JOURNAL ARTICLES
Forthcoming 2013
"Bridging Decision Networks for Integrated Water and Energy Planning"
Energy Strategy Reviews
By Afreen Siddiqi, Visting Scholar, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Arani Kajenthira, Associate, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Laura Diaz Anadon, Associate Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Director, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group; Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy
Integrated policy and planning is needed to effectively meet the challenges of growing water and energy inter-dependencies in many regions. Joint consideration of both water and energy domains can identify new options for increasing overall resource use efficiencies. In order to identify and realize such opportunities, however, detailed knowledge of current and emerging water–energy couplings is needed along with a nuanced understanding of key actors and agencies engaged in decision-making. In this paper we develop a systematic, analytical approach based on quantitative analysis of water and energy couplings, identification and characterization of key actors and groups using concepts from stakeholders theory, and employing notions from organization theory of boundary-spanning agents that can serve to bridge inter-organizational networks for water and energy planning. We apply this approach to conduct an in-depth investigation of water and energy resources in Jordan.
January 2013
"The Fate of an Engineered Planet"
Scientific American, issue 1, volume 308
By David Keith, Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Andy Parker, Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program
Solar engineering and other exceptionally ambitious new technologies to deal with the reality of rising global temperatures come riddled with uncertainties. To illustrate how complex the problem is and what kind of challenges lie ahead, here are three contrasting, and somewhat fantastical, scenarios.
Winter 2013
"RIP: The Basic/Applied Research Dichotomy"
Issues in Science and Technology, issue 2, volume XXIX
By Venkatesh "Venky" Narayanamurti, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy; Professor of Physics, Harvard; Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Co-Principal Investigator, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, Tolu Odumosu, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Lee Vinsel
"This mini-history reveals how knowledge grows through a richly interwoven system of scientific and technological research in which there is no clear hierarchy of importance and no straightforward linear trajectory. Accepting this reality has profound implications for the design of research institutions, the allocation of resources, and the national policies that guide research. This in turn can open the door to game-changing discoveries and inventions and put the nation on the path to a more sustainable science and technology ecosystem."
Winter 2012/13
"Correspondence: Debating China's Rise and U.S. Decline"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Associate, International Security Program and Michael Beckley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2011–2012
Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson responds to Michael Beckley's winter 2011/12 International Security article, "China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure."
AP Photoo
Winter 2012/13
"The Long and Short of It: Cognitive Constraints on Leaders’ Assessments of 'Postwar' Iraq"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Aaron Rapport, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2009–2010
The George W. Bush administration’s assessments of challenges that might come after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq were wide of the mark, but it is unclear why this was the case. An established psychological theory that describes how peoplementally represent distant future actions—as opposed to those that are seen as impending—explains the nature of strategic assessment in the Iraq case. As individuals think about actions at the end of a sequence of events, the desirability of their goals becomes increasingly salient relative to the feasibility of achieving them. This makes decisionmakers more prone to underestimate the costs and risks of future actions.
AP Photo
Winter 2012/13
"Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining the Linkage Argument"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
Comparative assessment of the arguments on both sides suggests that signs of commitment to nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states will tend to enhance support for nonproliferation. Because of the multitude of other factors that affect state decisionmaking, however, progress on disarmament will not by itself address all of the challenges to making the nonproliferation regime effective.
AP Photo
Winter 2012/13
"Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Framework for the Iran Nuclear Negotiations"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By James K. Sebenius, Gordon Donaldson Professor of Business Administration, HBS, Belfer Center Faculty Affiliate and Michael K. Singh
Varied diplomatic approaches by multiple negotiators over the past several years have failed to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran. Mutual hostility, misperception, and flawed diplomacy may be responsible. Yet, more fundamentally, no mutually acceptable deal may exist. To assess this possibility, a “negotiation analytic” framework conceptually disentangles two issues: (1) whether a feasible deal exists; and (2) how to design the most promising process to achieve one.
Winter 2012/13
"Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment"
International Security, issue 3, volume 37
By Stephen Brooks, Former Fellow, International Security Program, 2003-2004, G. John Ikenberry and William Wohlforth, Editorial Board Member, Quarterly Journal: International Security
After sixty-five years of pursuing a grand strategy of global leadership—nearly a third of which transpired without a peer great power rival—has the time come for the United States to switch to a strategy of retrenchment? This analysis shows that advocates of retrenchment radically overestimate the costs of deep engagement and underestimate its benefits. We conclude that the fundamental choice to retain a grand strategy of deep engagement after the Cold War is just what the preponderance of international relations scholarship would expect a rational, self-interested leading power in America’s position to do.
NEAMS/DOE Photo
2012
"Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy"
Environmental Science and Technology, issue 12, volume 46
By Laura Diaz Anadon, Associate Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; Director, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group; Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Valentina Bosetti, Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Michela Catenacci and Audrey Lee, Former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2009–2011
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.
AP Photo
December 2012–January 2013
"Striking Iran: The Debate in Israel"
Survival, issue 6, volume 54
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Although the unusual public nature and stridency of the debate struck many around the world, it is still hard for those abroad to understand how great the effect on the Israeli public has been. The Iranian nuclear programme had been the one consensual issue in an otherwise politically frenetic and deeply divided country and was dealt with, so the public believed, in a manner appropriate to the severity of the threat."
