March 11, 2014
By Trevor Findlay, Senior Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
Since it became apparent that the nuclear security summits are likely to end with a final meeting in Washington DC in 2016 there has been much speculation―but little detailed analysis―as to what might replace them. One candidate touted as a suitable inheritor of the summits’ mantle is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This discussion paper examines whether and to what extent the IAEA could and should do so, what form its role might take, and how the Agency and the summiteers might prepare for such an eventuality. The paper begins by examining the evolving roles of both the summits and the IAEA in nuclear security diplomacy. In this light it investigates the extent to which the IAEA could, given its current resources and approaches, emulate the innovative aspects of the summits, or take over at least some of their functions. The paper concludes with recommendations for the summiteers and the IAEA in preparing for such outcomes.
This discussion paper explores the potential adverse impacts of unilateral climate policies on domestic energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries.
By Scott Moore, Giorgio Ruffolo Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Sustainability Science Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group
Northern China's Yellow River is experiencing conditions of acute water scarcity, which has become an issue of growing concern to scholars, policymakers, and the public at large in both China and abroad. This Discussion Paper analyzes the current and future response of the Chinese government to conditions of water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin.
"The Optimal Energy Mix in Power Generation and the Contribution from Natural Gas in Reducing Carbon Emissions to 2030 and Beyond"
The authors evaluate the consistency of economic incentives and climate objectives in Europe, with regard to energy markets. In this context, they examine policy interactions between the EU-ETS and Europe's renewable target—and the role of natural gas in a transition to a low-carbon economy.
The comparability of domestic actions to mitigate global climate change has important implications for the stability, equity, and efficiency of international climate agreements. the authors examine a variety of metrics that could be used to evaluate countries' climate change mitigation effort and illustrate their potential application for large developed and developing countries.
The author finds that, in theory, if countries agree to negotiate an international agreement in terms of a harmonized shadow price on carbon and if passage of the agreement is conditioned on a simple majority of countries voting in favor, then the incentives that countries face can lead to their agreeing to a uniform shadow price on carbon that is close to the price that would lead to an efficient outcome in terms of emissions abatement.
Does temperature affect economic performance—and has it always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance.
By Henrik Larsen, Research Fellow, International Security Program
This paper explains changes in NATO's nationbuilding strategy for Afghanistan over time as an internal push-and-pull struggle between the major NATO contributors. It distinguishes between he "light footprint" phase, which had numerous problems connected to limited resources and growing insurgency (2003–2008), NATO's adoption of a comprehensive approach (CSPMP) and counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy (2009–2011), the transition and drawdown (2011–2014), and the Enduring Partnership (beyond 2014). The paper explains NATO's drawdown, stressing both increased budgetary strictures compelling decisionmakers to focus on domestic concerns nd predominant national narratives connected to a protracted stabilization effort in Afghanistan.
The authors draw upon the past decade of experience with carbon markets to test a series of hypotheses about why governments have demonstrated a preference for linking.
November 1, 2013
How significant is the proposal for a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, given the violence and turmoil rocking the region? The short essays in this discussion paper, by experts from across the region, provide a snap shot of the diversity of views on the issue. As a collection, the essays demonstrate the scale and complexity of the challenges associated with establishing a WMD-free zone in the region. The gaps between the positions of key parties are clearly evident; but the reader will also find unexpected commonalities.