POLICY MEMOS
AP Photo
August 2009
"Improving U.S.-China Relations: The Next Steps"
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program; Director, Project on U.S.-China Relations
A higher Renminbi will have two advantages: for the United States, it will help to equilibrate the past trade imbalance; for China, it will stimulate consumption (and enhance imports). It will therefore help China switch from a purely exporting strategy to one that maintains domestic growth through internal consumption. The goods that were to be sent abroad can now be consumed by an increasingly middle class nation at home. These steps will bring China and the United States closer economically and increase international stability. However, unless the military-security relations of the two countries improve, this will not be a sufficient remedy for the two nations' long term problems.
AP Photo
June 2009
"Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps"
By Thomas M. Nichols, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.
AP Photo
January 2009
"Re-Plan Colombia"
By Sarah Zukerman Daly, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Intrastate Conflict Program
"The financial crisis will require a reevaluation of U.S. aid. Critics of Plan Colombia argue that, in Colombia, union leaders remain at risk, human rights abusers are not brought to justice, the military commits "false positives," and drug eradication has failed. Based on this record, they conclude that the U.S. should reduce or withhold aid from Colombia. This is unsound advice. Colombia has made great advances against the guerrillas and paramilitaries because of U.S. aid. Some 340 politicians who conspired with paramilitaries, 3,000 paramilitaries who committed crimes against humanity, and 14 perpetrators of abuses against union leaders face prosecution because of U.S. aid. These advances in security, justice and democracy would not have occurred without U.S. assistance. However, the critics are not wrong; there is much work left to be done."
AP Photo
August 2009
"Improving U.S.-China Relations: The Next Steps"
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program; Director, Project on U.S.-China Relations
A higher Renminbi will have two advantages: for the United States, it will help to equilibrate the past trade imbalance; for China, it will stimulate consumption (and enhance imports). It will therefore help China switch from a purely exporting strategy to one that maintains domestic growth through internal consumption. The goods that were to be sent abroad can now be consumed by an increasingly middle class nation at home. These steps will bring China and the United States closer economically and increase international stability. However, unless the military-security relations of the two countries improve, this will not be a sufficient remedy for the two nations' long term problems.
AP Photo
June 2009
"Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps"
By Thomas M. Nichols, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.
AP Photo
August 2009
"Improving U.S.-China Relations: The Next Steps"
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program; Director, Project on U.S.-China Relations
A higher Renminbi will have two advantages: for the United States, it will help to equilibrate the past trade imbalance; for China, it will stimulate consumption (and enhance imports). It will therefore help China switch from a purely exporting strategy to one that maintains domestic growth through internal consumption. The goods that were to be sent abroad can now be consumed by an increasingly middle class nation at home. These steps will bring China and the United States closer economically and increase international stability. However, unless the military-security relations of the two countries improve, this will not be a sufficient remedy for the two nations' long term problems.
July 2009
"How Do We Know This is Not Another Great Depression? Lessons for Policymakers from the 1930s"
By Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth
The current economic crisis is fundamentally different from those we have experienced in recent past. The proximate causes of previous recessions (1980-2 and 1990-91) were increases in interest rates in response to inflation. This time around, however, low interest rates and loose monetary policy during the period 2003-2005 had contributed to a bubble in asset prices, rather than to inflation. This – coupled with an underestimation of risk in our financial system, failures of corporate governance, and excessive debt by both households and government – caused the crisis of 2007-09.
July 2009
"The Governance Crisis: First, Let’s Redefine the CEO Role"
By Ben Heineman, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The witch's brew of high leverage, poor risk management, creation of toxic assets and poor business judgments-all made more poisonous by excessive short-term executive pay-are unprecedented failures of financial sector directors and CEOs. The result: credibility has eroded, trust has dissolved and financial re-regulation seems inevitable.
AP Photo
June 2009
"Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps"
By Thomas M. Nichols, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.
AP Photo
May 5, 2008
Preventing Terrorist Attacks: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom
By Erik J. Dahl, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008
Why do terrorist attacks frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that warnings had been available but were either misunderstood or ignored? Conventional wisdom, as seen in the 9/11 Commission Report, holds that disasters such as the 9/11 attacks have been caused by failures of analytical imagination, a lack of long-term strategic intelligence on the threat, and organizational limitations that prevent the U.S. intelligence community from being able to “connect the dots” of the existing intelligence.
