By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
In Zion's Dilemmas, a former deputy national security adviser to the State of Israel details the history and, in many cases, the chronic inadequacies in the making of Israeli national security policy. The author uses his insider understanding and substantial archival and interview research to describe how Israel has made strategic decisions and to present a first of its kind model of national security decision-making in Israel.†The book†concludes with cogent and timely recommendations for reform.
By Terence Roehrig, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
Despite continuing efforts to convince North Korea to relinquish its nuclear capability, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will ever do so. Pyongyang might be willing to curtail or freeze certain parts of the program but the likelihood of North Korean denuclearization is quickly fading. With Pyongyang likely to retain some level of nuclear-weapons capability, analysis turns to an assessment of how these weapons might be integrated into its defense posture. Using deterrence theory as the analytical framework, this chapter examines possible avenues for North Korea's nuclear weapons strategy and doctrine.
Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances.
By David L. Phillips, Former Non-Resident Fellow, The Future of Diplomacy Project
In Liberating Kosovo, David Phillips offers a compelling account of the negotiations and military actions that culminated in Kosovo's independence. Drawing on his own participation in the diplomatic process and interviews with leading participants, Phillips chronicles Slobodan Milosevic's rise to power, the sufferings of the Kosovars, and the events that led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia. He analyzes how NATO, the United Nations, and the United States employed diplomacy, aerial bombing, and peacekeeping forces to set in motion the process that led to independence for Kosovo.
By Robert Reardon, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
This study assesses current U.S. policy options on the Iranian nuclear question. It suggests that U.S. goals can be met through patient and forward-looking policymaking. Specifically, the United States can begin to lay the groundwork for an effective containment policy while continuing efforts to forestall Iranian weaponization. A successful containment policy will promote long-term positive political change in Iran while avoiding counterproductive provocation.
By John S. Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
This chapter examines the relationship between security assurances and North Korean nuclear decision-making by focusing on four key areas: key geopolitical shocks that had a major impact on the North Korean regime; main sources of security assurances for North Korea over its history; this volume's hypotheses on security assurances based on how North Korea reacted to geopolitical shocks; and conditions under which security assurances may be most effective in dealing with North Korea in the future.
This book represents the first study to explore the overall utility of assurance strategies, to evaluate their effectiveness as a tool for preventing nuclear proliferation, and to identify conditions under which they are more or less likely to be effective.
By Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom
This chapter examines instances in which states have used military force for the purpose of preventing or delaying an adversaryís acquisition of nuclear weapons.†† What can be learned from past cases?† What are the barriers to effective military prevention?† Under what conditions has the use of force been successful in proliferation cases?† How is the policy perceived by neutral governments and what is the relationship between the perceived legitimacy of military action and its political effectiveness?† The chapter reviews all cases in which force was used to attempt to destroy an adversaryís nuclear facilities.
This volume addresses the topic of how this ongoing paradigmatic shift will affect the effectiveness of arms control as a conflict management instrument.While some argue that new instruments can complement and strengthen traditional, multilateral and inclusive arms control regimes, others maintain that conflicts and contradictions between coercive and cooperative arms control regimes will severely limit their effectiveness.
May 22, 2012
By Olli Heinonen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
In this chapter, Olli Heinonen examines a decade of actions taken by Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding Iranís nuclear program. Heinonen suggests a number of measures Iran might take to provide assurance to the international community that it is not developing nuclear weapons.† He writes: In tandem with the continued search for a negotiated political solution between the P5+1 and Iran, the IAEA should continue to press for commitments that would provide the best assurances on that Iranís nuclear program is peaceful. This means that the verification process will have to be comprehensive and expansive. What this also means is that the current stage of unsatisfactory cooperation and approach by Iran to the IAEA needs to change. Given the past experiences, if Iran takes the opportunity of widening those with the following measures, the IAEA will be in a position to provide assurances about the scope of Iranís nuclear program.