By Zhu Liu
Climate change driven by anthropengic carbon emissions is one of the
most serious challenges facing human development. China is currently
the world’s largest developing country, primary energy consumer,
and carbon emitter. The nation releases one quarter of the global total
of carbon dioxide (9.2 Gt CO2 in 2013), 1.5 times that from the US.
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the growth in global carbon emission
between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Without mitigation, China’s
emissions could rise by more than 50% in the next 15 years. Given
the magnitude and growth rate of China’s carbon emissions, the country
has become a critical partner in developing policy approaches to
reduce global CO2 emissions.
China is a country with significant regional differences in terms of
technology, energy mix, and economic development.1 Understanding
the characteristics and state of regional carbon emissions within China
is critical for designing geographically appropriate mitigation policies,
including the provincial cap and trade system that is projected to be
lanuched in 2017. In this study, I summarize the key features and drivers
of China’s regional carbon emissions and conclude with suggestions
for a low carbon policy for China.
The principal findings are:
(1) Provincial aggregated CO2 emissions increased from 3 billion tons
in 2000 to 10 billion tons in 2016. During the period, Shandong province
contributed most to national emissions, followed by Liaoning,
Hebei, and Shanxi provinces. Most of the CO2 emissions were from raw
coal, which is primarily burned in the manufacturing and the thermal
(2) Significant differences exist among provinces in terms of CO2 emissions.
Analyses of per capita emissions and emission intensity indicate
that provinces located in the northwest and north had higher per capita
CO2 emissions and greater emission intensities than the central and
southeast coastal regions. Developing areas have intensive resource use and their economic structure is dominated by heavy industries with higher
sectoral emission intensity. These areas contribute to most of the growth
in national emissions and are the main drivers of China’s carbon intensive
(3) An analysis of the factors that affect China’s CO2 emissions shows that
technology heterogeneity is directly connected to China’s carbon growth.
The dissimilar rate of adoption of energy efficient technologies among
regions is a major barrier to China’s CO2 mitigation, and thus needs more
attention from researchers and policy makers.
October 20, 2016
Op-Ed, The Huffington Post
"As the U.S. Congress considers the appropriate role for the federal government in the encryption debate, policymakers should be mindful of the impact of their actions both within and beyond the United States. To date, the U.S. and Europe are on one side of an Internet governance spectrum favoring the multi-stakeholder status quo with India in the middle, followed by China, and Russia undertaking the most state-centric approach to both Internet governance generally and encryption specifically."
"When It Is Unfamiliar To Me: Local Acceptance Of Planned Nuclear Power Plants In China In The Post-Fukushima Era"
Many contributions have been made in the studies of the factors that influence public acceptance of nuclear power. However, previous studies seldom focused on nuclear power plants in the planning stage. Actually public perception is usually more sensitive at the preliminary planning stage of a nuclear power station. Mainly utilizing questionnaire survey and focus group methods, we have identified the factors that are correlated with local acceptance of planned nuclear power plants in China.
October 20, 2016
Journal Article, Small Wars Journal
By Jessica Malekos Smith, Postdoctoral Fellow, Cyber Security Project
"Admittedly, international norms do not blossom into fully-grown gardens overnight. What the CEPP Test does offer, however, is a proverbial seed, which if properly cultivated could take root in the international legal system."
October 17, 2016
Op-Ed, Just Security
By Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
As a life-long observer of Russia, I have never been as concerned as I am now on the state of Russian-American relations.
October 16, 2016
Op-Ed, Foreign Policy
By Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs; Faculty Chair, International Security Program
"...[T]he well-intentioned Western effort to create a new Afghan state from scratch was equally misguided, as the new constitution envisioned a centralized, Western-style government in Kabul that was at odds with Afghan history and traditions. It also presumed a level of administrative competence and a revenue base that far exceeded Afghan capacities. Yet none of the international participants who embraced this outcome seemed to realize they had taken on an unrealistic and open-ended burden and that the new Afghan state would be dependent on lavish outside support more or less indefinitely."
October 11, 2016
Op-Ed, Foreign Policy
By Emile Simpson, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program
"...Saudi Arabia's energetic and ambitious young deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, appears to see beyond the immediate threat of U.S. shale to the Saudi oil industry....He is focused on the broader need for major reform of the Saudi economy. Climate change will plainly be a major problem of the 21st century, and the world is moving away from fossil fuels: game over for an unreformed Saudi Arabia."
October 6, 2016
Op-Ed, Project Syndicate
By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor
In many Western democracies, this is a year of revolt against elites. The success of the Brexit campaign in Britain, Donald Trump’s unexpected capture of the Republican Party in the United States, and populist parties’ success in Germany and elsewhere strike many as heralding the end of an era. As Financial Times columnist Philip Stephens put it, “the present global order – the liberal rules-based system established in 1945 and expanded after the end of the Cold War – is under unprecedented strain. Globalization is in retreat.”
In fact, it may be premature to draw such broad conclusions.
Some economists attribute the current surge of populism to the “hyper-globalization” of the 1990s, with liberalization of international financial flows and the creation of the World Trade Organization – and particularly China’s WTO accession in 2001 – receiving the most attention. According to one study, Chinese imports eliminated nearly one million US manufacturing jobs from 1999 to 2011; including suppliers and related industries brings the losses to 2.4 million.
In September of 1991, I met with Russian general officers in Minsk at a military reform seminar. Our discussions took place against the backdrop of the August coup attempt in Moscow, the subsequent collapse of Soviet power, and the so-called parade of sovereignty by former Soviet Republics. At the same time, President Yeltsin was signaling his intent to change dramatically the national security strategy, military doctrine, and military system the Soviet Union had developed since the 1940s.
October 2, 2016
Journal Article, Global Summitry
By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
This article reviews the motivations, strengths, and weaknesses of the Nuclear SecuritySummits (NSS), both procedurally and substantively.