2012
"Land and Water Impacts of Oil Sands Production in Alberta"
Environmental Science and Technology, issue 7, volume 46
By Sarah Jordaan, Former Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy (ETIP) research group, April–August 2012; Former Research Fellow, ETIP, February 2011–March 2012
Expansion of oil sands development results not only in the release of greenhouse gas emissions, but also impacts land and water resources. Though less discussed internationally due to to their inherently local nature, land and water impacts can be severe. Research in key areas is needed to manage oil sands operations effectively; including improved monitoring of ground and surface water quality.
May 2012
"The Politics of Psychology in the British Empire, 1898–1960"
Past & Present, issue 1, volume 215
By Erik Linstrum, Former Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program, 2011–2012
"This article first considers the ways in which experimental psychology and psychoanalysis hastened the obsolescence of ideas about the so-called 'primitive mind' and, in some cases, served the purposes of overtly anti-colonial politics. It then surveys the history of intelligence testing in the British Empire, which originated in the aftermath of the First World War, expanded in scale after the Second, and ultimately contributed to post-colonial development. Finally, it asks how far the case of psychology puts the very concept of 'colonial science' into question."
March 2012
"On the Use of Offensive Cyber Capabilities: A Policy Analysis on Offensive US Cyber Policy"
By Robert Belk and Matthew Noyes
This paper offers analysis and policy recommendations for use and response to various forms of cyber action for Offensive Military Cyber Policy. It establishes a pragmatic policy-relevant, effects-based ontology for categorizing cyber capabilities, and develops a comprehensive framework for cyber policy analysis. Furthermore, it demonstrates the utility of the cyber policy analysis framework by analyzing six key categories of external cyber actions identified by our ontology, which range the entire spectrum of cyber activity. Lastly, this work develops actionable policy recommendations from our analysis for cyber policy makers while identifying critical meta-questions.
May 2012
"Internet Fragmentation: Highlighting the Major Technical, Governance and Diplomatic Challenges for U.S. Policy Makers"
By Jonah Force Hill, Former Belfer IGA Fellow 2011–2012
The Internet is at a crossroads. Today it is generally open, interoperable and unified. Tomorrow, however, we may see an entirely different Internet, one not characterized by openness and global reach, but by restrictions, blockages and cleavages. In order to help ensure that the Internet continues to serve as a source of global integration, democratization, and economic growth, American policymakers must be aware of the most significant technical, political and legal challenges to a unified Internet.
May 2012
"Perceptions and Narratives of Security: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Iran-Iraq War"
By Annie Tracy Samuel, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This paper explores the importance of the Iran-Iraq War for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) by analyzing how the Guards have used the war to present their positions on Iran's national security.
