AFRICA
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By Maria Stephan, Former Research Fellow, Intrastate Conflict Program/International Security Program, 2003-2005 and Erica Chenoweth, Associate, International Security Program
The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.
Summer 2008
"Divining Nuclear Intentions: A Review Essay"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova
Although projections of nuclear proliferation abound, they rarely are founded on empirical research or guided by theory. Even fewer studies are informed by a comparative perspective. The two books under review—The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, by Jacques Hymans, and Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen, are welcome exceptions to this general state of affairs, and represent the cutting edge of nonproliferation research. Both works challenge conventional conceptions of the sources of nuclear weapons decisions and offer new insights into why past predictions of rapid proliferation failed to materialize and why current prognoses about rampant proliferation are similarly flawed. While sharing a number of common features, including a focus on subsystemic determinants of national behavior, the books differ in their methodology, level of analysis, receptivity to multicausal explanations, and assumptions about decisionmaker rationality and the revolutionary nature of the decision. Where one author emphasizes the importance of the individual leader’s national identity conception in determining a state’s nuclear path, the other explains nuclear decisions primarily with regard to the political-economic orientation of the ruling coalition. Notwithstanding a tendency to overinterpret evidence, the books represent the best of contemporary social science research and provide compelling interpretations of nuclear proliferation dynamics of great relevance to scholars and policymakers alike.
June 30, 2008
"Get Biotechnology on the Agenda for Africa"
Op-Ed, The Japan Times
By Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International Development; Director, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project; Principal Investigator, Agricultural Innovation in Africa
"Leaders at the Group of Eight industrialized nations' summit in Hokkaido next month need to take strong measures to promote cooperation in using biotechnology to address Africa's food challenges. At present there is resistance from Europe, and even Japan is dragging its feet on this vital issue....While the claims about risks need to be addressed, they no longer carry the same stigma worldwide. South America and Asia have in many cases leapfrogged into the genomics age through the adoption of biotechnology while its use in Africa remains largely marginal."
AP Photo
June 25, 2008
"Who Will Have the Courage to Save Zimbabwe?"
Op-Ed, Boston Globe
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
AFTER Idi Amin terrorized and killed his own Ugandans throughout the 1970s, President Julius Nyerere of neighboring Tanzania finally sent his army across the border to end the mayhem and restore stability. Who will now do the same for beleaguered Zimbabwe?
AP Photo
June 17, 2008
"Japan and African States Discuss Future Partnership"
Op-Ed, Online Publication
By Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International Development; Director, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project; Principal Investigator, Agricultural Innovation in Africa
Japan announced it will double its aid to Africa over the next five year at the Fourth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD IV) held in Yokohama on May 28–30, 2008....TICAD IV marked a clear departure from previous development conferences, which focused largely on Africa’s immediate crises and challenges, such as corruption and poor governance. Instead, it stressed the importance of human resource development (including higher education and vocational training), industrial development, infrastructure, and trade.
June 2008
"The Truth about Food"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Prospect, issue 147
By Robert Paarlberg, Former Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, 2007-2008
"...it is a mistake to see high prices as a proxy for actual hunger. Most of the world's hungry citizens do not get their food from the world market, and most who rely on the world market are not poor or vulnerable to hunger."
May 29, 2008
"Net Access for African Universities Would Boost Continent"
Op-Ed, Daily Yomiuri
By Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International Development; Director, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project; Principal Investigator, Agricultural Innovation in Africa
"African universities could be the continent's gateways into the global knowledge economy for local diffusion of new technologies. But this potential remains unrealized because universities and research institutes in Africa remain digitally isolated from the rest of the world. This is partly because of government neglect and lack of strategic policies on Internet access....Providing low-cost, high-speed Internet access to African universities will help Africa build the capacity it needs to solve its own problems. It is one of the most strategic investments that the G-8 countries can make in Africa in the coming few years."
AP Photo
May 6, 2008
"Winning the African Prize for Repression: Zimbabwe"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
After much delay, the “official” presidential election results in Zimbabwe were finally announced last week (May 2, 2008). While opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, won the majority vote (47.9% to Robert Mugabe’s 43.2%), because the 50% minimum that is needed to win outright was not reached, a run-off will take place. This second round leaves Zimbabweans and the international community certain that Robert Mugabe will continue his use of intimidation, force, and violence to secure his re-election.
Spring 2008
"Postconflict Resolution in Africa: Flawed Ideas about Failed States"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 4, volume 32
By Pierre Englebert and Denis M. Tull
Africa has the highest percentage of failed states in the world, making it a top priority for external donors engaged in state reconstruction. Yet such efforts have a poor record of success because of three flawed assumptions shared by many donors: first, Western state institutions can be transferred to Africa; second, donors and African leaders have the same understanding of failure and reconstruction; and third, donors are capable of rebuilding Africa states. In contrast, Uganda and Somaliland have succeeded in rebuilding and without external assistance. This success suggests that donors should shift their efforts toward encouraging indigenous state-building efforts and constructive bargaining between local groups and the governments of failed African states.
April 28, 2008
International Security Program "Paths to Violence" Research Workshop
News
The International Security Program (ISP) at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs hosted a research workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 25, 2008. Workshop organizers Erica Chenoweth (ISP) and Adria Lawrence (ISP/Intrastate Conflict Program) brought together leading scholars to explore the conditions under which non-state actors resort to violence and the various strategies state actors use to address aggrieved populations. Workshop participants addressed issues such as why the use of violence varies among non-state actors, how the decision to use violence affects strategic outcomes of internal and international conflicts, and how states arrive at decisions to accommodate, assimilate, or ethnically cleanse minority groups. Participants received feedback on original research papers prepared in advance of the workshop. The final drafts of the papers will be compiled into an edited volume, which will be submitted for review in fall 2008.
