October 16, 2013
Viktor Yesin analyzes important nuances in the behavior and thinking of the American and Soviet leaders during the Cuban Missile Crisis, building upon an evolving body of work surrounding the events of October, 1962.
Foreword by Graham Allison and Andrei Kokoshin.
October 2, 2013
By Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Kuznetsov Valentin, Martin B. Malin, Executive Director, Project on Managing the Atom, Yuri Morozov, Simon Saradzhyan, Director, Russia Matters Project; Assistant Director, U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Viktor I. Yesin and Pavel S. Zolotarev
The 2011 “U.S. - Russia Joint Threat Assessment” offered both specific conclusions about the nature of the threat and general observations about how it might be addressed. This report builds on that foundation and analyzes the existing framework for action, cites gaps and deficiencies, and makes specific recommendations for improvement.
September 30, 2013
By Matthew Bunn, Professor of Practice; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom, Kuznetsov Valentin, Yuri Morozov, Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Simon Saradzhyan, Director, Russia Matters Project; Assistant Director, U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Viktor I. Yesin and Pavel S. Zolotarev
Even as this paper was being written and edited, U.S.-Russian relations have warmed and chilled. Today, as we are about to go to press, marks a particularly chilly period in recent history, with the cancellation of a planned Moscow Summit in September 2013. To some, this cold spell might signal an inapt moment to consider issues related to transcending mutual deterrence. Such a view would overlook the aims of the paper, which attempts to assess the central and enduring interests of the United States and Russia, the extent to which they coincide or conflict, and whether or not in light of these interests mutual deterrence should remain a fundamental feature of the relationship.
July 9, 2013
HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal’s new plan boldly picks up the challenge. He has recognized that, in his words, “there is no more pressing international threat to peace and security than the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their possible use.” A veteran of international diplomacy, he understands that the path leading towards the summit of a world without nuclear weapons will be a long and hazardous climb. But he believes that real victories can be gained, and the security ofthe world enhanced, by aiming for achievable intermediate goals along the way.
July 1, 2013
The United States and India have a strong and shared interest in preventing extremist groups from using Afghanistan as a base from which to launch terror attacks. If our two countries work together to foster stability in Afghanistan without provoking a counterproductive Pakistani response, we can further our Strategic Partnership and advance peace and security in South Asia.
"Lessons on the Value of a Military Fellowship, North Korea & Iran's Nuclear Pursuits, and the Evolving Cyberspace Domain"
By Troy Endicott, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2012–2013
This paper briefly covers three topics of interest—a description of the author's fellowship and its value, how nuclear weapons are still "game changers" on the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and how the cyberspace domain is reshaping military activities and doctrine in the 21st Century.
By David Kelley, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2012–2013
"The military buildup by China, its Asia-Pacific neighbors and the United States is creating a classical security dilemma that is increasing the potential for military conflict in the region. Although history is replete with conflicts between existing and rising powers, conflict between China and the United States is not preordained. Opportunities exist in both the diplomatic and military arenas for both countries to actively engage the other in open and direct communication to increase transparency, reduce tensions, and improve understanding. It is in the best interest of the United States, China and countries around the world to confront the reality that is a rising nuclear-armed China and, in doing so, manage its accession into the regional and world order without conflict."
By Nawaf Obaid, Visiting Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
"The so-called Arab Spring has ushered in a great deal of hope that a number of Arab states might begin to develop and engender more socially responsive, economically prosperous and politically progressive indigenous conditions," writes Nawaf Obaid.
"Unfortunately, in the nine Arab nations I analyze here -Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Jordan and Iraq - this does not seem to be the case. Indeed, one might say that some or all of these nations are far worse off than they were before their social upheavals."
This report summarizes the context of natural gas development in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan), assesses the major risk factors and opportunities, and presents a financial model for natural gas development projects.
"Temporary Workers or Permanent Migrants? The Kafala System and Contestations over Residency in the Arab Gulf States"
By Noora Lori, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, August 2012–July 2013; Former Research Fellow, Dubai Initiative, September–December 2011
The Arab Gulf is the third largest receiving region for global migrants (after North America and the European Union). The six states of the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) are the richest Arab economies, boast some of the highest GDP per capita rankings in the world, and they all depend upon guest workers in virtually every economic sector. Guest workers have played an integral role in the Gulf since the 1970s, supplying the skills and manpower needed to implement ambitious development plans. This paper examines the formal and informal institutions that support the inward flows of large numbers of foreign laborers while excluding non-citizens from full integration into Gulf societies.