CASPIAN SEA REGION

January 6, 2002

Kazakhstan's Antinuclear Role

Op-Ed, Boston Globe

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Opened in September, this pipeline has a capacity of 1 million barrels a day. Furthermore, Kashagan field has been acclaimed as the most significant new discovery of reserves in the past quarter-century.

When President Bush met with Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the White House in December, they discussed Kazakhstan's new role in world energy and the campaign against terrorism. The meeting resulted in a joint statement that affirmed their strategic partnership and a US intention to help Kazakhstan integrate more fully into the global economy.

While this meeting addressed important goals, it should also have underlined the significant role Kazakhstan has played in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Nazarbayev now has an opportunity to extend that legacy by leading the negotiations for the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty.

Winter 2001/02

"The United States and Terroism in Southwest Asia: September 11 and Beyond"

Journal Article, International Security, issue 3, volume 26

By Samina Ahmed, Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, 1998-2002

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, have changed the international environment in ways that few would have imagined when the new millennium began. International Security rarely commissions articles, but the extraordinary events of September 11 deserve attention in these pages.

April 30, 2001

"U.S. Policy on Caspian Energy Development and Exports: Mini-Case and Paradigm"

Paper

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Drawing on the Caspian Studies Program's ongoing research, my colleague Emily Van Buskirk and I prepared a case on U.S. policy on Caspian energy development and exports for a Kennedy School course I teach with Ambassador Robert Blackwill. Using the case, our sixty students examined central questions including: What is the most effective way to promote the development of Caspian energy resources? What is the proper role of government in large-scale capital projects? Where does the Caspian Basin rank in the hierarchy of U.S. national interests?

April 2001

"The Future of Gas Infrastructures in Eurasia"

Journal Article, Energy Policy, issue 5, volume 29

By Jimin Zhao, Former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, 2000-2003

The IIASA-WEC study global energy perspectives emphasized trends toward cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient final energy forms, delivered chiefly by energy grids, and noted potential energy infrastructure deficiencies in Eurasia.

December 21, 1999

The 'Democratic Presumption' is Taking Hold in Russia

Op-Ed, Boston Globe

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Sunday's stunning victory for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his supporters in the new Unity Party surprised most observers. Just three months ago when Russian President Boris Yeltsin made Putin prime minister, knowledgeable Muscovites dismissed the Kremlin entourage as politically spent. It was judged too corrupt and too incompetent to matter.

March 1999

Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America

Book

By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities and Dr. William J. Perry, Former Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project

"The most important book by any ex-Clinton official."

-Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times (April 16, 1999)

February 1998

"No Peace, No War in the Caucasus: Secessionist Conflicts in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh"

Occasional Paper

By Edward Walker

This monograph offers a current analysis of the three most important secessionist conflicts in the Caucasus: Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In Chechnya, after the outbreak of war in 1994, the ferocious resistance of the Chechens, the collapse of the Russian military, and a popular backlash in Moscow against the war resulted in a tentative peace treaty in August 1996. Since then, neither Russia nor Chechnya has been able to find a creative middle ground that can reconcile the Chechen desire for independence with Russian fears of a "domino effect" and the rupture of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. In Nagorno-Karabakh, a cease-fire has held since May 1994. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have gradually been moved toward a compromise solution by the OSCE, but the Karabakh Armenians are holding out for the ultimate ruling of the political status of the territory. In February 1998, just after Dr. Walker completed his paper, domestic disagreement in Armenia over prospect of a compromise solution for Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in the resignation of President Levon Ter-Petrossian. In Georgia, civil war and military collapse forced Tbilisi to end its assault on Abkhazia in 1993, but neither Moscow nor a United Nations mission has since been able to bring the two sides together. In their state of "no peace, no war," the three conflicts continue to pose the most serious obstacle to the long-term stability and development of the Caucasus region.

April 1, 1996

Russia's Loose Nukes a Serious Threat to US

Op-Ed, The Houston Chronicle

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

The greatest single threat to the security of America today, and indeed the world, is the threat from loose nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material from Russia. "Loose nukes' - the loss, theft or sale of weapons-usable nuclear materials or nuclear weapons themselves from the former Soviet arsenal - is not a hypothetical threat; it is a brute fact. Since the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the number of reported, suspected and documented cases of diversion of weapons-usable nuclear material has been increasing steadily.

Spring 1992

Can The U.S. Promote Democracy?

Journal Article, Political Science Quarterly, issue Spring 1992, volume 107

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Is it possible for the U.S. to promote democracy and pluralism?? The democratic revolutions of 1989, coupled with the retreat of authoritarian regimes in Latin America and part of Asia and Africa, have prompted a resurgence of interest throughout the U.S. government and society at large in promoting democracy.

March 29, 1992

The Soviet Arsenal and the Mistaken Calculus of Caution

Journal Article, Washington Post

By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project (on leave), Harvard & Stanford Universities and Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School

Op-ed by Dr. Ashton B. Carter and Dr. Graham T. Allison in The Washington Post