WORKING PAPERS
April 17, 2008
Economic Analysis of the Nurse Shortage in Egypt
By Marwa Farag, Research Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
The health sector in Egypt suffers from a severe shortage of qualified nurses (nurses with at least 2 years of post high school nursing education) and a much less apparent perceived/real shortage of all-type nurses. This paper examines the nurse labor market in Egypt for evidence of such shortages and explores potential reasons behind them. It was submitted as part of the Dubai School of Government's working paper series.
For the full text, click here.
AP Photo
April 2008
"Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam's Global Gathering"
By Asim Khwaja, Faculty Affiliate, The Dubai Initiative, David Clingingsmith and Michael Kremer
This working paper, co-authored by DI Faculty Affiliate Asim Khwaja, argues that the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca increases observance of global Islamic practices while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs. The authors' evidence suggests that these changes are more a result of exposure to and interaction with Hajjis from around the world, rather than religious instruction or a changed social role of pilgrims upon return.
Down the full text for free here.
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March 14, 2008
"Legalizing Nuclear Abandonment: The Determinants of Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty Ratification"
By Matthew Fuhrmann, Affiliate, Project on Managing the Atom and Xiaojun Li
Matthew Fuhrmann and co-author Xiaojun Li examine when and why states ratify regional nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) treaties.
February 2008 (Revised May 2008)
"Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq"
By Jonathan Monten, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2007 and Radha Iyengar
"Are insurgents affected by new information about the United States' sensitivity to costs? Using data on attacks and variation in access to international news across Iraqi provinces, we identify an "emboldenment" effect by comparing the rate of insurgent attacks in areas with higher and lower access to information about U.S. news after public statements critical of the war. We find that in periods after a spike in war-critical statements, insurgent attacks increases by 7–10 percent, but that this effect dissipates within a month. Additionally, we find that insurgents shift attacks from Iraqi civilian to U.S. military targets following new information about the United States' sensitivity to costs, resulting in more U.S. fatalities but fewer deaths overall. These results suggest that there is a small but measurable cost to open public debate in the form of higher attacks in the short-term, and that Iraqi insurgent organizations — even those motivated by religious or ideological goals — are strategic actors...."
February 2008
"Giving Green to Get Green: Incentives and Consumer Adoption of Hybrid Vehicle Technology"
By Kelly Sims Gallagher, Senior Associate, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group and Erich Muehlegger
Federal, state and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. The authors study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the value of the tax incentive.
January 3, 2008
"Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea"
By Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder and John Park, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
"Beijing viewed North Korea's explosion of a nuclear device in October 2006 as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but also an act of defiance toward China. Chinese officials admit that their toolbox for managing the North Korean nuclear weapons challenge must now include a combination of pressure and inducements."
January 2008
"The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security"
By Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra K. Decker, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing "nuclear renaissance." We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market—historically and prospectively—and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
December 11, 2007
"U.S. Primacy, Eurasia's New Strategic Landscape, and the Emerging Asian Order"
By Alexander Vuving, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2005-2007; Former Associate, International Security Program, 2007-2008
This paper argues that the current structure of international power in Asia is transitional. But neither hegemony nor multipolarity will likely be the next Asian order. The paper then assesses the prospects of the emerging regional order in Asia in terms of four options: bipolarity, the East Asian Community, U.S.-China condominium, and shared leadership. The paper concludes by discussing how Southeast Asian countries should prepare for the future strategic environment.
October 2007
"A U.S. Cap-and-Trade System to Address Global Climate Change"
By Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government; Member of the Board; Director, Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements
In a paper commissioned by the Brookings Institution's Hamilton Project, Stavins, the co-director of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements (HPICA) proposes "a specific cap-and-trade system with several key features including: an upstream cap on CO2 emissions with gradual inclusion of other greenhouse gases; a gradual downward trajectory of emissions ceilings over time to minimize disruption and allow firms and households time to adapt; and mechanisms to reduce cost uncertainty."
May 2007
Political Islam in Egypt
By Emad Shahin, Former Faculty Affiliate, The Dubai Initiative
The landscape of political Islam in Egypt has changed dramatically over the past decade and a half. Since the mid-1990s, the country's mainstream Islamic movement, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB, or Muslim Brothers), has undergone a significant transformation; an Islamist centrist party, Hizb al-Wasat, has emerged and for the past ten years has been struggling to acquire official recognition; and the country's radical movements, especially the Jama`a Islamiya, have reassessed some of their tactics.
