JOURNAL ARTICLES
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Summer 2011
"After Unipolarity: China's Visions of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline"
International Security, issue 1, volume 36
By Randall Schweller, Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security and Xiaoyu Pu
Balancing theory suggests that China’s emergence as a global power should signal a transition from unipolarity to a multipolarity, but so far no such power shift has occurred. Nevertheless, given its expanding economy, China is increasingly challenging U.S. hegemony. It remains unclear, however, whether China will strive to replace the United States as the sole global authority, modify the current system to allow for multipolarity, or continue to focus on internal development and enact the change to a Chinese order gradually.
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July 2011
"Preparing to Ramp up Large-scale CCS Demonstrations: An Engineering-economic Assessment of CO2 Pipeline Transportation in China"
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, issue 4, volume 5
By Hengwei Liu, Former Associate, and Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2008-2010 and Kelly Sims Gallagher, Senior Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group
An integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) system requires safe and cost-efficient solutions for transportation of the CO2 from the capturing facility to the location of storage. While growing efforts in China are underway to understand CO2 capture and storage, comparatively less attention has been paid to CO2 transportation issues. Also, to the best of our knowledge, there are no publicly available China-specific cost models for CO2 pipeline transportation that have been published in peer-reviewed journals. This paper has been developed to determine a first-order estimate of China's cost of onshore CO2 pipeline transportation.
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Summer 2011
"The Rubicon Theory of War: How the Path to Conflict Reaches the Point of No Return"
International Security, issue 1, volume 36
By Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2009
The Rubicon theory of war explains how leaders grappling with the possibility of war may experience a sudden shift in mentality from deliberation to implementation, decreasing the chance of a peaceful resolution. Experimental psychology has demonstrated that the act of making a decision can bring about a state of overconfidence, irrational optimism, and closed-mindedness, limiting rational thought and the ability to compromise. If leaders make this psychological shift before war has become inevitable, narrower vision and lack of deliberation may contribute to the outbreak of war.
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May/June 2011
"Fool Me Twice: How the United States Lost Lebanon—Again"
World Affairs
By Eric S. Edelman, Senior Associate, International Security Program and Mara E. Karlin
"For the second time in three decades, a substantial American investment of time, money, and effort to strengthen the Lebanese government and support its fledgling democracy has come to very little. Hezbollah, Tehran, and Damascus now dominate the country’s intractable domestic politics. US diplomacy is left powerless, wondering how to make the best of an increasingly untenable situation in the Levant."
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2011
"China's Spent Nuclear Fuel Management: Current Practices and Future Strategies"
Energy Policy, issue 7, volume 39
By Yun Zhou, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
Although China's nuclear power industry is relatively young and the management of its spent nuclear fuel is not yet a concern, China’s commitment to nuclear energy and its rapid pace of development require detailed analyses of its future spent fuel management policies. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of China's fuel cycle program and its reprocessing policy, and to suggest strategies for managing its future fuel cycle program.
January-April 2011
"China's HEU and Plutonium Production and Stocks"
Science & Global Security, issue 1, volume 19
By Hui Zhang, Senior Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Hui Zhang's article "China's HEU and Plutonium Production and Stocks" was published in the January-April 2011 issue of Science & Global Security. This article discusses the history of China’s production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for nuclear weapons and uses new public information to estimate the amount of highly enriched uranium and plutonium China produced at its two gaseous diffusion plants and two plutonium production complexes.
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May 2011
"The Globalization of Carbon Trading: Transnational Business Coalitions in Climate Politics"
Global Environmental Politics, issue 2, volume 11
By Jonas Meckling, Former Research Fellow, Geopolitics of Energy Project, 2010–2012; Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, 2009–2010; Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2007–2009
Over the last decade, carbon trading has emerged as the policy instrument of choice in the industrialized world to address global climate change. This paper argues that a transnational business coalition, representing mostly energy firms and energy-intensive manufacturers, actively promoted the global rise of carbon trading. In this process, business could draw on the support of government allies and business-oriented environmental groups, particularly in the UK and the US.
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April 2011
"Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation?"
The Journal of Strategic Studies, issue 2, volume 34
By Sarah Kreps, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007–2008 and Matthew Fuhrmann, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom, January–August 2009; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2008–December 2009
"What does the historical record suggest about the consequences of a potential American or Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program? Although military force delayed proliferation in some previous cases, policymakers must remember that past may not be prologue. In particular, the three indirect mechanisms we identified are unlikely to 'work' in the Iranian case."
March 2011
"Chemistry, Green Chemistry, and the Instrumental Valuation of Sustainability"
Minerva, issue 1, volume 49
By Nathaniel Logar, Associate, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group
Using the Public Value Mapping framework, the author addresses the values successes and failures of chemistry as compared to the emerging field of green chemistry, in which the promoters attempt to incorporate new and expanded values, such as health, safety, and environmental sustainability, to the processes of prioritizing and conducting chemistry research.
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Enero–Marzo de 2011
"¿Qué sucedió (y por qué)? Una evaluación de los Acuerdos de Cancún"
Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica, issue 1, volume 11
By Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government; Member of the Board; Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements
Las negociaciones internacionales sobre el clima que se llevaron a cabo en Cancún, México, han concluido, y a pesar de las fatídicas predicciones que dominaron las semanas y los meses previos a dicha reunión, se debe considerar que la xvi Conferencia de las Partes (COP-16) de la Convención Marco de Nacio — nes Unidas sobre Cambio Climático (CMNUCC) fue un éxito. Representa un modesto avance. No se debe esperar nada más de este proceso.
