OCCASIONAL PAPERS
July 1998
"NATO After Madrid: Looking to the Future"
volume 1
By Coit Blacker, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1975-1977, Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities, Warren Christopher, Dr. William J. Perry, Former Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project and David Hamburg, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
This conference report offers recommendations for U.S. policy and action in the next phase of NATO's evolution, assuming that the Senate and other allied legislatures do in fact consent to the decisions reached at Madrid to admit Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic to NATO.
February 1998
"No Peace, No War in the Caucasus: Secessionist Conflicts in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh"
This monograph offers a current analysis of the three most important secessionist conflicts in the Caucasus: Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In Chechnya, after the outbreak of war in 1994, the ferocious resistance of the Chechens, the collapse of the Russian military, and a popular backlash in Moscow against the war resulted in a tentative peace treaty in August 1996. Since then, neither Russia nor Chechnya has been able to find a creative middle ground that can reconcile the Chechen desire for independence with Russian fears of a "domino effect" and the rupture of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. In Nagorno-Karabakh, a cease-fire has held since May 1994. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have gradually been moved toward a compromise solution by the OSCE, but the Karabakh Armenians are holding out for the ultimate ruling of the political status of the territory. In February 1998, just after Dr. Walker completed his paper, domestic disagreement in Armenia over prospect of a compromise solution for Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in the resignation of President Levon Ter-Petrossian. In Georgia, civil war and military collapse forced Tbilisi to end its assault on Abkhazia in 1993, but neither Moscow nor a United Nations mission has since been able to bring the two sides together. In their state of "no peace, no war," the three conflicts continue to pose the most serious obstacle to the long-term stability and development of the Caucasus region.
1987
"Does Strategic Defense Breed Offense?"
By Herbert York, Albert Carnesale, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities, George Rathjens and Stephen P. Rosen
Occasional Paper from the Center for Science and International Affairs
