CENTRAL ASIA
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By Maria Stephan, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program/Intrastate Conflict Program and Erica Chenoweth, Associate, International Security Program
The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.
Summer 2008
"The Window of Vulnerability That Wasn’t: Soviet Military Buildup in the 1970s—A Research Note"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By Pavel Podvig
The Soviet strategic modernization program of the 1970s was one of the most consequential developments of the Cold War. Deployment of new intercontinental ballistic missiles and the dramatic increase in the number of strategic warheads in the Soviet arsenal created a sense of vulnerability in the United States that was, to a large degree, responsible for the U.S. military buildup of the late 1970s and early 1980s and the escalation of Cold War tensions during that period. U.S. assessments concluded that the Soviet Union was seeking to achieve a capability to fight and win a nuclear war. Estimates of missile accu¬racy and silo hardness provided by the U.S. intelligence community led many in the United States to conclude that the Soviet Union was building a strategic missile force capable of destroying most U.S. missiles in a counterforce strike and of surviving a subsequent nuclear exchange. Soviet archival documents that have recently become available demonstrate that this conclusion was wrong. The U.S. estimates substantially overestimated the accuracy of the Soviet Union's missiles and the degree of silo reinforcement. As the data demonstrate, the Soviet missile force did not have the capability to launch a successful first strike. Moreover, the data strongly suggest that the Soviet Union never attempted to acquire a first-strike capability, concentrating instead on strategies based on retaliation.
July/August 2008
"Separatism's Final Country"
Journal Article, Foreign Affairs, issue 4, volume 87
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program and Arthur A. Stein
"Muller argues that ethnonationalism is the wave of the future and will result in more and more independent states, but this is not likely. One of the most destabilizing ideas throughout human history has been that every separately defined cultural unit should have its own state. Endless disruption and political introversion would follow an attempt to realize such a goal. Woodrow Wilson gave an impetus to further state creation when he argued for "national self-determination" as a means of preventing more nationalist conflict, which he believed was a cause of World War I...."
May 6, 2008
"Turkmenistan under Niyazov and Berdymukhammedov"
In the News
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
A monument of Turkmenistan’s former autocratic ruler, Saparmurat Niyazov, will be removed from the center of the country’s capital, the New York Times reported on Monday, May 5, 2008. The removal was ordered by Turkmenistan’s current president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. What seems to be a symbolic move away from the repression that has plagued Turkmenistan is more likely the removal of one autocratic legacy to make room for another.
AP Photo
April 14, 2008
"Separating Tibet and the Olympics"
Op-Ed, The Boston Globe
By Xiaohui (Anne) Wu, Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom
"Some people believe it is fair to vent their grievances with China, but don't see any unfairness in depriving China and its people of the dream to host the Games. In both 1936 and 1948, Chinese Olympian athletes had to detour through Asia to raise fund for their trips by performing in competitions. They ended up exhausted and defeated in the Olympics. It would be equally unfair to deprive the world's athletes of their dreams and the chance to compete in the most important global athletic competition."
December 11, 2007
"U.S. Primacy, Eurasia's New Strategic Landscape, and the Emerging Asian Order"
Working Paper
By Alexander Vuving, Former Research Fellow and Associate, International Security Program
This paper argues that the current structure of international power in Asia is transitional. But neither hegemony nor multipolarity will likely be the next Asian order. The paper then assesses the prospects of the emerging regional order in Asia in terms of four options: bipolarity, the East Asian Community, U.S.-China condominium, and shared leadership. The paper concludes by discussing how Southeast Asian countries should prepare for the future strategic environment.
November 2007
"Energy Supply and Demand in Eurasia: Cooperation between EU and Iran"
Journal Article, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, issue 4, volume 5
By Abbas Maleki, Former Senior Research Associate, International Security Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy
Energy diversification has emerged as one of the most important priorities for a majority of the European countries and the EU. Growing energy demand in Europe combined with a high reliance on Russia as an energy producer have led the EU to look to the Caspian Sea region for alternative energy resources, especially in natural gas. Iran has the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world and could assist Europe in diversifying supplies. This article argues that there is substantial potential for energy cooperation between Iran and the European countries, particularly Turkey. Increased Iranian participation in the Eurasian energy market, both as consumer and producer, could lead to other benefits including economic development and more efficient energy extraction.
October 2007
Tajiks Wrestle with Identity and Islam
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Far Eastern Economic Review, issue October 2007
By Susan Sypko, Research Assistant
When asked about the greatest difference between Muslims in Tajikistan and Muslims in other countries, Davlatmo Ismailova — or “Fatima,” as she prefers to be called—tells me that other Muslims have more freedom. Fatima would know. She is suing Tajikistan’s Ministry of Education for not allowing her to wear the hijab to her university classes.
(AP Photo)
October 7, 2007
"Playing Favorites on Dictators Robs U.S. of High Ground"
Op-Ed, Chicago Tribune
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
Myanmar (formerly Burma) is among the four most repressive countries on Earth, and President Bush is right to strengthen sanctions against the junta of aging generals who have pummeled protesting monks in their monasteries. But what about equally odious regimes with which Washington maintains cordial relations despite appalling human-rights records?
September 2007
"Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline: Is It a Peace Pipeline?"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, MIT Center for International Studies Audit of the Conventional Wisdom, issue 16, volume 7
By Abbas Maleki, Former Senior Research Associate, International Security Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy
A major natural gas pipeline that would stretch from the fields of southern Iran to Pakistan and India — itself a remarkable prospect — is being planned. But it faces serious hurdles, not least the fierce opposition of the U.S. government.
