JOURNAL ARTICLES
AP Photo
Summer 2009
"Planning the Peace and Enforcing the Surrender: Deterrence in the Allied Occupations of Germany and Japan"
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, issue 1, volume 40
By Melissa Willard-Foster, Research Fellow, International Security Program
Much is known about the efforts of the United States to democratize, reconstruct, and deliver humanitarian aid to Germany and Japan after their defeat in WorldWar II. Much less is known about the willingness of the United States to use coercive tactics to deter and counter resistance to its military occupation of the two countries. Many of the scholars and politicians who consider the occupations of Germany and Japan to be models for success, largely because of their peaceful outcomes, often overlook the initial period of occupation, in which latent violence figured prominently. An understanding of this early period, however, is crucial to assessing the determinants of peace.
Summer 2009
"Correspondence: Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Andrew Barros, Talbot C. Imlay, Evan Resnick, Norrin M. Ripsman and Jack S. Levy
Andrew Barros, Talbot Imlay, and Evan Resnick reply to Norrin Ripsman and Jack Levy's Fall 2008 International Security article, "Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s."
Summer 2009
"The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality? A Review Essay"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Christopher Layne, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1995-1996
Over the next two decades, international politics will be shaped by whether the international system remains unipolar or is transformed into a multipolar system. Can the United States sustain its primacy? Or will the emergence of new great powers reorder the distribution of power in the international system?
Summer 2009
"Speed Kills: Analyzing the Deployment of Conventional Ballistic Missiles"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
The United States, if it works to mitigate the risk of misperception and an inadvertent nuclear response, should deploy near-term conventional ballistic missiles (CBMs) in support of the prompt global strike (PGS) mission. The prompt response of CBMs would likely be sufficient to defeat many time-sensitive, soft targets, provided actionable intelligence was available.
Summer 2009
"The Limits of Coercive Airpower: NATO'S 'Victory' in Kosovo Revisited"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
Despite NATO's overwhelming strategic superiority, Milošević was able to reject his adversary's terms of surrender until his political position became untenable. This suggests that airpower may have greater limitations as a tool of statecraft than its supporters maintain.
Summer 2009
"Ending the Korean War: the Role of Domestic Coalition Shifts in Overcoming Obstacles to Peace"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
Bargaining models of war suggest that war ends after two sides develop an overlapping bargaining space. Through preference, information, and entrapment obstacles, wars can become "stuck" and require a change in expectations to produce a war-terminating bargaining space. A major source of such change is a shift in belligerents’ governing coalitions.
AP Photo
Summer 2009
"Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements"
International Security, issue 1, volume 34
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom
Matthew Fuhrmann's article "Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," was published by in the Summer 2009 issue of International Security. In his article, Dr. Fuhrmann argues "Peaceful nuclear cooperation—the transfer of nuclear technology, materials, or know-how from one state to another for peaceful purposes—leads to the spread of nuclear weapons. With a renaissance in nuclear power on the horizon, major suppliers, including the United States, should reconsider their willingness to assist other countries in developing peaceful nuclear programs."
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Spring 2009
"Insure to Assure: A New Paradigm for Nuclear Nonproliferation and International Security"
Innovations, issue 2, volume 4
By Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."
Photo by Jeffrey Bielicki
Forthcoming
"Optimal Spatial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Given a Price on Carbon Dioxide"
International Regional Science Review, Special Issue for ISOLDE XI
By Michael J. Kuby, Jeffrey Bielicki, Former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, 2006–2009 and Richard S. Middleton
Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) links together technologies that separate carbon dioxide (CO2) from fixed point source emissions and transport it by pipeline to geologic reservoirs into which it is injected underground for long-term containment. Previously, models have been developed to minimize the cost of a CCS infrastructure network that captures a given amount of CO2. The CCS process can be costly, however, and large-scale implementation by industry will require government regulations and economic incentives. The incentives can price CO2 emissions, through a tax or a cap-and-trade system, or involve the purchase of CO2 by oil companies for enhanced oil recovery from depleted oil fields.
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July 6, 2009
"Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters"
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
By Shoibal Chakravarty, Ananth Chikkatur, Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy, Heleen de Coninck, Stephen Pacala, Robert Socolow and Massimo Tavoni
The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a 2-tier world. It called upon the developed ("Annex I") countries to "take the lead" in reducing carbon emissions, and, under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," established no time frame for developing countries to follow. However, a consensus is now emerging in favor of low stabilization targets. These targets cannot be achieved without the participation of developing countries, which today emit about half of global CO2 emissions and whose future emissions increase faster than the emissions of industrialized countries under "business as usual" scenarios.
